Jackstraw Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I should've gone to the HDR site first, it does look like they are trying to take advantage of the opportunity with 2 science missions tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 This will probably be a huge bust if it were to just scrape the Outer Banks with the worst effects offshore…the potential for complacency is high, as so many systems in recent seasons have ended up east of the forecast models while sliding past the Carolinas. Even if Arthur were to become 85 kt or stronger, based on the current track and expected acceleration (to the NE) the Outer Banks would likely receive only TS winds--unless things change. Yeah but they cant assume anything with a track like that.....any deviation or wobbles to the west could go from TS winds to sustained hurricane with only a small change in overall track.....Irene is good example 3 days out she was forecast to be right over or just east of Hatteras but ended up 75 miles west of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 They will have to make some kind of call tomorrow, if this thing ends up a TS skirting to the east then they will catch hell for running everyone off even though its the right call. On th other hand if they dont do anything and we end up with a Cat 2 that goes west or over the OBX they will have 10's of thousands of people stuck on islands with no way off and no power, water etc. Its the big story around here...kind like Amity with the shark thing in teh movie Jaws, no one wants to pull the trigger on evacuations. If Arthur goes off tonight and we have a decent hurricane by noon tomorrow with forecast for a Cat 2 up this way they will have to go mandatory. I am sure all hotel rooms in my town will be gone by thursday as folks move inland but stay close enough to get back quick if it misses. Whatever happened to people making their own call? I hate to think that there are a million mindless drones out there waiting on the NHC to say stay or go away and have their own neck on the line. I guess I'm just a fossil from the past but I would rather the NHC relay warnings and such based on the information at hand as it comes without any interference in the way of a deadline regardless of a holiday in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Very cold cloud tops of -80C now showing up. I've included the latest HRRR wind fields as well. The greys/whites are associated with cloud temperatures of -68C and below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I should've gone to the HDR site first, it does look like they are trying to take advantage of the opportunity with 2 science missions tomorrow. HRD is busy, the HS3 team is kicking themselves. They have had the worst luck possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 HRD is busy, the HS3 team is kicking themselves. They have had the worst luck possible. Knowing the luck of the HS3 team their last 2 years, this might be the storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 00Z consensus guidance is east of the Outer Banks in three days, and I would be surprised to see any significant westward shifts in the upcoming days. Most likely the NC beaches will see TS winds AT MOST from this system. Upper-end Category 1 intensity for a peak is likely, but I am skeptical that this system will reach Category 2 intensity due to issues with dry-air intrusion from the west and cooler waters closer to the Outer Banks (i.e., north of the Gulf Stream). This system may be weakening by the time it bypasses Hatteras. I expect this sytem to peak about half a day earlier than what the most aggressive models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Eye like feature starting to appear on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Dry air is going to eat at this thing for the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 00Z consensus guidance is east of the Outer Banks in three days, and I would be surprised to see any significant westward shifts in the upcoming days. Most likely the NC beaches will see TS winds AT MOST from this system. Upper-end Category 1 intensity for a peak is likely, but I am skeptical that this system will reach Category 2 intensity due to issues with dry-air intrusion from the west and cooler waters closer to the Outer Banks (i.e., north of the Gulf Stream). This system may be weakening by the time it bypasses Hatteras. I expect this sytem to peak about half a day earlier than what the most aggressive models show. You have been consistently saying this for 4 days now. I am curious to see if this is a win or a loss for you personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Dry air is going to eat at this thing for the next couple of hours. There really isn't much dry air around it. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Eye like feature starting to appear on radar. Yeah, that's an eye forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 You can see on the water vapor, some dry air is eating at some of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 You can see on the water vapor, some dry air is eating at some of the convection. Well there is a pretty good line of convection pushing SE of the center, kind of the number 9 shaped as someone stated earlier so it's not a classic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Eye like feature starting to appear on radar. Right on cue with the latest HRRR run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 You can see on the water vapor, some dry air is eating at some of the convection. I don't think this is true. It looks to me like the convection is merely trying to take on a more curved appearance, and since the COC was never squarely under the coldest cloud tops to start with, it just appears like the thunderstorms are being eroded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Anyone know what the biases are for the HRW flavors (the new NMMB and ARW conus domains) regarding tropical cyclones? They both intensify Arthur pretty hard...as in sub 960mb. I know the HRW flavors are newer so this might not be an answerable question yet. Just curious if anyone had any thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I don't think this is true. It looks to me like the convection is merely trying to take on a more curved appearance, and since the COC was never squarely under the coldest cloud tops to start with, it just appears like the thunderstorms are being eroded. It's the center of circulation on radar. It isn't dry air, it is still struggling to get a left quadrant going but that isn't just dry air causing the lack of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 While there is an "eye" I think it's just centrifugal dropsize sorting. Convection around the "eye" is lacking, and in that sense it's not even really an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 We need recon now. I'm quite surprised that the center relocation hasn't become official yet. It seems quite clear we have a strengthening tropical storm probably of 60-70 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I think the looks of this is deceiving at the moment. It might seem like its an "eye" but I don't think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 We need recon now. I'm quite surprised that the center relocation hasn't become official yet. It seems quite clear we have a strengthening tropical storm probably of 60-70 mph. With that IR presentation? I think the looks of this is deceiving at the moment. It might seem like its an "eye" but I don't think it is. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 We need recon now. I'm quite surprised that the center relocation hasn't become official yet. It seems quite clear we have a strengthening tropical storm probably of 60-70 mph. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=MLB&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I think the looks of this is deceiving at the moment. It might seem like its an "eye" but I don't think it is. Meaning what? It isn't the center? Looking at a simple radar you can see that the convection is clearly rotating around that "lack of precipitation" But then again wxmeddler has more expertise obviously, maybe I just don't understand. Edit: Well... then again here is NHC explanation Data from the Melbourne WSR-88D radar indicates that Arthur has acomplex structure this evening. A mid-level cyclonic circulation accompanied by a possible eye feature is clearly evident near 27.8N 78.8W. However, the motions of the light showers/low clouds seen in the radar data suggest that the low-level center is about 25-30 n mi west of the mid-level center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Arthur early Wednesday morning to see if the center has re-formed to the east. Pending the arrival of the aircraft, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/020252.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Eye like feature starting to appear on radar. Rare to have a system go from a disturbance to a hurricane all within range of NWS radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 With that IR presentation? Using the radar. Also the old dvorak technique implies that a curved band wrapping from the eastern semi-circle is indicitive of a moderate/strong range tropical storm. The recon was about to hit the hard convective stuff near the northern Bahamas this afternoon when it went home. I'm curious as to the winds. I don't think hurricane force yet, but probably up towards 70 kts at FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Meaning what? It isn't the center? Looking at a simple radar you can see that the convection is clearly rotating around that "lack of precipitation" But then again wxmeddler has more expertise obviously, maybe I just don't understand. I'd have to disagree with him. It qualifies as an eye even though there maybe some low level stuff inside it. I'd say probably a CAT 1 in <12 hrs unless there's unforeseen dry air or shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Splitting hairs really. It's not a classic eye by definition I guess is what he is saying. Well on its way to having one however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 But then again wxmeddler has more expertise obviously, maybe I just don't understand. So, the while the "eye" on radar is correct in being the center of the storm, it is not an eye by definition. The definition of an eye is: the roughly circular area of comparatively light winds found at the center of a severe tropical cyclone and surrounded by the eyewall. We have criteria #1 met, which is the center, the problem comes with condition #2 which is that there is no eyewall at the moment, this is seen by looking at Infrared satellite and radar. IF there was an eyewall we would have cold cloudtops and high echo tops on radar. However, we don't. IR temps are in the -40's and echotops from Melbourne are only in the mid-20's. What we are seeing then is a different process from the definition of an eye. So what is happening now is that the wind surrounding the center of the circulation is throwing water droplets out from the center creating a "eye" where there are little/small water droplets left. Same thing happens on those mini-mery go rounds on playgrounds, any mass you put in the center will fly out to the outer rim. The same thing happens in real eye's too, but they have eye walls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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