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July 2014 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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Haven't started a thread for a long time. Interesting week of weather on tap. Hot and stormy then below normal and dry plus the added kicker of a tropical system.

Looking beyond has mixed signals. Another cool shot down the line but latest euro ens doesn't clear it this far east. Coolest anoms centered over the northern plains/upper mw. GEFS has a nice ridge west/trough east look in the d11-15 range but lala and climo lead to little confidence. Wouldn't take much to get a front to clear us. We'll see how it shakes out over the next week.

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Maybe I'm reading them wrong, but it appears that the NAM and GFS have stepped back from us getting a ton of precip from the tropical system. Tomorrow certainly looks like something to keep an eye on with regards to severe.

Feed into the approaching front/trough doesn't look good attm for areas west of 95. Approach is a bit late for a nice team up.

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Everyone's talking about the ts. Ironically it will be about as cool and sunny as we can possibly get on july 4th.

 

There have been coolish (70s) days on the 4th, but many of them have rain.  The most recent really nice, dry day looks like 1996 with a high of 78 and a low of 60 at DCA.  2009 was good with 84/63.

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After a two mile walk, I can confirm that it does feel like 100 outside. 

Jealous of all the people at Freedom Plaza sitting on cement with no shade watching the game. 

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Hit 96 earlier. By far, the hottest day of the year so far here.

 

Hottest here too, high 94.5  spent several hours at the pool with my daughter and water was perfectly refreshing. 

 

Counting down to the ideal July 4th. 

 

Grass is really browning up here, wondering if the consistent wet until lately left the roots shallow?

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Still plush and green here. Over 17" of rain in the 11 weeks of the growing season. Every week has featured at least one downpour, (except for a week in the second half of May.). Another one just went through with some thunder. Knocked the temp back to the low 80's. Garden going gangbusters, but have had to cut the grass 3 times in the last 13 days.

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Got shafted. Main part of the storm went just to my North. Light rain and thunder with occasional lightning. 

We seem to have the "Southern Frederick Split" going on the past month.  Stuff goes to our north and/or hits northern Mo Co!  I was going to BBQ a pizza tonight, but it started raining right as I was about to start the grill.  Wound up cooking it in the oven instead.  When it comes out of the oven....the rain is ending.

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

324 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-502-021530-

/O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0001.140702T1600Z-140702T2300Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-

PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

KING GEORGE-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...

BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...

MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...

FREDERICKSBURG

324 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS

EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO

7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...AROUND 105 DEGREES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE

MID TO UPPER 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

* IMPACTS...RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE WITHOUT AIR-

CONDITIONING OR THOSE OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.

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