Kory Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Hurricanes strengthening at landfall are A LOT worse than storms weakening at landfall. Take Isaac in 2012 for example in Louisiana, it was a strengthening category 1 at landfall and it caused some serious damage. The Outer Banks better be prepared... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Arthur seems to be on the very high end of the intensity model guidance looking at the archive guidance from 12 UTC yesterday (only the GFTI had it near 70 knots right now, and it was forecasting a max intensity of 85 knots). Thanks Phil. I didn't realize only two of the hurricane models forecasted this to be a hurricane right now.Do you know what the Euro showed for max intensity on last night's run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 How is this compared to Hurricane Alex (2004)? That was storm on a similar track (which never made an official landfall) with 100 mph sustained at its closest pass. That's a pretty good analog. I mentioned it yesterday, and I think this storm will be fairly similar up to the outer banks. The only difference is that Alex was further offshore, and Arthur may have a more direct impact in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Thanks Phil. I didn't realize only two of the hurricane models forecasted this to be a hurricane right now. Do you know what the Euro showed for max intensity on last night's run? Around 968 hPa as it moves over Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Unfortunately, I think Arthur is going to hit my favorite place in NC, the OBX, and will be a cat 2 hurricane at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Unfortunately, I think Arthur is going to hit my favorite place in NC, the OBX, and will be a cat 2 hurricane at the least. That seems to be in line with the latest guidance/obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It certainly seems to be moving left of the NHC forecast track... if that were to continue for a more substantial period of time, it could put places more in the mainland of NC at risk of a direct impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The 12z Tropical models initialized at 75kts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Unfortunately, I think Arthur is going to hit my favorite place in NC, the OBX, and will be a cat 2 hurricane at the least. Yeah, and I'm wondering the inlets that tried to form with Irene and were filled in will reopen with Arthur. I'm also wondering how well those temporary bridges that raised Hwy 12 will survive this storm. This gives me an excuse to stay up tonight and watch the reports come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It certainly seems to be moving left of the NHC forecast track... if that were to continue for a more substantial period of time, it could put places more in the mainland of NC at risk of a direct impact. Certainly looks like that more Eastern direction has ceased during the last few frames....the next few hours may make or break their project path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 wilmington looks to be in for a scrape from the western eyewall if the current heading continues. myrtle also looks to get into some of the bands coming in from offshore in the next few hours. all we had here in chs this morning was a few showers and 15-25mph wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It certainly seems to be moving left of the NHC forecast track... if that were to continue for a more substantial period of time, it could put places more in the mainland of NC at risk of a direct impact. Keep in mind NONE of these beaches have been evacuated.....and its the busiest weekend for NC beaches......hopefully it doesn't get any stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Was there supposed to be a cold front coming today that would steer Arthur further east? I know we had rain and storms today in the local forecast, and that was supposed to be from the front. But those have been overdone all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looking at radar it would appear we now have 2/3rds of an eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Was there supposed to be a cold front coming today that would steer Arthur further east? I know we had rain and storms today in the local forecast, and that was supposed to be from the front. But those have been overdone all summer. The front is still back in WNC/SC looking at the surface observations. If anything it looks like the precipitation associated with the front is moving west, not east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Worrisome that a more Western side of the track Guidance envelope may be developing. That would place areas from Wilmington on up to the Maryland Coast in some what more of a risk if this trend continues. Tidal surge may be an issue for the Potomac and we may see Warnings added further N as the day wears on. The short wave over Wisconsin is the key feature to watch upstream. Even the Cape Cod area will need to monitor Arthur as it transitions to extra tropical this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Latest HRRR, FWIW HRRR.jpg The HRRR did an outstanding job showing the overnight organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Have a friend at Topsail Beach, NC I'm trying to get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The HRRR did seem to consistently capture the more northward motion occurring currently. Its most recent 14 hour forecast has it scraping the NC coastline, with Wilmington, NC just outside of the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Based on the forecast track a sharper turn to the right should be occurring fairly shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Based on the forecast track a sharper turn to the right should be occurring fairly shortly. It needs to happen right now really for it to follow the NHC track, Dennis did this back in 1999 came right up to the coast and then hung a hard right and went OTS so it can happen but if it doesn't...... edit to add again how bummed I am buoy 41013 is out Arthur will go right over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Eye becoming more visible again on satellite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 So when does southeast VA become at risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 So when does southeast VA become at risk? Well again you guys are probably ok because even if the storm takes a more leftward track, it will have to move inland quite a bit before you guys are positioned on the eastern side of the system. By that point Arthur will be substantially weaker. VA really doesn't get a substantial impact from a tropical cyclone that's moving with an easterly component of motion. Now storms moving with a westerly component of motion are a different story (as may probably remember Isabel 2002). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Worrisome that a more Western side of the track Guidance envelope may be developing. That would place areas from Wilmington on up to the Maryland Coast in some what more of a risk if this trend continues. Tidal surge may be an issue for the Potomac and we may see Warnings added further N as the day wears on. The short wave over Wisconsin is the key feature to watch upstream. Even the Cape Cod area will need to monitor Arthur as it transitions to extra tropical this weekend. Yes, i've saved this particular image: it shows really well for any historical addenda about this system to be examined afterwards, the interaction between the gulf systems that have happened since it was 91L are still very apparent. The capacity for the trough to dig deep have been adjusted by what was once a more apparent low in the western gulf. There is still a visible slow western drift and flow across the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Winds just above the surface are screaming. If that eye can clear out (even just for a few hours) then we have the possibility that Arthur can approach major hurricane status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Well again you guys are probably ok because even if the storm takes a more leftward track, it will have to move inland quite a bit before you guys are positioned on the eastern side of the system. By that point Arthur will be substantially weaker. VA really doesn't get a substantial impact from a tropical cyclone that's moving with an easterly component of motion. Now storms moving with a westerly component of motion are a different story (as may probably remember Isabel 2002). Thanks for the info. A tad worried here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 There tends to be a lag in storm surge thankfully so even if this made Cat III at the eleventh hour it may not have Cat III surge at least when it hits...we saw that with Charley, not really a Cat 4 surge because it had only been a Cat 4 for a short while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z NAM FWIW has a landfall in the banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 There tends to be a lag in storm surge thankfully so even if this made Cat III at the eleventh hour it may not have Cat III surge at least when it hits...we saw that with Charley, not really a Cat 4 surge because it had only been a Cat 4 for a short while. The problem is that it takes only a small surge to cause big problems along the Outer Banks of NC. Hwy 12 is extremely prone to overwash in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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