wxsouth Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 URPN12 KNHC 221917 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP172013 A. 22/18:57:30Z B. 16 deg 17 min N 101 deg 52 min W C. 700 mb 2964 m D. NA E. NA F. 299 deg 80 kt G. 226 deg 10 nm H. 989 mb I. 9 C / 3048 m J. 12 C / 3055 m K. 11 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C25 N. 12345 / 07 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF300 0117E RAYMOND OB 18 MAX FL WIND 80 KT 226/10 18:54:30Z MAX FL TEMP 12 C 226 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR Wrong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Wrong storm. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Wrong storm. Line "A" should have been a tip off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Line "A" should have been a tip off Yup, big derp on my part. Here's the correct VORTEX. Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 21:01Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF) Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014 Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 09 A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 20:29:08Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°44'N 79°06'W (29.7333N 79.1W) B. Center Fix Location: 122 miles (197 km) to the ENE (73°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the WNW (288°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 20° at 45kts (From the NNE at ~ 51.8mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WNW (285°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,405m (11,171ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,391m (11,125ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the northeast M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile O. Meteorological Accuracy: 6 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (119°) from the flight level center at 20:33:32Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 12°C (54°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the W (278°) from the flight level center Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... CNTR DROPSONDE WIND 180 / 04 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 18z gfs coming in further west. Looks like it is folding to other model guidance. This will be a nail bitter for the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 75kt at flight level (850mb) winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Impressive increase in FL winds in the southeast quad compared to the last pass. It looks like winds are beginning to respond upward. AF301 0601A ARTHUR HDOB 36 20140702212900 2925N 07836W 8430 01546 0080 +154 +148 215056 057 045 012 00212930 2926N 07838W 8425 01544 0085 +153 +153 214053 056 047 025 03213000 2927N 07839W 8436 01535 0075 +155 +154 219056 058 046 021 00213030 2928N 07840W 8428 01541 0067 +160 +149 218057 058 045 011 00213100 2929N 07841W 8429 01538 0065 +159 +149 217057 058 044 010 00213130 2931N 07843W 8429 01532 0061 +159 +153 216058 059 045 007 00213200 2932N 07844W 8430 01528 0057 +159 +156 217060 061 044 009 00213230 2933N 07845W 8429 01524 0052 +158 +157 218060 061 049 008 00213300 2934N 07847W 8430 01518 0050 +156 +156 217061 062 049 009 00213330 2935N 07848W 8428 01518 0047 +157 +157 218061 062 049 015 00213400 2936N 07849W 8432 01510 0046 +156 +156 221060 062 052 015 00213430 2937N 07851W 8428 01506 0036 +154 +153 221062 063 054 014 00213500 2939N 07852W 8432 01498 0023 +158 +150 223064 065 054 008 00213530 2940N 07853W 8429 01493 0014 +159 +151 223066 067 056 007 00213600 2941N 07854W 8431 01484 0005 +160 +159 228068 069 057 009 00213630 2942N 07855W 8432 01473 0000 +160 +160 228068 070 058 015 03213700 2943N 07857W 8439 01453 9994 +157 +157 223072 073 065 043 00213730 2944N 07858W 8409 01477 9976 +164 +164 235066 075 067 041 00213800 2945N 07859W 8436 01442 9970 +170 +170 243050 057 066 029 00213830 2946N 07900W 8431 01444 9966 +169 +169 241046 047 055 014 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 67 kt SFMR with 75 kt FL winds. SFMR with 1.61"/hr rain rate though, so that could be contaminated. SE Quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 GFS noticably west fwiw... locations into VA now appear to get more of an impact as well as pretty much the entire coast. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 With the recent trends, places like Chatham and Nantucket look to have a reasonable chance of getting Tropical Storm conditions. Notice I said CHANCE. Kind of sucks that miss this because I'll be in Hawaii.. Although I can't complain too much about that! What is the surf like on the Florida and Georgia coast right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 latest image of the visible, hot towers going up in the eye wall, this thing is really taking off http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=latlon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 With the recent trends, places like Chatham and Nantucket look to have a reasonable chance of getting Tropical Storm conditions. Its hard to get meaningful winds to the west of the center in a strong TS/Cat1 storm on Cape Cod especially early in the season. Ocean is pretty chilly. Rain will be the story, not wind. Maybe a few gusts in the 40's but no big deal, as long as the center stays east of Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 latest image of the visible, hot towers going up in the eye wall, this thing is really taking off http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=latlon They have been going all day. You only see them on the visible when the sun angle is low in the morning and evening. IR is better for spotting those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Been way too busy. Finally have time to sit down and now I'm overwhelmed with everything going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 000 URNT12 KNHC 022208 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014 A. 02/21:45:00Z B. 29 deg 58 min N 079 deg 11 min W C. 850 mb 1353 m D. 67 kt E. 138 deg 18 nm F. 235 deg 75 kt G. 138 deg 18 nm H. 991 mb I. 14 C / 1525 m J. 21 C / 1523 m K. NA / NA L. Open SE M. E08/32/28 N. 12345 / 08 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF301 0601A ARTHUR OB 15 MAX FL WIND 75 KT 138 / 18 NM 21:37:30Z MAX FL TEMP 21 C 149 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 080 / 08 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Look for an upgrade to hurricane status... D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks to be taking a jog west. The eye also seems to be shrinking in diameter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Lowest pressure was actually closer to 986 just NE of the VDM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 recon fixes confirm that movement as well not heading directly north, in the larger scale that could have huge implications down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Lowest pressure was actually closer to 986 just NE of the VDM ScreenHunter_85 Jul. 02 18.16.png The extrapolated 986mb obs was from the other aircraft...which is flying at a higher altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 recon fixes confirm that movement as well not heading directly north, in the larger scale that could have huge implications down the road. As a matter of fact, recon fixes show that it's moving due north...from both aircrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 wow looks like it's gonna be fun in Myrtle Beach Thursday night ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Convection really starting to pick up on the north side of the system compared to earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Little concerned about the dry air still located over GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Latest HRRR, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Based on the last 3 Vortex fixes from the AF HH, the track is slightly west of north at 356° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Based on the last 3 Vortex fixes from the AF HH, the track is slightly west of north at 356° yeah and when you look at the map of the last 3 fixes you can better see that it is not going directly north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 yeah and when you look at the map of the last 3 fixes you can better see that it is not going directly north Do you realize that 356° is almost due north, just missed the 360° heading by like 10 miles or less, well within the error bar of vortex fixes. Also, the NOAA Orion fixes are slightly east of north at about 4°...which makes it a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Do you realize that 356° is almost due north, just missed the 360° heading by like 10 miles or less, well within the error bar of vortex fixes. Also, the NOAA Orion fixes are slightly east of north at about 4°...which makes it a wash. Do you think this thing will undergo RI during the next 24 hours? If this does happen, will the strength affect the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Based on the last 3 Vortex fixes from the AF HH, the track is slightly west of north at 356° Agree completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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