Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Doesn't look like much of any eastward movement now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I mean the storm has been moving left of the NHC track for some time now (last 3-6 hours)... this is a bit more than just a wobble at this point. If the storm does manage to take the same track the 12z GFS is suggesting, the outer banks will gets the strongest winds in the east quadrant. That is defiantly the worst case scenario. Impact would probably be as substantial as Irene 2011 if not greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Tornado warning up for areas just north of Southport, NC. Looks to be ramping up on velocity scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Tornado warning for New Hanover County, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 FL winds, wrt it being a NW/SE pass, still very underwhelming on this pass. Little change in estimated pressure as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The fact that the strongest convection/ latent heat release is now on the western side of the storm may help to pull the storm slightly further west, at least temporarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Fran redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I think Arthur needs to reorganize its convection a bit more before it strengthens any further. We've hit a diurnal minimum so that may be affecting it, but it may run out of time to become a category 2 before it makes landfall if the western trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I mean the storm has been moving left of the NHC track for some time now (last 3-6 hours)... this is a bit more than just a wobble at this point. If the storm does manage to take the same track the 12z GFS is suggesting, the outer banks will gets the strongest winds in the east quadrant. That is defiantly the worst case scenario. Impact would probably be as substantial as Irene 2011 if not greater. Looking at the radar loop it just seems to me that the east influence isn't happening or is much weaker than progged, watching how the precip field is expanding north into NC and westward in SC I just don't see why this thing is going to start going east a lot. Here in inland eastern NC no one is expecting conditions to be bad, if it follows a similar path to Irene or Bertha 1996 which this is starting to remind me of A LOT....then people even inland here will have to deal with near hurricane conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The cold front is very strong but is dawdling and thus not slapping out to sea yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Very strange. I would have expected some more impressive readings from recon based on the eye tightening up on radar. Out for a while. Will check in periodically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 FL winds, wrt it being a NW/SE pass, still very underwhelming on this pass. Little change in estimated pressure as well. That's because they didn't fly into the E quadrant... did NW/N pass... not sure why. Radar shows the eywall is finally starting to consolidate into a solid ring. I think intensification is not far behind. There is still plenty of time to get to cat 2 intensity, and possibly cat 3 if it continues to intensify right up to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Pretty impressive storm going at Wrightsville Beach...tops to 54kft and decent rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 URNT12 KNHC 031636VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014A. 03/16:17:00ZB. 32 deg 37 min N 078 deg 31 min WC. 700 mb 2920 mD. 70 ktE. 302 deg 13 nmF. 028 deg 55 ktG. 303 deg 15 nmH. 980 mbI. 9 C / 3048 mJ. 13 C / 3044 mK. NA / NAL. CLOSEDM. C30N. 12345 / 07O. 0.02 / 2 nmP. AF301 1101A ARTHUR OB 09MAX FL WIND 79 KT 058 / 10 NM 15:10:00ZMAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 69 KT 005 / 18 NM 16:22:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Before I head out... HRRR FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Before I head out... HRRR keep in mind that the HRRR is initialized from the RAP, which brings in a background from the GFS twice per day. It's quite possible that this idea of a landfall in NC is legit, but this solution could also be caused by whatever in the GFS has its solution further to the left than most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 That's because they didn't fly into the E quadrant... did NW/N pass... not sure why. Radar shows the eywall is finally starting to consolidate into a solid ring. I think intensification is not far behind. There is still plenty of time to get to cat 2 intensity, and possibly cat 3 if it continues to intensify right up to landfall. I think they may have called that pass off, and wanted to get a east to west path as soon as possible, it looks like that is what they are setting up for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z HWRF That seems way inland than forecasted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Left side of the shaded area is ~15 deg, so extrap from last NHC update.. Right side is about 38 deg, just arbitrarily drawn by me. It would only be a small heading change to miss or head well inland at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It looks like in the past hour, it has started to clearly move with a more E component than earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like a hit from dry air. Arthur should be able to mix it out, but this may slow intensification over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like a hit from dry air. Arthur should be able to mix it out, but this may slow intensification over the next few hours. Yup... And pressure has increased ever so slightly on this last pass through the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 New tornado warning for New Hanover County until 1:30. Rotation is currently approaching UNCW campus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The dry air that did enter the circulation does appear to be short lived. Storms are increasing across the Eastern quadrant as well as partial eyewall clearing. I still see no evidence of the infringement from the frontal boundary over Western NC as of yet. Typically we would notice a flattening on the Western flank of the cloud canopy as the front advances E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like the intensity of Arthur is overestimated by about 5-10 KT based on this last pass. FL winds up to 84 KT, SFMR up to 71 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Tornado watch now for coastal NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The dry air that did enter the circulation does appear to be short lived. Storms are increasing across the Eastern quadrant as well as partial eyewall clearing. I still see no evidence of the infringement from the frontal boundary over Western NC as of yet. Typically we would notice a flattening on the Western flank of the cloud canopy as the front advances E. Microwave imagery getting impressive also... Looks like the storm is still strengthening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 If you ever wanted to see a hurricane at sea, this guy has been posting videos from Frying Pan Shoals Tower all morning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zihluvEQ2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yup... And pressure has increased ever so slightly on this last pass through the eye. The dry air that did enter the circulation does appear to be short lived. Storms are increasing across the Eastern quadrant as well as partial eyewall clearing. I still see no evidence of the infringement from the frontal boundary over Western NC as of yet. Typically we would notice a flattening on the Western flank of the cloud canopy as the front advances E. Yep... the difference between today and yesterday is that the shear over the system is effectively gone since its moving with an eastward component of motion. The dry air that was around it yesterday has been getting mixed out, and now that we have a closed eyewall its only a matter of time till new towers go up in the eyewall and start another period of strengthening. SSTs again don't decrease at all till it gets past the outer banks so we still have another 12-18 hours before possible peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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