nj2va Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 No decision as of their 1030 update from Dare County on OBX evacs. Next update not til 1730 which leads me to believe they will not issue mandatory evacs. Let our vacation continue! East trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 No decision as of their 1030 update from Dare County on OBX evacs. Next update not til 1730 which leads me to believe they will not issue mandatory evacs. Let our vacation continue! East trend is our friend. Are there any indications of an eastern trend at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Are there any indications of an eastern trend at this time? There's been an eastern trend over the past 36 hours, as I have pointed out many times. It was obvious from the beginning that this wasn't going to be much of an event for the Outer Banks. Expect TS winds and some moderate surf (nothing big due to Arthur's rather compact wind field). The hurricane-force winds will be SE of the center and offshore. A track over or east of the Outer Banks will only produce TS winds. The most reliable models are over or E of the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 There's been an eastern trend over the past 36 hours. It was obvious from the beginning that this wasn't going to be much of an event for the Outer Banks. Expect TS winds and some moderate surf (nothing big due to Arthur's rather compact wind field). HWRF, Navgem (a progressive model), GFS, and GEM all take it west of OBX. GFS ensembles, and most likely also the Euro ensembles are clustered right over OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 This short loop really shows the dramatic blocking/occlusion environment that has allowed cyclogenesis to take place and to continue. By mid to late evening this same satellite view will possibly show partial resolution, or otherwise continued tension between all of these systems. You can see the shortwave diving SE from Nebraska to Missouri that is going to kick this storm NE. This should allow Arthur to get pretty close to the Outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 There's been an eastern trend over the past 36 hours, as I have pointed out many times. It was obvious from the beginning that this wasn't going to be much of an event for the Outer Banks. Expect TS winds and some moderate surf (nothing big due to Arthur's rather compact wind field). The hurricane-force winds will be SE of the center and offshore. A track over or east of the Outer Banks will only produce TS winds. The most reliable models are over or E of the OBX. Since it was supposed to accelerate once it made it's NE turn on the track forecast cone, will it accelerate earlier if it trends further east than predicted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The inner core is attempting to consolidate. I think "dry air intrusion" has really been overused on here since the big blow up of convection that occurred last night has provided a favorable cocoon of mid-level moisture near the inner core. It just needed to mix out the the dry air that was already present over the llc last night when we saw the center relocation. In order to moisten up the atmospheric column you need some convection to dissipate so mixing with the non-saturated parcels can occur. TCs are their most effective as a heat engine when the thermodynamic profile is moist adiabatic at near saturation everywhere. Once that process is finished (as it appears to be doing here) we could see a more significant period of intensification. I still think the NHC forecast max intensity is probably going to end up on the low end when things are all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The gfs shows decent intensification between 24 and 48 hours. Loops like it hit's the outer banks. The strong small 700 low shown is a good sign it will be a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 There's been an eastern trend over the past 36 hours, as I have pointed out many times. It was obvious from the beginning that this wasn't going to be much of an event for the Outer Banks. Expect TS winds and some moderate surf (nothing big due to Arthur's rather compact wind field). The hurricane-force winds will be SE of the center and offshore. A track over or east of the Outer Banks will only produce TS winds. The most reliable models are over or E of the OBX. Your track forecast may yet verify, but if I remember correctly you were only calling for a "sheared 45 knot TC that was going to be quickly steered northeast... here we are 5 days later talking about a much more significant threat after it went substantially further south than originally forecasted when the MCV moved off the east coast. You might end up being correct about the track from here on out, but it might not necessarily be for the right reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 check out the visible loop, the eye is really starting to show itself in the last few frames. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=latlon Edit: Looking at the loop it looks like we are seeing the beginning stages of serious development, huge towers are now going up and trying to consolidate around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Just for historical context, Bertha 1996 was a cat2 landfall in July, and reached cat3 over the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Arthur would make history if it becomes a hurricane... since it would be the first hurricane to threaten the Outer Banks on the 4th of July since record keeping began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 No decision as of their 1030 update from Dare County on OBX evacs. Next update not til 1730 which leads me to believe they will not issue mandatory evacs. Let our vacation continue! East trend is our friend. Ocracoke will probably be one of the first to go mandatory, since only way on/off is by boat or ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I wouldn't be remotely confident this passes East of the OBX at all. The reliable models are much closer (or over) them and the "trend" to the East is far less than a lot of posts on this thread imply. And while model track accuracy has gotten astoundingly good the last few years a cone of uncertainty remains. Cape Hatteras or Lookout could easily get Right Front Quadrant winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 In addition, I am not sure we will see much weakening before Arthur gets to the latitude of the Outer Banks... SSTs > 28 C extend all the way to the Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The official NHC cone still goes as far west as mainland NC. It would seem premature to be ruling out solutions up the left side of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks to be taking a temporary jog with some west component too. I agree, looks like it really is ready to undergo some decent strenghtening. Burst of deep convection around center now happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Ocracoke will probably be one of the first to go mandatory, since only way on/off is by boat or ferry. Voluntary evacuation for Ocracoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Going to be interesting to see what recon finds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks like we have an eye thats open on the SE side but if that area of the eyewall closes then this will probably strengthen at a faster rate and would likely become stronger than the NHC has it at current Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Crazy they kept everything the same for 2pm, probably just waiting for the new info from the recon. On the latest visible image it looks like the explosion of thunderstorms patched that hole that was in the eye wall; also getting out of frame for the radar but that too looks like it filled in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Hard to imagine this is still only at 60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Hard to imagine this is still only at 60mph. They're probably waiting for additional recon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The new euro came back west some on the track; over Cape Hatteras at 970 mb edit:966 mb a couple miles to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 995.6mb extrap from 850mb, 63kt flight level winds on the SFMR 49kt with 2mm/hr precip rate, 53kt with 8mm/hr precip rate, and 58kt with 10mm/hr precip rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 fwiw, this is pretty close to the other models and their cluster. this is still an outer banks threat regardless of what's said. at least of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Take the arguing about mandatory evacuations to off topic or sub forums. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I have no idea why you are still replying. Source that please or be done with it. Here is a pretty good write-up about the evacuation stuff. Not just from the discussion, but anyone who'd like to learn about it living in NC. http://canons.sog.unc.edu/?p=5301 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Take the arguing about mandatory evacuations to off topic or sub forums. Thanks. Noted. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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