JC-CT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NHC forecast is definitely on the SE side of the latest model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Eye just getting to the 100 mile range ring on Wilmington radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It needs to happen right now really for it to follow the NHC track, Dennis did this back in 1999 came right up to the coast and then hung a hard right and went OTS so it can happen but if it doesn't...... edit to add again how bummed I am buoy 41013 is out Arthur will go right over it About half the bouys I look at are offline. They are not maintained well. It's a shame because this has 1 mb to go to beat Ingrid for the strongest atlantic storm since sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Those models are almost unaminous in calling for a landfall even as far west as Morehead City, which would put a chunk of the outer banks in the eastern quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 50 k foot tops in the northern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 More lightning showing up in the eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Those models are almost unaminous in calling for a landfall even as far west as Morehead City, which would put a chunk of the outer banks in the eastern quad. Honestly it needs to get moving almost due ENE right now if it is going to go east of Morehead City and the current radar trend doesn't have much if any east motion to it as far as I can tell..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The squeeze play is on it looks like. There's still a weak mid level ridge to his NNW that's making things "complicated". http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Hurricane Hunter will be in within the next hour. Quick contest/guess on the central pressure (measured by dropsonde)? I'm going 978mb. No dry air in there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Hurricane Hunter will be in within the next hour. Quick contest/guess on the central pressure (measured by dropsonde)? I'm going 978mb.No dry air in there.. Whats with recon arriving just as a new full advisory is due out yet again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Hurricane Hunter will be in within the next hour. Quick contest/guess on the central pressure (measured by dropsonde)? I'm going 978mb. No dry air in there.. Just a matter if it can wrap these monstrous towers around the center. Sticking with my original call from Monday of 90-95 knots I'd estimate the first VDM of 979mb (I can't recall the last time I've seem this much lightning inside of a TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks to me like he's beginning to interact with the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html Surprised at the movement which appears to be NNW in this loop. Getting late in the game for such a "wobble" or whatever you want to call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Agreed on the NNW - it wobbled a bit west! http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LTX-N0Q-1-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The good news is there is still dry air in the south quad atm, not going to see rapid intensification with that presesnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like KLTX has SAILS activated, and we are getting 2-3 minute radar updates per frame. Excellent stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Post landfall, what could the rest of the east coast expect from Arthur? would it merge with the front coming in and turn into a powerful post-tropical cyclone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Post landfall, what could the rest of the east coast expect from Arthur? would it merge with the front coming in and turn into a powerful post-tropical cyclone? That's not likely to happen until the system is offshore. That could potentially be a problem for Nova Scotia, but not for the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Thanks for the answer Phil. Seems like its getting closer to the coast then expected. would need a very sharp recurve to miss the OBX now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 For that to happen, the incoming front would have to stall out along the coast. Is it possible yes, likely to happen no. That being said, with Arthur wobbling to the west this morning, a landfalling hurricane somewhere along eastern N.C. is becoming more likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 90 mph storm now with 981mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 11am Advisory. Winds 80kts now and moving NNE 12kt. Forecast to be 90kts: PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MBEYE DIAMETER 20 NMMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.12 FT SEAS..110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.5W AT 03/1500ZAT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 78.7WFORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.8N 77.3WMAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW.FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.3N 74.4WMAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Forecast track shifted W a hair, now a little W of Cape Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Plane nearing the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 78.5W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE LATEST MINUMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NHC is probably regretting staying so conservative with the intensity forecast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I always hate it when the plane is like 10 minutes late of an advisory for a center fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 NHC is probably regretting staying so conservative with the intensity forecast now. That 90mph estimate is probably already too low... Tiny eye is starting to appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Arthur continues to strengthen this morning. The Air Force plane has reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 83 kt. The NOAA aircraft reported 91 kt from 8,000 ft, and both aircraft have measured surface winds of around 80 kt from the SFMR. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. Arthur is forecast to remain in low shear and move over warm water during the next 24 hours. This should allow for some additional intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast now calls for Arthur to reach category two strength prior to its landfall or closest approach to the coast, in agreement with tightly clustered intensity guidance. After that time, Arthur will be moving over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the shear is forecast to increase as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer trough that will be moving off the east coast of the United States. Arthur is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone in 48 hours and should steadily weaken after that. Aircraft and radar data indicate that Arthur is moving a little faster and appears to have turned north-northeastward, although the motion over the last hour or two was northward. The hurricane should turn northeastward later today and accelerate ahead of the deep-layer trough nearing the U.S. east coast. The models are in good agreement in showing the center of Arthur grazing the North Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, however only a slight westward shift in the track would bring the strongest winds inland over eastern North Carolina. After 24 hours, the spread in the models increases some with the GFS and HWRF faster and along the western side of the guidance. The ECMWF is a bit slower and to the right. The NHC forecast leans toward the faster GFS solution, but has been adjusted a little to the east at days three through five. The forecast track brings the center of the cyclone near or over portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in two to three days. Users are reminded to not focus of the exact forecast track since the associated hazards extend well away from the center. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 32.4N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 33.8N 77.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 36.3N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 39.4N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 42.7N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/1200Z 48.5N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/1200Z 55.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1200Z 60.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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