IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Here are WPC's latest thoughts... From the PRE/Stalled front And from TD#1/Future Arthur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 The 03z SREF's like the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 03z SREF had a max of 7.16" at Caldwell with 8 members over 2". Also the western half of the forum is in a slight risk for day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 verbatim looking at today's runs, would appear the best shot for rains are from the the front-doubt the synoptic rains from the TC or TD make it up here. Assuming that's true, the rains would likely be localized with some areas not seeing alot and vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I hope that doesn't pan out. I'm really enjoying the mt bike trail conditions just as they are, tired of mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 From Tuesday - Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 From Tuesday - Sunday That map was issued well before the new day 1-3. Not sure how accurate it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Seems that the later your July 4 festivities take place, the less chance that it will still be raining at that time. Anyone know the average end time for any precip. to still be occuring for the major models? GFS could go into evening, CMC ends it before sunset etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Seems that the later your July 4 festivities take place, the less chance that it will still be raining at that time. Anyone know the average end time for any precip. to still be occuring for the major models? GFS could go into evening, CMC ends it before sunset etc. The 00z ECMWF clears out between 18z and 00z but it's a bit of an eastern outlier at this point. The wildcard would be if the actual TC brushes the coast or not. The general theme has been 00z runs east, 12z west. We'll see if that holds up today or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 verbatim looking at today's runs, would appear the best shot for rains are from the the front-doubt the synoptic rains from the TC or TD make it up here. Assuming that's true, the rains would likely be localized with some areas not seeing alot and vice versa Yep . Could be a downpour in one area and no big deal in the other. Would love for the front to keep moving faster and we get less then a inch of rain. Then Friday sat sun are gems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Would be great to get a few inches of rain as things have been drying up immensely. The more rain the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Only 6 out of 51 00z ECMWF ensemble members had less than an inch of rain. 28 had at least 2". About 10 had 3" or more. The mean was 1.65" at KEWR, 1.85" at Lincoln Park Airport, 1.85" at Caldwell Airport, 1.50" at Teterboro Airport, 1.50" at KLGA and the same at KJFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Would be great to get a few inches of rain as things have been drying up immensely. The more rain the better.Yeah just 0.25" here past 18 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Yeah just 0.25" here past 18 days. It's been dry enough here that river flooding shouldn't be an issue unless we get both the pre and the TC. Seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 HWO out for the NYC metro area. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...OVER THIS THREE DAY PERIOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Yeah 1-2 inches will not be a big deal with the dry ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 The 12z GFS fires activity before 09z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 0.50-0.75" through 48 hours on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Main show around here looks to be Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 RGEM through 12z Thursday with the main show to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Euro fires storms around 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Would be great to get a few inches of rain as things have been drying up immensely. The more rain the better. I'll send you all the mud and mosquitos. Actually I'd be fine with it if it rains on LI and not the LHV for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 The 15z SREF's are really juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We all know what will wind up happening--this will all dry out and we will be high and dry. Dry breeds dry. We are in a dry pattern, and I see no sign of that changing anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We all know what will wind up happening--this will all dry out and we will be high and dry. Dry breeds dry. We are in a dry pattern, and I see no sign of that changing anytime soon. Depends where you're located. Those of us who have seen plentiful convection, there's mushrooms growing in the backyard, like right here. I've had 5.4" of rain in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 what do you all think about rain chances today and tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 what do you all think about rain chances today and tomorrow? Today is just afternoon pop-up storms, that could be strong-severe. Tomorrow has rounds of showers and t-storms throughout the entire day. Flashing flooding is the bigger threat tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Today is just afternoon pop-up storms, that could be strong-severe. Tomorrow has rounds of showers and t-storms throughout the entire day. Flashing flooding is the bigger threat tomorrow. Does Friday still look nasty or are we clearing out the tristate in time for all day outdoor events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Does Friday still look nasty or are we clearing out the tristate in time for all day outdoor events? Most models still have some showers at least for most of the day. Might still clear in time for the fireworks Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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