wxmx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Agree completely ScreenHunter_85 Jul. 02 19.01.png The three vortex marks to the left are the AF fixes (very slight west tilt), the three to the right are NOAA's Orion vortex marks (very slight east tilt)....for all practical purposes it is moving due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The three vortex marks to the left are the AF fixes (very slight west tilt), the three to the right are NOAA's Orion vortex marks (very slight east tilt)....for all practical purposes it is moving due north. Yeah, plus the fixes from both aircraft are so close to each other - probably is wobbling back and forth at times but seems north is the best direction estimate now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Do you think this thing will undergo RI during the next 24 hours? If this does happen, will the strength affect the track? It's probably undergoing one RIC at the moment...if it strengthens to 85kts before this time tomorrow, it'll be considered a RIC. Arthur is already well stacked vertically, and the feature that's going to steer the cyclone is at the mid/upper levels, so further strengthening will probably not cause any significant change in the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Earlier water vapor animation I am appreciating wxmx's suggestion to be clear and concise about these water vapor images being shared; in this case it is to continue to show the history of this system's meteorological surroundings, as i feel that is my best contribution to make as an amateur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Down to 990 MB, closed eyewall, and a 5 degree temperature difference. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 23:33ZAircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 6Observation Number: 20A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 23:11:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°07'N 79°11'W (30.1167N 79.1833W)B. Center Fix Location: 128 miles (206 km) to the ENE (61°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,346m (4,416ft) at 850mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SW (235°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 321° at 55kts (From the NW at ~ 63.3mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SW (235°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,509m (4,951ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Closed M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the SSE (151°) from the flight level center at 21:37:30ZMaximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (49°) from the flight level center at 23:18:50ZRemarks Section - Additional Remarks...CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 115 / 4 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 NOAA's latest pass found a pressure of 984.5 They are running about 4mb lower than vortex sondes...My guess is that the vortex msg will show a central pressure of around 990mb Edit: and there it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Yep just saw that, still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The center fixes were roughly 15 to 20 minutes apart from each aircraft, one at 5k ft the other at 10k ft and the fixes have been about 5-8 miles apart, probably due to the fact that he's still a strong/weak TS/Hurricane. It's getting it's act together fairly quickly but the lower level and mid level circulations aren't quite in sync yet and are still probably ever so slightly wobbling around each other and not completely stacked. That should settle down and become more symmetrical with time. It's really splitting hairs, it's moving due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Does anyone have a link showing lightning activity in the vicinity of Arthur? That's a key indicator as to whether we have RI on our hands. http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Arthur's finally developing strong convection in the SW quadrant...real RI should commence shortly. SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...30.2N 79.2WABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINAABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Arthur's finally developing strong convection in the SW quadrant...real RI should commence shortly. SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 79.2W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Lightning activity is picking up somewhat in Arthur http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 That last AF hurricane hunter pass dropped a sonde in the NE eyewall and recorded 79kts at 950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 That last AF hurricane hunter pass dropped a sonde in the NE eyewall and recorded 79kts at 950mb.Do you think the NHC will upgrade Arthur to hurricane status with the next update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 That last AF hurricane hunter pass dropped a sonde in the NE eyewall and recorded 79kts at 950mb. Do you think the NHC will upgrade Arthur to hurricane status with the next update? Based on that measurement and assuming it isn't convectively enhanced I think its possible. I'd still like to see some higher FL winds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The extrapolated surface pressure on this pass from the NOAA recon is 4mb lower than last pass (986mb to 982mb). Still waiting on the dropsonde but it seems likely we'll see a ~987mb fix on this pass. edit: And a westward jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Dropsonde with 988 MB pressure and a 10 knot wind at splashdown. Looks like 987 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 00:44ZAircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 8Observation Number: 29A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 0:21:29ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°14'N 79°08'W (30.2333N 79.1333W)B. Center Fix Location: 135 miles (217 km) to the ENE (58°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NNE (14°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 67kts (From the SE at ~ 77.1mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,395m (11,138ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,384m (11,102ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Not AvailableM. Eye Shape: Not AvailableN. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (119°) from the flight level center at 20:33:32ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 14°C (57°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the N (353°) from the flight level centerDropsonde Wind at Center: From 85° at 10kts (From the E at 12mph)Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...SEC MAX FL WIND 56 KT; BRNG:051 deg RNG:63 nmSPIRAL BANDING SOUTH AND EAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Dropsonde with 988 MB pressure and a 10 knot wind at splashdown. Looks like 987 MB. Intense lightning showing up now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Intense lightning showing up now... ScreenHunter_85 Jul. 02 20.52.png grearth 2014-07-02 20-52-12-38.png Winds don't seem to be reacting very much yet. If the pressure drop continues we'll probably have an upward reaction at some point later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Why does radar presentation look so bad all of a sudden? ? Or is it just the radar I was looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LHSnow Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Why does radar presentation look so bad all of a sudden? ? Or is it just the radar I was looking at? The storm is further from the coast and out of good radar range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Why does radar presentation look so bad all of a sudden? ? Or is it just the radar I was looking at? Dry air is still messing with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Could this be "The Great Mid Atlantic Independence Day Storm" ? We do not have much history on land falling east coast storms in July (Early July) that has formed in this location to my knowledge. At least not memorable ones. This thing could have something for the Outer Banks, North Carolina if not a little for Southside of Hampton Roads, Virginia. Only Hurricane Bertha (A July Storm) @ A Cape Verde one at that, come to mind. This thing is in a scary position here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Getting too far and it doesn't look bad. Should be more impressive by the 11pm advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looking at the radar, it appears dry air is still preventing him from getting completely organized.. Eye wall very disturbed by the looks of it... Here is WV loop May see some weakening for a little while? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Could this be "The Great Mid Atlantic Independence Day Storm" ? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Gotta remember the beam is scanning pretty high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Do you think the NHC will upgrade Arthur to hurricane status with the next update? If the surface winds are 60 knots, you would expect higher winds just aloft where frictional effects are not reducing the maximum sustained winds. Based on that measurement and assuming it isn't convectively enhanced I think its possible. I'd still like to see some higher FL winds though. Yea I don't think we are quite there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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