phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 SFMR was 82, BL mean is not surface, and not all altitudes are reduced at the same %age. The level at which those 100+ KT readings were taking are better reduced at around 80% which is borderline at best. Combine that with the degrading presentation of Arthur, and I would be highly, highly surprised if it is upgraded at 5 PM unless the NHC just feels the need to err on the side of extreme caution. We'll see... its not really worth arguing over 5 knot changes in intensity to the degree that we are. Based on my previous experience though, I've seen NHC upgrade a TC based on a surface reading from a dropsonde. That doesn't mean they will in this case, but I've seen precedence for it before. I agree with tony that its a poor assumption to say degradation of the radar reflectivity indicates a less organized TC. Just because some areas around the edge of the eyewall are not precipitating doesn't mean there is dry air intruding into the circulation. There is a lot of misinformation going on in this thread (including some provided by me earlier) but lets state some facts. The storm in the last 24 hours has increased 30 knots in intensity... all while it was in the process of mixing out dry air from the circulation center. Its clear that these occasionally blips from a perfect radar presentation are not preventing the storm from intensifying, and indeed the presentation continues to improve on satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxwilmington Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 BRB!!! got the ok... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Weird...I'm at Carolina Beach and it isn't as you've described...windy and rain, but not hearing transformers blowing and we still have power here! Good luck! Generally transformers don't blow in 40 MPH winds unless they are extremely poorly constructed or very, very old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I'm honestly not sure what radar you are looking at. The western eyewall is not "notably intensifying"...latest returns show a reduction in reflectivity. There is also clearly dry air on the SW side of the eye. Composite radar looks better. Latest extrap pressure is 975.9mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Another thing to keep in mind is that if it ends up riding the coast, the friction of the land may cause it to further tighten while it would still have a sufficient latent heating source from the water.Yes though it may also have a better source of low-level dry air. Dew points are currently in the upper 60s and lower 70s in SC where there may be some fetch into the sw quadrant. However, the convective bands wrapping around the storm will likely prevent the drier air from getting too deep into the circulation, at least in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Up to 80 KT FL on the SE side on this pass... looks like the extrap is going to come in ~1.5 MB lower than the last pass. Basically continued ever-so-slight strengthening, but nothing significant yet. SFMR not really that impressive in that quadrant, but that's not terribly surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wind gust to 82 MPH on platform off coast according to TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wind gust to 82 MPH on platform off coast according to TWC. That would most likely be this http://www.fptower.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 We'll see... its not really worth arguing over 5 knot changes in intensity to the degree that we are. Based on my previous experience though, I've seen NHC upgrade a TC based on a surface reading from a dropsonde. That doesn't mean they will in this case, but I've seen precedence for it before. I agree with tony that its a poor assumption to say degradation of the radar reflectivity indicates a less organized TC. Just because some areas around the edge of the eyewall are not precipitating doesn't mean there is dry air intruding into the circulation. There is a lot of misinformation going on in this thread (including some provided by me earlier) but lets state some facts. The storm in the last 24 hours has increased 30 knots in intensity... all while it was in the process of mixing out dry air from the circulation center. Its clear that these occasionally blips from a perfect radar presentation are not preventing the storm from intensifying, and indeed the presentation continues to improve on satellite imagery. I'm not arguing against this because I agree it does, but isn't it possible that can be a bit deceiving in determining whether a hurricane is intensifying or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I'm not arguing against this because I agree it does, but isn't it possible that can be a bit deceiving in determining whether a hurricane is intensifying or not? Absolutely. There have been many cases of storms looking gorgeous on satellite imagery, only to have recon find it to be not nearly as impressive as expected. Never judge a tropical cyclone by its satellite imagery...unless that's the only thing you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NOAA plane just a made pass. Reported a 974.3mb extrap pressure. 203130 3322N 07801W 7506 02291 9744 +168 +138 017006 009 015 002 00203200 3321N 07759W 7505 02288 9743 +168 +135 134003 004 014 002 03203230 3321N 07756W 7508 02287 9746 +165 +133 163009 012 019 001 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I will just say that this is a heck of a satellite signature for a category 1 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NOAA plane just a made pass. Reported a 974.3mb extrap pressure. 203130 3322N 07801W 7506 02291 9744 +168 +138 017006 009 015 002 00203200 3321N 07759W 7505 02288 9743 +168 +135 134003 004 014 002 03203230 3321N 07756W 7508 02287 9746 +165 +133 163009 012 019 001 00 This makes sense. The NOAA plane will likely have a lower extrap since it is flying at a higher altitude than the USAF plane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This makes sense. The NOAA plane will likely have a lower extrap since it is flying at a higher altitude than the USAF plane. NOAA is flying at 750mb, USAF is flying at 700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 i think there's def a little bit more organization going on over the last few hours. This will be fun to watch tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 past two hours on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I took a break from this for a few hours and at some point Arthur clearly took a nice jog east, but over the past hour he definitely looks to be back heading due north or ever so slightly east of due north. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NHC stayed with 80 knots at 5pm. Still forecasting 85 knots max intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 From 5pm Advisory: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NANTUCKET ISLANDAND FOR CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 The eye of Arthur has become more distinct in visible satellite imagery this afternoon, although the overall radar presentation has changed very little. The latest flight-level and SFMR wind observations are 84 kt and 82 kt respectively. These data support maintaining the 80-kt initial intensity. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for strengthening during the next 12 to 18 hours and Arthur is still forecast to reach category two intensity as it nears the North Carolina coast. Vertical shear is forecast to increase significantly by Friday night and weakening should commence by that time. Arthur is expected to interact with an approaching deep-layer trough and should become a post-tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Steady weakening is anticipated after Arthur becomes post-tropical.Aircraft and radar fixes indicate that the initial motion is 020degrees at 11 kt, a little faster than before. Arthur is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of a deep-layer trough that will move into the eastern United States during the next day or so. Although the models still remain in good agreement on the track of Arthur during the next couple of days, there has been a westward shift this cycle. The new NHC track has been shifted westward and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models through 36 hours. The updated track now shows landfall in eastern North Carolina or the Outer Banks later tonight. Beyond 36 hours, the NHC track has been adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not as far west as the GFS and ECMWF model trackers. While in most cases this westward shift in the track will be immaterial to impacts, it does mean that the hurricane's strongest winds are now more likely to be experienced along the Outer Banks, rather than remain offshore.NHC public advisories will be issued every two hours beginning at 7pm EDT this evening and Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued on the hour between each Public Advisory to provide hourly position updates. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundationFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 03/2100Z 33.4N 77.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 35.3N 76.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 38.2N 72.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 41.9N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 45.2N 64.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/1800Z 50.4N 56.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/1800Z 56.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1800Z 60.0N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The advisory has 979mb for the central pressure yet the last VDM had 977mb. I am confused by this. No mention of the higher pressure being reported by the aircraft in the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Good decision by the NHC at 5 PM intensity-wise, but I think I would have extended the hurricane warning south a little bit just to be on the safe side. At least include the city of Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The advisory has 979mb for the central pressure yet the last VDM had 977mb. I am confused by this. No mention of the higher pressure being reported by the aircraft in the discussion. The VDM pressure was extrapolated, and the dropsonde measured pressures have been running a little bit higher than those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 While the southward outflow channel has been impressive for some time now, the northward channel has lagged behind a bit. That should change over the next 12 hrs or so as the trough to the north lowers the static stability, requiring the storm to do less work to expel mass northward. In other words, there should be some dynamical strengthening even as the thermodynamics gradually become less favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:56ZAircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 13Observation Number: 03A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 20:31:48ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 33°21'N 77°59'W (33.35N 77.9833W)B. Center Fix Location: 57 miles (92 km) to the ESE (115°) from Myrtle Beach, SC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the W (272°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 1° at 67kts (From the N at ~ 77.1mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,461m (8,074ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,462m (8,077ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Open in the southwestM. Eye Shape & Diameter: Ci N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mileO. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section:Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the E (97°) from the flight level center at 20:37:16ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the W (272°) from the flight level centerDropsonde Wind at Center: From 125° at 5kts (From the SE at 6mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 While the southward outflow channel has been impressive for some time now, the northward channel has lagged behind a bit. That should change over the next 12 hrs or so as the trough to the north lowers the static stability, requiring the storm to do less work to expel mass northward. In other words, there should be some dynamical strengthening even as the thermodynamics gradually become less favorable. I agree on this, although I am most concerned with just how far inland Arthur gets at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Good decision by the NHC at 5 PM intensity-wise, but I think I would have extended the hurricane warning south a little bit just to be on the safe side. At least include the city of Wilmington. Yea that is a little strange... especially given this wind swath. They are playing a bit of catch up with the last two or three advisories having to shift the track westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The advisory has 979mb for the central pressure yet the last VDM had 977mb. I am confused by this. No mention of the higher pressure being reported by the aircraft in the discussion. Just a mistake, the text of the public advisory has the correct pressure of 977mb from the drop shortly before the advisory time THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCERESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Cape Fear's about to get the eyewall of a 90-mph hurricane and not be covered by a hurricane warning. Crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theredball Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Cape Fear's about to get the eyewall of a 90-mph hurricane and not be covered by a hurricane warning. Crazy stuff. can't scare away the tourists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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