phil882 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The center that is embedded in the convection is doing a bit of fujiwara'ing attm. A ship report in the convection about an hour ago reported 1002mb and 41mph sustained out of the SSW. This is what I am watching... that mesovorticies on the southeastern side of the center could become the dominant center if they continue to hold together. Given that pressure reading its certainly possible the llc could reform southeast later today, especially given the intensity of theconvection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z HWRF, FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 The center that is embedded in the convection is doing a bit of fujiwara'ing attm. A ship report in the convection about an hour ago reported 1002mb and 41mph sustained out of the SSW.Very interesting to see if this can become the dominate center. A 1002mb pressure is quite a drop from the 1014 we had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z HWRF, FWIW: Impressive, but it is the HWRF. Like a bad athlete on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 No HDOB messages coming from the AF Hurricane Hunter. Gotta do it the old fashion way with RECCO's and VDM's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Impressive, but it is the HWRF. Like a bad athlete on steroids.It's had numerous huge upgrades, res upgrades...blah blah blah. The ECMWF is showing something similar though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Surface water temps seem jet fuel like from S fl over to Bahamas, if it redevelops under Grand Bahama we could have something Go POP, other than that....could anything above a 80mph cane near Carolina's be supported? (not saying that is not a significant storm). it's circulation looks much to big to ramp up that quickly anyway..like a smaller more compact circulation could, excuse my ignorance but could the circulation shrink considerably this pm and tighten up more compact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Whoa there: MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 61 KT 130 / 44 NM 18:38:30Z- SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 What am I missing there? Just the 61kt FL wind? Right, and it was taken at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 HDOB issue has been fixed, it was a comms issue at NHC itself it seems. Also, Gonzo is up dropping sondes off the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z ECMWF is slower and slight further west than 00z... also much stronger, with a 970 hPa TC Friday Morning just offshore of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 HDOB issue has been fixed, it was a comms issue at NHC itself it seems. Also, Gonzo is up dropping sondes off the SC coast. HDOB's have been put into the tropical atlantic (google earth) system. Where that 61kt FL wind was, there was a 49kt SFMR reading (SE quad) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z ECMWF is slower and slight further west than 00z... also much stronger, with a 970 hPa TC Friday Morning just offshore of NC. The good news for further north is that euro kicks out further east in time to really salvage Fri in the Northeast...nothing like the GFS solution which was strangely trying to phase Arthur into the trough and take it further west...I think the euro has a better handle on this getting booted east by the trough at least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The good news for further north is that euro kicks out further east in time to really salvage Fri in the Northeast...nothing like the GFS solution which was strangely trying to phase Arthur into the trough and take it further west...I think the euro has a better handle on this getting booted east by the trough at least initially. I was just posting how the global models are generally useless with tropical systems, the Euro is the best of the bunch and even it is often not all that good...I need to see some sort of shift west on the tropical clusters to buy the 12Z GFS/NavGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The good news for further north is that euro kicks out further east in time to really salvage Fri in the Northeast...nothing like the GFS solution which was strangely trying to phase Arthur into the trough and take it further west...I think the euro has a better handle on this getting booted east by the trough at least initially. Yea... the GFS track would be suggestive of a PRE that could be a heavy rainfall maker for a lot of the northeast... the ECMWF is too far offshore for any significant precip. I'd place my bets mre on the ECMWF camp since the GFS only recently realized there was going to be a TC off the Florida coastline. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014070112/gfs_z850_vort_seus_comp24.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Last recon fix appear to be south of the first pass... so the storm is definatly not moving too much currently and the strong convection to its south is having some impact on the motion of Arthur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Yea... the GFS track would be suggestive of a PRE that could be a heavy rainfall maker for a lot of the northeast... the ECMWF is too far offshore for any significant precip. I'd place my bets mre on the ECMWF camp since the GFS only recently realized there was going to be a TC off the Florida coastline. Indeed it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Does anyone else think that the current center sampled by reconnaissance is just a mesovortex rotating within a broader LLC that will reform to the SE (as the 12Z HWRF indicates)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 G-IV Track (Hand drawn too): https://noaahrd.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/giv_track_20140701_1730z.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 998.1 mb extrapolated...not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 998.1 mb extrapolated...not bad They changed altitude from 925mb to 700mb. So the extrapolations will be less accurate. Apparently they really didn't like that ride though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The latest recon pass indicates clear evidence that the center is relocated under the deeper convection. This is a very good sign for the system as the shear has decreased and now that the center is relocating under the mid-level vortex it should have a much easier time intensifying. Look for a more bullish NHC forecast at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 5:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 1Location: 27.8°N 79.4°WMoving: NW at 2 mphMin pressure: 1003 mbMax sustained: 50 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The curved band in the SE quadrant appears to be pulling the llc into the deeper convection (which is evident by the recon showing the 700 hPa center displaced southeast of the surface center) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The latest recon pass indicates clear evidence that the center is relocated under the deeper convection. This is a very good sign for the system as the shear has decreased and now that the center is relocating under the mid-level vortex it should have a much easier time intensifying. Look for a more bullish NHC forecast at 5pm.Radar agrees with this. If that new center is down to the surface then it's organizing fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Forecast to become a high end Category 1 Hurricane now per the new NHC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I mentioned this occurring this morning. Clearly the constant convective bursts have helped pull the LLC into a more dynamic strengthening environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 18z gfs a tad farther west this run @48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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