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July 2014 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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This is the first 4th of July I can ever recall where everyone had jackets or fleeces on for fireworks. Currently 59 degrees with a nice breeze that makes it feel even cooler. Low is forecast to be around 50 with lows around 40 in upstate PA. 2014 is the year where there just seems to be a ton of cold air available and easily taped into. Feels like an October evening tonight.

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From LWX AFD

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
133 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

IN PRVS DSCN WROTE ABT BWI TYING ITS RECORD LOW FOR 7/5 W/ A
READING OF 55. BUT IN LOOKING AT OBS ARND OUR CWA BAYARD WV GOT
DOWN TO 41...BUT THE COLDEST SPOT WAS IN HIGHLAND CO - 38!


HIGH PRES RMNS IN CONTROL OF MID ATLC WX TNGT. CLR SKIES...LOWS
ONLY A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN LAST NGT - MAJORITY OF AREA WL FALL
INTO THE 50S...60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY...40S IN THE HIGHLANDS.
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Sadly, we roast the first few days of next week.

Eh, not too terrible for July. We avg like 2 weeks of 90s in July in DC. More like any day that's not 90 is a present this time of year.

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Eh, not too terrible for July. We avg like 2 weeks of 90s in July in DC. More like any day that's not 90 is a present this time of year.

Yeah 3 days of low 90s with relatively low dew points is nothing to complain about. We are entering the hottest climo period for the next month, so temps in the neighborhood of 90 is the norm.

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Yeah 3 days of low 90s with relatively low dew points is nothing to complain about. We are entering the hottest climo period for the next month, so temps in the neighborhood of 90 is the norm.

You. We all know that it could be much worse, so I don't get too worked up over a few days of low 90s right now. As long as temps drop a bit at night, it's all good.

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I should amend...I will roast in my suit.  :axe:

 

 

I can't believe we are already nearing peak climo for the year. This time of year reminds me that football is right around the corner.

50 some odd days til the first college football game. Won't be long til we get the first awesome cold front passage in September.

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There's a growing signal for another solid BN airmass in a week+/-. PNA ridge spikes and an anomalous trough digs into the MW-OV. Does it clear the EC? Climo fights hard in July to not let that happen but it looks encouraging on the means. Even if a front stalls and washes like the one progged later this week it keeps us in the 80's. I agree with Ian's post earlier. Below 90 in July is a gift.

If I saw the h5 mean anomaly on today's euro during the winter I would be thinking snow.

There are zero signs of any heatwave at least. I'm kinda stoked right now. We'll see how it plays out.

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Don't make me wish it were winter.

Lol- I'm thoroughly enjoying summer so far. Fri-sat were ridiculous for July. The signal for the cool temps showed far in advance too. It's intriguing to see another signal starting to show. It's awful tough in July to get a deep frontal passage around here. We can only hope....

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Euro 5 day mean from the 13th-18th (GEFS agrees). It looks cooler than it actually is. Coldest 850/surface anoms centered over mw/gl/ov. The wildcard is subtle changes in trough axis can greatly affect our area. We need a decent front to clear down to NC to get into the really nice air for more than a day or 2. ML flow still looks to be biased sw on the means. 

 

post-2035-0-86220200-1404824891_thumb.jp

 

 

The pattern retrogrades on on both the euro ens and gefs so that's a pretty big hint not to be bullish. IMO- looks like a decent stretch of highs in the 80's with manageable dews but not as sweet at the 4th. If the latest trends are right, the pattern breaks down with a warm front pressing north as the trough axis retros west. Could be wet along the boundary but just tossing out random thoughts. Pretty long leads and low confidence. 

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Euro 5 day mean from the 13th-18th (GEFS agrees). It looks cooler than it actually is. Coldest 850/surface anoms centered over mw/gl/ov. The wildcard is subtle changes in trough axis can greatly affect our area. We need a decent front to clear down to NC to get into the really nice air for more than a day or 2. ML flow still looks to be biased sw on the means.

euro5mean.JPG

The pattern retrogrades on on both the euro ens and gefs so that's a pretty big hint not to bullish. IMO- looks like a decent stretch of highs in the 80's with manageable dews but not as sweet at the 4th. If the latest trends are right, the pattern breaks down with a warm front pressing north as the trough axis retros west. Could be we along the boundary but just tossing out random thoughts. Pretty long leads and low confidence.

Bob, you're a kid in the candy store with those wxbell maps :). Only bad thing is now you aren't lasered in on the cfs2 forecasts for Dec 5

I'll be indebted to you if you bring another cool shot home.

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Bob, you're a kid in the candy store with those wxbell maps :). Only bad thing is now you aren't lasered in on the cfs2 forecasts for Dec 5

I'll be indebted to you if you bring another cool shot home.

 

The signal has only been getting stronger the last 3-4 days so it might be legit. Won't know until we get more into medium range.

 

The 6 hourly cfs panels show an apps runner followed by cold/dry for the 4-6th. I don't post that stuff. lol

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