Sundog Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Most models still have some showers at least for most of the day. Might still clear in time for the fireworks Friday night. Thanks. Hopefully the front speeds the departure up and salvage more of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Most models still have some showers at least for most of the day. Might still clear in time for the fireworks Friday night. Looks like the rain ends by the afternoon west to east and there may be some clearing by sunset. Hoping the front speeds up also, the models usually are too slow but with Arthur and strong ridge over the Atl it will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Thanks. Hopefully the front speeds the departure up and salvage more of the day. It will probably clear up quickly behind Arthur-more often than not departing tropical systems bring dry air quickly from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 It will probably clear up quickly behind Arthur-more often than not departing tropical systems bring dry air quickly from the west. Indeed. Are the showers leftover on Friday a result of the wraparound from Arthur? I remember during Sandy we saw more rain from the wraparound showers than from the main show itself. It would suck if we had borderline squalls pushing through the area during the day Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 This could be a nice show for many - as this comes through in the face of S flow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 This could be a nice show for many - as this comes through in the face of S flow .we have an EML today so instability extends out over the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 we have an EML today so instability extends out over the ocean . Think Tomorrow is the better day all the way to the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 we have an EML today so instability extends out over the oceanI noticed that upton included Nassau county under the slight risk for severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I noticed that upton included Nassau county under the slight risk for severe storms. Just a friendly fyi - The Storm Prediction Center issues that product, not the local NWS office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Just a friendly fyi - The Storm Prediction Center issues that product, not the local NWS office.oh yeah, I knew that! Sorry, that's what you get when you have to type on your phone. I guess i just felt like calling it upton for some reason. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for much of PA and NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 This could be a nice show for many - as this comes through in the face of S flow . Its been a while for one of these pb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 we have an EML today so instability extends out over the ocean Yea we might pull this one off with some luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 12z GFS looks terrible for tomorrow and Friday with Arthur crossing the benchmark for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Its been a while for one of these pb Would amount to bad luck if a strong line crashing into some Southerly hot humid flow yielded zero . So I like tomorrow a little better than today for more wide spread "stuff" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 12z GFS looks terrible for tomorrow and Friday with Arthur crossing the benchmark for the coast not sure how you get that...minimal rain for most of us friday, ending west to east before fireworks...from what this could of been it looks much improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 not sure how you get that...minimal rain for most of us friday, ending west to east before fireworks...from what this could of been it looks much improved I think we are fine for the fireworks. There might be some showers still in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 We have cape 3500-4000 over much of NJ now with mid level lapse rates approaching 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Tornado Warning for Sullivan county: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY1242 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...* UNTIL 115 PM EDT.* AT 1238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ASEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEARHURLEYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...WOODBOURNE...WOODRIDGE AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEVERSINK BY 1250 PMEDT...6 MILES SOUTH OF GRAHAMSVILLE BY 100 PM EDT...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TOTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT1-888-603-1402...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected].PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENTOR AN INTERIOR ROOM...AWAY FROM WINDOWS.&&LAT...LON 4161 7474 4178 7482 4189 7447 4187 74454175 7456 4169 7446 4167 7445TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 250DEG 23KT 4172 7467$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 95% likelyhood of watch coming for the entire area shortly: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1254.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 95% likelyhood of watch coming for the entire area shortly: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1254.html Nice, latest HRRR looks keep the strongest of the activity north of us now though "BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM WEST TO EAST AND BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS" This will be key to watch for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 not sure how you get that...minimal rain for most of us friday, ending west to east before fireworks...from what this could of been it looks much improved Besides waves, this isn't going to be a big deal for any of us. 1-3" of rain isn't going to cause any major problems. The only place that might have more severe impacts is outer Cape Cod and the Islands, and even there it might be more along the lines of a brief 40-50 mph wind event and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 WFUS51 KCTP 021701 TORCTP PAC081-021730- /O.NEW.KCTP.TO.W.0008.140702T1701Z-140702T1730Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 101 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN LYCOMING COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 130 PM EDT * AT 101 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HUGHESVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MUNCY...HUGHESVILLE...LAIRDSVILLE...BIGGERTOWN AND PICTURE ROCKS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 14. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 4116 7659 4115 7663 4115 7668 4116 7670 4118 7678 4130 7682 4134 7664 4130 7658 4128 7646 4127 7645 TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 257DEG 25KT 4123 7668 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Watch just posted for metro area unti 9PM. SPC upgraded north NJ to 30% wind. Also upgraded metro area to slight risk tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Flash flood watch for tomorrow into Friday... .FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE, FOR CECIL COUNTY IN MARYLAND, FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SUSSEX, WARREN, MORRIS, HUNTERDON, SOMERSET, MIDDLESEX, MERCER, WESTERN MONMOUTH, NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER AND SALEM, AND FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON, MONROE, NORTHAMPTON, LEHIGH, BERKS, CHESTER, MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE. * FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING * A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS, ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE FLOODING MAY OCCUR QUICKLY IN THE HEAVIEST OF THE DOWNPOURS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Tornado Warning for Sullivan county: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1242 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... * UNTIL 115 PM EDT. * AT 1238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HURLEYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... WOODBOURNE...WOODRIDGE AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEVERSINK BY 1250 PM EDT... 6 MILES SOUTH OF GRAHAMSVILLE BY 100 PM EDT... WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-888-603-1402...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected]. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. && I'm up in sullivan county for the summer, very intense storms from around 12:45-3:30 pm got about 4 inches of rain in that time period. I'm in liberty at 1,550 feet. West of us in jeffersonville they evacuated part of the town due to 3 feet of water on Main Street. They got over 5 inches in about 2 hours. What a day, now atmosphere has stabilized it's 72 and sun peeking out between clouds. LAT...LON 4161 7474 4178 7482 4189 7447 4187 7445 4175 7456 4169 7446 4167 7445 TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 250DEG 23KT 4172 7467 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Gfs is mostly dry now from midday Friday on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Gfs is mostly dry now from midday Friday on So it went from a washout on friday to mostly dry.. lol..what can I say ..is the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 So it went from a washout on friday to mostly dry.. lol..what can I say ..is the GFSI think it dries out easily in time for fireworks and probably for afternoon. This storm has tons of dry air west of it and as soon as winds turn westerly behind it things will clear out. This is NBD for any of our area besides surf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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