Hurricane Arthur

[jm1220]

Radar presentation is looking poor. Eye not looking as good as a few hours ago.

 

Edit: microwave presentation also degrading.  

The ragged appearance on the SW side keeps re-appearing due to dry air constantly intruding.

[Superstorm93]

Got to say I can't believe how little discussion there is in here, with a landfalling hurricane hitting the US.

Middle of the day usually slows down. It'll pick up again.

[phil882]

Could be a gust. Other data doesn't support that as a 1-minute sustained average.

The BL mean was 90 knots. SFMR was very close to 85 knots. Moreover radar velocity above 100 knots extrapolated to the surface supports at least 85 knots. I'd be suprised if the NHC didn't go with at least 85 knots at 5pm.

[Brick Tamland]

Cams from Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, and Wrightsville are all good right now.

 

http://www.surfchex.com/

[wxwilmington]

Here in Wilm want a boots on the ground report?

[SN_Lover]

The ragged appearance on the SW side keeps re-appearing due to dry air constantly intruding.

yup, looks like it wont have time to mix it out. the south side of the eye is gone on radar. 

[das]

Here in Wilm want a boots on the ground report?

 

Yes, please.

[sctvman]

Just drove thru Wilmington. Heavy gusts. 40+, lots of flooding, and traffic. Not a good sign with a landfalling hurricane.

[Weathergun]

The last VDM reported an eyewall closed.and 977mb extrap pressure. I think it's slowly intensifying. An eye is also clearing out on latest visible.

[Snow_Miser]

Definitely another attempt to wrap deeper thunderstorm activity around the core of the storm.

 

[theredball]

Just drove thru Wilmington. Heavy gusts. 40+, lots of flooding, and traffic. Not a good sign with a landfalling hurricane.

There's not much prep happening. Everyone was focused on the 4th of July a lot of people aren't paying attention right now 

[Superstorm93]

Wow...check out the high altitude Gulfstream data. Cyclonic circulation extends to 200mb

[Dunkman]

There's not much prep happening. Everyone was focused on the 4th of July a lot of people aren't paying attention right now 

They'll be ok, all those condos and whatnot are built to withstand this.  However, they are going to have an evening/night they won't soon forget.  Oh, and they may get to experience life without power for a couple days as I imagine it will be rather hard to get out of the area tomorrow.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

The BL mean was 90 knots. SFMR was very close to 85 knots. Moreover radar velocity above 100 knots extrapolated to the surface supports at least 85 knots. I'd be suprised if the NHC didn't go with at least 85 knots at 5pm.

 

SFMR was 82, BL mean is not surface, and not all altitudes are reduced at the same %age.  The level at which those 100+ KT readings were taking are better reduced at around 80% which is borderline at best.  Combine that with the degrading presentation of Arthur, and I would be highly, highly surprised if it is upgraded at 5 PM unless the NHC just feels the need to err on the side of extreme caution.

[theredball]

They'll be ok, all those condos and whatnot are built to withstand this.  However, they are going to have an evening/night they won't soon forget.

The fireworks will be a spectacular way to celebrate once the storm passes

[wxwilmington]

_{I'm less than 10 miles from Carolina Beach, (421 South AKA Carolina Beach rd), If It were not for a Back-up Power supply I'd other wise not be able to post...}

_{LOTS of Mesoscale t-Storms with plenty of  lighting to boot.. Power is going out everywhere,, Winds are "almost" TS Storm force... Over 40mph in "bands"...}

_{Very, I mean VERY heavy rain...(as with Floyd),, MAJOR flooding everywhere on streets,,,   With brakes.. in between. Transformers, are going out everywhere, (you can hear them).. ZZZT ZZZT BOOM!}

_{Do NOT know how much power Will be around by "landfall"...  Lokks like were gonna take a Hit... over & out WXWilmington...}

[rsteff]

Here in Wilm want a boots on the ground report?

sure

[theredball]

_{I'm less than 10 miles from Carolina Beach, (421 South AKA Carolina Beach rd), If It were not for a Back-up Power supply I'd other wise not be able to post...}

_{LOTS of Mesoscale t-Storms with plenty of  lighting to boot.. Power is going out everywhere,, Winds are "almost" TS Storm force... Over 40mph in "bands"...}

_{Very, I mean VERY heavy rain...(as with Floyd),, MAJOR flooding everywhere on streets,,,   With brakes.. in between. Transformers, are going out everywhere, (you can hear them).. ZZZT ZZZT BOOM!}

_{Do NOT know how much power Will be around by "landfall"...  Lokks like were gonna take a Hit... over & out WXWilmington...}

stay safe

[Cypress]

_{I'm less than 10 miles from Carolina Beach, (421 South AKA Carolina Beach rd), If It were not for a Back-up Power supply I'd other wise not be able to post...}

_{LOTS of Mesoscale t-Storms with plenty of  lighting to boot.. Power is going out everywhere,, Winds are "almost" TS Storm force... Over 40mph in "bands"...}

_{Very, I mean VERY heavy rain...(as with Floyd),, MAJOR flooding everywhere on streets,,,   With brakes.. in between. Transformers, are going out everywhere, (you can hear them).. ZZZT ZZZT BOOM!}

_{Do NOT know how much power Will be around by "landfall"...  Lokks like were gonna take a Hit... over & out WXWilmington...}

 

Carolina Beach Cam  http://www.surfchex.com/carolina-beach-web-cam.php

[Cypress]

_{I'm less than 10 miles from Carolina Beach, (421 South AKA Carolina Beach rd), If It were not for a Back-up Power supply I'd other wise not be able to post...}

_{LOTS of Mesoscale t-Storms with plenty of  lighting to boot.. Power is going out everywhere,, Winds are "almost" TS Storm force... Over 40mph in "bands"...}

_{Very, I mean VERY heavy rain...(as with Floyd),, MAJOR flooding everywhere on streets,,,   With brakes.. in between. Transformers, are going out everywhere, (you can hear them).. ZZZT ZZZT BOOM!}

_{Do NOT know how much power Will be around by "landfall"...  Lokks like were gonna take a Hit... over & out WXWilmington...}

 

lightning  http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

[tornadotony]

It's clearly strengthening to some degree.  Any analysis of Arthur looking "worse" or the radar presentation looking "poor" is poor in and of itself.  The radar presentation in still improving, with notable intensification of the western eyewall.  Intra-eye subsidence is increasing as proven by the visible clearing of the eye on satellite.  The pressure is at least slowly dropping (though I feel the pressure may start falling more rapidly), and the recon reports a closed eyewall.

[Brick Tamland]

Tornado warning for Duplin County, NC.

[wxwilmington]

Talking with the Wife they don't have the Snows Cut bridge closed yet, I'll see if I can go get some, "Video footage" ...

Asking nicely,,, lol...(She doesn't want Me to go)...

[tornadotony]

Another thing to keep in mind is that if it ends up riding the coast, the friction of the land may cause it to further tighten while it would still have a sufficient latent heating source from the water.

[Dunkman]

Talking with the Wife they don't have the Snows Cut bridge closed yet, I'll see if I can go get some, "Video footage" ...

Asking nicely,,, lol...(She doesn't want Me to go)...

Don't get stranded!  I almost did one time while trying to get some pictures at the beach and basically had to beg the Deputy closing the bridge to let me pass, which he did thankfully.

[dan11295]

Forecast is for it to ride the coast a bit just off of ILM up to Jacksonville (i.e the turn looks to have begun and its not going over ILM).

[SN_Lover]

It's clearly strengthening to some degree.  Any analysis of Arthur looking "worse" or the radar presentation looking "poor" is poor in and of itself.  The radar presentation in still improving, with notable intensification of the western eyewall.  Intra-eye subsidence is increasing as proven by the visible clearing of the eye on satellite.  The pressure is at least slowly dropping (though I feel the pressure may start falling more rapidly), and the recon reports a closed eyewall.

I dont see this on radar...  and the clearing is caused by the dry air. 

 

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

We are closing in fast on...unless Arthur makes a ridiculously unlikely sharp right turn...the point of no return for areas around Cape Fear.

[downeastnc]

Another thing to keep in mind is that if it ends up riding the coast, the friction of the land may cause it to further tighten while it would still have a sufficient latent heating source from the water.

 

Irene did this as well anytime they come ashore with dropping pressure they seem to actually improve for awhile,  eastern NC isn't exactly known for its elevation and they also seem to become more efficient at mixing down the winds aloft as well....

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

It's clearly strengthening to some degree.  Any analysis of Arthur looking "worse" or the radar presentation looking "poor" is poor in and of itself.  The radar presentation in still improving, with notable intensification of the western eyewall.  Intra-eye subsidence is increasing as proven by the visible clearing of the eye on satellite.  The pressure is at least slowly dropping (though I feel the pressure may start falling more rapidly), and the recon reports a closed eyewall.

 

I'm honestly not sure what radar you are looking at.  The western eyewall is not "notably intensifying"...latest returns show a reduction in reflectivity.  There is also clearly dry air on the SW side of the eye.