Eyewall2005 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Not even close... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BrgkTypCcAAuYD5.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Not even close... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BrgkTypCcAAuYD5.jpg How does one even go about confirming this without recon? GFS faster, interesting changes occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 we shall see later when recon gets out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 What has been the deal with all this mid-level low-level center issues with storms the last three hurricane seasons? Has to be dry air, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 What else is new we cant get a decent hurricane going in the atlantic. This basin just sucks the big one recent yrs. Everything is a struggle dry air,shear,vertical instability etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I don't quite understand the panic mode here, Arthur has 2.5 days to develop into a red meat TC. Latest infrared shows gradual wrapping in all quadrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 One full day of Arthur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I love calamity loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 What else is new we cant get a decent hurricane going in the atlantic. This basin just sucks the big one recent yrs. Everything is a struggle dry air,shear,vertical instability etc... Can we just wait and see what happens without these weenie posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 So, the while the "eye" on radar is correct in being the center of the storm, it is not an eye by definition. The definition of an eye is: We have criteria #1 met, which is the center, the problem comes with condition #2 which is that there is no eyewall at the moment, this is seen by looking at Infrared satellite and radar. IF there was an eyewall we would have cold cloudtops and high echo tops on radar. However, we don't. IR temps are in the -40's and echotops from Melbourne are only in the mid-20's. What we are seeing then is a different process from the definition of an eye. So what is happening now is that the wind surrounding the center of the circulation is throwing water droplets out from the center creating a "eye" where there are little/small water droplets left. Same thing happens on those mini-mery go rounds on playgrounds, any mass you put in the center will fly out to the outer rim. The same thing happens in real eye's too, but they have eye walls. Thanks for explaining... So we aren't there yet? Looks healthier than it has all day either way. Interested to see how this evolves over the next 24-48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 What else is new we cant get a decent hurricane going in the atlantic. This basin just sucks the big one recent yrs. Everything is a struggle dry air,shear,vertical instability etc... Oh boo hoo, quit crying about it and just wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Lol every single strong TC goes through this stage of their life where convection axis-symmetrizes. That's what's happening now. Is the center tilted? Maybe. Is that radar feature the low-level eye we consider the true eye?. No because the radar is looking too far aloft at this level. Could the low level eye be under this mid level eye feature? Possibly. We won't know till recon flies in. It's wrong to assume there is no eye because the brightness temps are not considered cold enough. There have been plenty of Hurricanes with warmer cloud top temps. However it's also wrong to assume there is a low level eye feature by looking at radar alone this far away until recon confirms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 It's a strengthening TC. It isn't an instantaneous process. Patience is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks so good on radar to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 One full day of Arthur. Stunning satellite image. Never gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 997.1mb extrap from 850mb. 850mb center roughly 28.2N, 79.1W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Also in the vortex message is denoted a Circular 36 nm wide eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Down to 997MB with an open eyewall. URNT12 KNHC 020642 CCAVORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014A. 02/06:07:20ZB. 28 deg 09 min N079 deg 08 min WC. 850 mb 1397 mD. 35 ktE. 294 deg 27 nmF. 021 deg 38 ktG. 294 deg 24 nmH. 997 mbI. 17 C / 1524 mJ. 20 C / 1520 mK. 6 C / NAL. OPEN NWM. C36N. 12345 / 8O. 0.02 / 1.5 nmP. AF303 0401A ARTHUR OB 05 CCAMAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT 129 / 37 NM 06:19:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Dropsonde in the center reported 18kts southerly winds at the sfc. So not exactly stacked, still tilted towards the east, but getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 NW part of the eye definitely collapsing on radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 It looks like dry air is infiltrating the west flank Looks like outflow is finally starting to become established as the CDO is expanding nicely in the latest IR loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 If Arthur becomes a hurricane (which seems rather likely), it will be the second earliest hurricane in 100 years to form in the w. Atlantic, north of 25N and west of 70W. The only earlier one would be Able in late May, 1951. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 A little mornin' video update on Arthur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 If Arthur becomes a hurricane (which seems rather likely), it will be the second earliest hurricane in 100 years to form in the w. Atlantic, north of 25N and west of 70W. The only earlier one would be Able in late May, 1951. Looking like a possible high end Cat.1 with a model or two getting up into Cat.2 territory. Modeling has really taken SC out of play as far as Arthur's track.. but the Outer Banks need to pay really close attention. What a bad weekend and set of decisions for those guys right to my North financially and safety wise... depending on ultimate speed of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 You can see on radar how the more intense convection remains in the southern half of the system. The more intense cellular and banded features are collocated with Zdr and Kdp enhancements resulting from a large population of medium-sized drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 One full day Here it is from a very wide perspective for two days; it isn't the clearest resolution of water vapor, but it is easy to see the most recent parts of cyclogenesis as well as the continuing presence of the western gulf low or overall large blocking/convolution area that has held the trough back for those two consecutive days. It is a very dynamic image to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 On the visible loop the storm is recovering nicely from the dry air that got to it this morning, outflow in all quadrants looks better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 This short loop really shows the dramatic blocking/occlusion environment that has allowed cyclogenesis to take place and to continue. By mid to late evening this same satellite view will possibly show partial resolution, or otherwise continued tension between all of these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 On the visible loop the storm is recovering nicely from the dry air that got to it this morning, outflow in all quadrants looks better as well. Certainly an unusual look for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 calm_days, you have to give better explanations of what we are looking at on those WV sat images. 'Tension', 'convolution', 'blocking', mean little and contribute even less to the understanding of the TC evolution. WV images usually are shown to highlight things like shear, upper level ventilation, dry air, or an overall picture of the conditions that lead to cyclogenesis, etc...in this latter case you need to explain how each of the most important features work in favor/against a TC or cyclogenesis...eg. "ULL pinching off from the Central Atlantic trough, will lead to a retreat of the aforementioned trough who has been plaguing the MDR with shear, and also provide ventilation to the TW currently at 45W as the ULL drops SW...". Hopefully I'm not coming off as rude, I'm honestly trying to enhance our level of discussions with richer posts from every member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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