phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 awesome loop Phil, it's definitely gaining steam, I wonder how long it can keep the just east of north component Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 83kt FL wind found in SE quad. Also SFMR report 79kt, with a 15mm/hr rainfall rate 105630 3117N 07827W 6964 03085 //// +078 //// 212077 078 066 024 01105700 3118N 07829W 6962 03080 //// +072 //// 217078 083 069 028 01105730 3119N 07831W 6983 03034 //// +074 //// 226080 083 071 032 01105800 3120N 07832W 6948 03067 //// +080 //// 236071 079 073 030 01105830 3121N 07833W 6930 03082 //// +096 //// 233064 068 079 015 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 awesome loop Phil, it's definitely gaining steam, I wonder how long it can keep the just east of north component Hard to gauge these things sometimes, but when I look at Phil's loop, I see a greater east component in the last half of the loop than in the first half of the loop. Maybe the convection on the east side is pulling the core in that direction temporarily, but will be interesting to see if it becomes a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 74kt SFMR wind with just 9mm/hr rainfall rate. Not to far from 83kt winds. I think it's enough for increase in winds: URNT15 KNHC 031108AF303 0901A ARTHUR HDOB 45 20140703105900 3123N 07834W 6956 03047 //// +105 //// 231059 060 074 009 01105930 3124N 07835W 6998 02983 //// +117 //// 229056 059 063 003 01110000 3126N 07837W 6950 03027 //// +101 //// 227045 053 049 009 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yep looks like the intermediate advisory will go up to 80 or 85 MPH... Again 100 mph is easily attainable and there is an outside shot we can get to cat 3 with the amount of time remaining before it crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yep looks like the intermediate advisory will go up to 80 or 85 MPH... Again 100 mph is easily attainable and there is an outside shot we can get to cat 3 with the amount of time remaining before it crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream.Do you think the core will miss the VA beach-Wiliamsburg corridor? Seemed like yesterday some of the modeling wanted to hit that area pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Latest fix has 983mb pressure. But the dropsonde reported at 13kt surface wind. So it's likely 982mb. 000URNT12 KNHC 031126VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014A. 03/11:03:30ZB. 31 deg 35 min N 078 deg 46 min WC. 700 mb 2952 mD. 79 ktE. 136 deg 15 nmF. 225 deg 83 ktG. 136 deg 19 nmH. 983 mbI. 7 C / 3045 mJ. 14 C / 3050 mK. NA / NAL. CLOSEDM. C25N. 12345 / 7O. 0.02 / 3 nmP. AF303 0901A ARTHUR OB 21MAX FL WIND 83 KT 136 / 19 NM 10:57:30ZMAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 53 KT 314 / 17 NM 11:09:00ZCENTER DROPSONDE SFC WINDS 270/13EYEWALL RAGGED/BROKEN; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Nice loop Phil. Gave ya a shoutout in this morning's video update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Do you think the core will miss the VA beach-Wiliamsburg corridor? Seemed like yesterday some of the modeling wanted to hit that area pretty well. From the model guidance I've been looking at, that region should be on the west side of Arthur which should leave in with less windy condition (probably only Tropical Storm Force at the worse). There will probably still be some rain bands that will swing in, but overall impact will be much lower than what folks further south in NC will be facing (especially the outer banks which look increasingly likely to be having a direct impact). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NOAA plane just found 91kts at FL. SFMR wind 81kt with 11mm/hr rainfall rate 113630 3147N 07825W 7520 02374 9872 +147 //// 171066 070 081 011 01113700 3147N 07823W 7455 02472 9898 +139 //// 168082 091 080 017 01113730 3147N 07821W 7457 02480 9922 +130 //// 170083 085 077 028 01113800 3147N 07819W 7461 02488 9940 +128 //// 178082 083 074 030 01113830 3148N 07817W 7473 02488 9953 +129 //// 178082 085 073 022 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Latest fix has 983mb pressure. But the dropsonde reported at 13kt surface wind. So it's likely 982mb. 000 URNT12 KNHC 031126 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014 A. 03/11:03:30Z B. 31 deg 35 min N 078 deg 46 min W C. 700 mb 2952 m D. 79 kt E. 136 deg 15 nm F. 225 deg 83 kt G. 136 deg 19 nm H. 983 mb I. 7 C / 3045 m J. 14 C / 3050 m K. NA / NA L. CLOSED M. C25 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF303 0901A ARTHUR OB 21 MAX FL WIND 83 KT 136 / 19 NM 10:57:30Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 53 KT 314 / 17 NM 11:09:00Z CENTER DROPSONDE SFC WINDS 270/13 EYEWALL RAGGED/BROKEN ; Though it's ragged, the report is also showing a closed and circular eye with a pretty good temperature difference between inside and outside the eye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 From the model guidance I've been looking at, that region should be on the west side of Arthur which should leave in with less windy condition (probably only Tropical Storm Force at the worse). There will probably still be some rain bands that will swing in, but overall impact will be much lower than what folks further south in NC will be facing (especially the outer banks which look increasingly likely to be having a direct impact).Thanks. Down there on vacation. Was hoping to catch a baseball game in Norfolk tonight. Looks like a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NOAA Dropsonde has 70kt surface wind. MBL/925mb wind is 103kts. All east quad Date: Near the closest hour of 12Z on the 3rd day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 31.8N 78.4W Location: 115 miles (185 km) to the SE (126°) from Charleston, SC, USA. Marsden Square: 116 (About) LevelGeo. HeightAir Temp.Dew PointWind DirectionWind Speed987mb (29.15 inHg)Sea Level (Surface)25.4°C (77.7°F)24.4°C (75.9°F)115° (from the ESE)71 knots (82 mph)1000mb-112m (-367 ft)This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.925mb572m (1,877 ft)22.2°C (72.0°F)21.3°C (70.3°F)145° (from the SE)103 knots (119 mph)850mb1,308m (4,291 ft)19.6°C (67.3°F)18.6°C (65.5°F)160° (from the SSE)78 knots (90 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NOAA plane just found 91kts at FL. SFMR wind 81kt with 11mm/hr rainfall rate 113630 3147N 07825W 7520 02374 9872 +147 //// 171066 070 081 011 01113700 3147N 07823W 7455 02472 9898 +139 //// 168082 091 080 017 01113730 3147N 07821W 7457 02480 9922 +130 //// 170083 085 077 028 01113800 3147N 07819W 7461 02488 9940 +128 //// 178082 083 074 030 01113830 3148N 07817W 7473 02488 9953 +129 //// 178082 085 073 022 01 Sigh... looks like intensification continues. On the cusp of category 2 intensity. Arthur definatly has a shot to make it to cat 3 today. What is the evacuation situation in the outer banks today? Things are going from bad to worse very quickly with the recent intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Sigh... looks like intensification continues. On the cusp of category 2 intensity. Arthur definatly has a shot to make it to cat 3 today. What is the evacuation situation in the outer banks today? Things are going from bad to worse very quickly with the recent intensification. Last I heard, evacs were voluntary. This is probably best put into a new thread so as not to clutter up this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Check out this dropsonde: 71 kt at the sfc with ~110 kt just above the sfc at 960 mb. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/access.cgi?year=2014&storm=Arthur&product=UZNT13&who=NOAA&mission=10 Sigh... looks like intensification continues. On the cusp of category 2 intensity. Arthur definatly has a shot to make it to cat 3 today. What is the evacuation situation in the outer banks today? Things are going from bad to worse very quickly with the recent intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like NHC conservatively went up to 70 knots at 8am... given the 91 knot flight level winds at 74 knot (only slightly) rain contaminated obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Last I heard, evacs were voluntary. This is probably best put into a new thread so as not to clutter up this one though.As per CNN and NC Emergency Management, Hateras is under a mandatory evacuation. We (USCG) are on full alert and ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 800 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS... ...OUTER RAINBANDS REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 78.7W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY... FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Sigh... looks like intensification continues. On the cusp of category 2 intensity. Arthur definatly has a shot to make it to cat 3 today. What is the evacuation situation in the outer banks today? Things are going from bad to worse very quickly with the recent intensification. They are getting everyone off Hatteras Island today but they didn't announce till last night so I am not sure how many they have off....the track is going to be crucial if this thing goes over Emerald Isle into the sounds then the OBX will take it in the teeth.... it takes a pretty good easterly component to the track to get a miss at this point......if that trough is weaker or slower than progged and this thing does hit NC more directly there are a lot of places that did not evacuate and they are all maxed with tourist due to the 4th....they couldn't get them all out of the way now if they wanted too so it better go east....add a nighttime hit to the mix and its just UGH..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like NHC conservatively went up to 70 knots at 8am... given the 91 knot flight level winds at 74 knot (only slightly) rain contaminated obs. And the 74 kt isn't even contaminated. The 81kt is the one that is, but as you said, just barely. Probably should be 75 or 80 kts right now, imo. But then again, my opinion isn't really on the same level as the professionals at NHC, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 They are getting everyone off Hatteras Island today but they didn't announce till last night so I am not sure how many they have off....the track is going to be crucial if this thing goes over Emerald Isle into the sounds then the OBX will take it in the teeth.... it takes a pretty good easterly component to the track to get a miss at this point......if that trough is weaker or slower than progged and this thing does hit NC more directly there are a lot of places that did not evacuate and they are all maxed with tourist due to the 4th....they couldn't get them all out of the way now if they wanted too so it better go east....add a nighttime hit to the mix and its just UGH..... This is getting a little nerve racking thinking about the possibilities. If this thing really does blow up, anyone who didn't take the warning on the coast seriously is going to be stuck. Lots of rainfall too, Wilmington might have a good bit of flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The dropsonde 103kt wind at 925mb also supports between 85-90mph at the surface. They probably went with the strictly surface wind report at 70kt. But that will probably increase shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 They are getting everyone off Hatteras Island today but they didn't announce till last night so I am not sure how many they have off....the track is going to be crucial if this thing goes over Emerald Isle into the sounds then the OBX will take it in the teeth.... it takes a pretty good easterly component to the track to get a miss at this point......if that trough is weaker or slower than progged and this thing does hit NC more directly there are a lot of places that did not evacuate and they are all maxed with tourist due to the 4th....they couldn't get them all out of the way now if they wanted too so it better go east....add a nighttime hit to the mix and its just UGH..... The problem is that I think most of the people there are coming in expecting that the NHC's 85 mph intensity will be all they may get. If this storm continues to intensify, we are probably looking at a more substantial impact that is beyond what most individuals (emergency managers included) were expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The dropsonde 103kt wind at 925mb also supports between 85-90mph at the surface. 95 knots were recorded at 976 hPa... Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 987mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 71 knots (82 mph) 976mb 125° (from the SE) 95 knots (109 mph) 969mb 130° (from the SE) 87 knots (100 mph) 960mb 135° (from the SE) 109 knots (125 mph) 945mb 140° (from the SE) 104 knots (120 mph) 932mb 145° (from the SE) 107 knots (123 mph) 915mb 145° (from the SE) 100 knots (115 mph) 911mb 150° (from the SSE) 103 knots (119 mph) 906mb 155° (from the SSE) 113 knots (130 mph) 890mb 160° (from the SSE) 99 knots (114 mph) 865mb 160° (from the SSE) 91 knots (105 mph) 856mb 160° (from the SSE) 73 knots (84 mph) 850mb 160° (from the SSE) 78 knots (90 mph) 753mb 170° (from the S) 60 knots (69 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The problem is I think most of the people there are coming in expecting that the NHC's 85 mph intensity will be all they expect. If this storm continues to intensify, we are probably looking at a much more substantial impact that is beyond what most individuals (emergency managers included) were expecting.How does intensity currently compare to yesterday's model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 How does intensity currently compare to yesterday's model runs? Arthur seems to be on the very high end of the intensity model guidance looking at the archive guidance from 12 UTC yesterday (only the GFTI had it near 70 knots right now, and it was forecasting a max intensity of 85 knots). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Live phone call from hurricane hunters in TWC, said they found 82knots @ the surface. Contaminated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 How is this compared to Hurricane Alex (2004)? That was storm on a similar track (which never made an official landfall) with 100 mph sustained at its closest pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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