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July 2014 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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The signal has only been getting stronger the last 3-4 days so it might be legit. Won't know until we get more into medium range.

The 6 hourly cfs panels show an apps runner followed by cold/dry for the 4-6th. I don't post that stuff. lol

:lol: Plenty of time for a cad wedge to develop in front of it.

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12z euro ens backed off on the retrograding the trough idea and moved the axis further east. Pattern holds for 5 days and slowly flattens. Relatively cool dry air would lock in here for 3-5 days verbatim. July 4th weekend trended this way going in. This signal is stronger at the same leads. Tues-Wed next week would be the beginning. We'll see how it goes but odds of another unusual July airmass are increasing. 

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Tues-Sun period looks about as nice as you could ever ask for in July. The entire period looks below normal on means and even if we spike on westerly flow it will be low dew heat. I'm sure we'll sneak in some warmth but I wouldn't be shocked if we didn't see 90 the entire period (except for dca of course) but climo says I'm nuts for such crazy thoughts.

Probably a contest worthy stretch. Something like high max / low max / low min at each airport.

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Wed-Fri IMBY according to accuwx:

82/60, 84/59 and 84/63. Unheard of for mid-July. Those seem like pretty significant departures.

Usually our big - departures in July are from clouds/rain not a Canadian airmass. What makes this pattern interesting is that isn't not a hit and run. Closed ull dives and crawls through the gl region. Pretty atypical for July. First shot comes in Tues-Wed and then looks like a reinforcing shot 2-3 days later. It's hard to buy in but it's been showing for days now.

Even down the line is zero signs of an ec ridge. The pattern flattens but the overall ridge west / trough east seem to hold through the end of the run and beyond. Just not very amplified so we can be plenty warm in that setup.

Euro weeklies agree with the overall lw pattern through the end of July. Killer month if it verifies.

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