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PRE July 2-4th


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Most models still have some showers at least for most of the day. Might still clear in time for the fireworks Friday night.

Thanks. Hopefully the front speeds the departure up and salvage more of the day.

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Most models still have some showers at least for most of the day. Might still clear in time for the fireworks Friday night.

 

Looks like the rain ends by the afternoon west to east and there may be some clearing by sunset.  Hoping the front speeds up also, the models usually are too slow but with Arthur and strong ridge over the Atl it will be interesting.

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It will probably clear up quickly behind Arthur-more often than not departing tropical systems bring dry air quickly from the west.

Indeed. Are the showers leftover on Friday a result of the wraparound from Arthur? I remember during Sandy we saw more rain from the wraparound showers than from the main show itself. It would suck if we had borderline squalls pushing through the area during the day Friday.

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Its been a while for one of these pb

Would amount to  bad luck if a strong line crashing into some Southerly hot humid flow yielded zero . 

So I like tomorrow a little better than today for more wide spread "stuff" . 

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not sure how you get that...minimal rain for most of us friday, ending west to east before fireworks...from what this could of been it looks much improved

I think we are fine for the fireworks. There might be some showers still in the afternoon.

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Tornado Warning for Sullivan county:

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1242 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT.

* AT 1238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
HURLEYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WOODBOURNE...WOODRIDGE AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEVERSINK BY 1250 PM
EDT...
6 MILES SOUTH OF GRAHAMSVILLE BY 100 PM EDT...

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
1-888-603-1402...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected].

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM...AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4161 7474 4178 7482 4189 7447 4187 7445
4175 7456 4169 7446 4167 7445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 250DEG 23KT 4172 7467

$

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95% likelyhood of watch coming for the entire area shortly:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1254.html

Nice, latest HRRR looks keep the strongest of the activity north of us now though

"BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM WEST TO EAST AND BECOME   SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS"

This will be key to watch for

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not sure how you get that...minimal rain for most of us friday, ending west to east before fireworks...from what this could of been it looks much improved

Besides waves, this isn't going to be a big deal for any of us. 1-3" of rain isn't going to cause any major problems. The only place that might have more severe impacts is outer Cape Cod and the Islands, and even there it might be more along the lines of a brief 40-50 mph wind event and heavy rain.

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WFUS51 KCTP 021701
TORCTP
PAC081-021730-
/O.NEW.KCTP.TO.W.0008.140702T1701Z-140702T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
101 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LYCOMING COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 101 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HUGHESVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUNCY...HUGHESVILLE...LAIRDSVILLE...BIGGERTOWN AND PICTURE ROCKS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4116 7659 4115 7663 4115 7668 4116 7670
4118 7678 4130 7682 4134 7664 4130 7658
4128 7646 4127 7645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 257DEG 25KT 4123 7668


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Flash flood watch for tomorrow into Friday...

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH

FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE, FOR CECIL

COUNTY IN MARYLAND, FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SUSSEX,

WARREN, MORRIS, HUNTERDON, SOMERSET, MIDDLESEX, MERCER, WESTERN

MONMOUTH, NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER AND SALEM,

AND FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON, MONROE,

NORTHAMPTON, LEHIGH, BERKS, CHESTER, MONTGOMERY, BUCKS,

PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE.

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER OUR

REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL

INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES

WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG

STREAMS AND CREEKS, ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE FLOODING MAY OCCUR QUICKLY IN THE HEAVIEST OF THE DOWNPOURS

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Tornado Warning for Sullivan county:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

1242 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT.

* AT 1238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR

HURLEYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

WOODBOURNE...WOODRIDGE AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEVERSINK BY 1250 PM

EDT...

6 MILES SOUTH OF GRAHAMSVILLE BY 100 PM EDT...

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT

1-888-603-1402...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected].

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT

OR AN INTERIOR ROOM...AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

I'm up in sullivan county for the summer, very intense storms from around 12:45-3:30 pm got about 4 inches of rain in that time period. I'm in liberty at 1,550 feet. West of us in jeffersonville they evacuated part of the town due to 3 feet of water on Main Street. They got over 5 inches in about 2 hours. What a day, now atmosphere has stabilized it's 72 and sun peeking out between clouds.

LAT...LON 4161 7474 4178 7482 4189 7447 4187 7445

4175 7456 4169 7446 4167 7445

TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 250DEG 23KT 4172 7467

$

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So it went from a washout on friday to mostly dry.. lol..what can I say ..is the GFS

I think it dries out easily in time for fireworks and probably for afternoon. This storm has tons of dry air west of it and as soon as winds turn westerly behind it things will clear out. This is NBD for any of our area besides surf.
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