phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 There are some huge towers going up in the NE quadrant of this storm right now... again not atypical for a westerly sheared TC. However, more recently some of those towers are beginning to migrate in what was the barren western quadrant. The huge cirrus plume from the NE towers are over the western portion of the storm and should be gradually helping to moisten up the mid-level column (as long as westerly flow doesn't re-introduce dry air outside of the cirrus canopy). The red pixel below indicates cloud top height > 60,000 ft. Now that's a hot tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 WFO MHX going balsy: To bad its at night or I would ride down to Beaufort..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 recon positioning for a SW/NE pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Arthur seems to be helped by nocturnal convection that happens a lot in tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 next set of HDOBs should get us the extrapolated pressure minimum and some of the NE quadrant winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Lol and of course the pressure is missing during the center pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Max FL wind in the northeast quad pass was 60 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The hot tower that was present collapsed before recon got in there, and the overall structure on radar looks like its reorganizing again after looking more impressive an hour ago. I'm curious to know what the pressure is because it was starting to fall rapidly before they got in the center but then the observations went missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 06:21Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303) Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014 Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 9 Observation Number: 05 A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 5:54:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°49'N 79°11'W (30.8167N 79.1833W) B. Center Fix Location: 132 miles (212 km) to the SE (136°) from Hilton Head Island, SC, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,989m (9,806ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW/WSW (236°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 314° at 56kts (From the NW at ~ 64.4mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (235°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft) K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NE (39°) from the flight level center at 5:59:40Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NE (45°) from the flight level center Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... CENTER DROPSONDE SFC WIND 200/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Guess they didn't like the ride the last time at 5k, doing this one at 10k. Pressure hasn't dropped much either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Think he's getting choked. The wind field expanded, but looks like some more dry air got in there. It also looks like he's losing his outflow channel to the SE on the last few frames of Sat. loops, at least for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah, westerly shear is already impacting Arthur and it will only get stronger from here on out. Still think he will make it to Cat 1 hurricane status. Pretty much in line with NHC's forecast -- no one actually expected Arthur to bomb out, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I think someone told Arthur that it was now or never... Really starting to look good now on radar.. Probably will be cat 1 at 5am if not 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wow...radar looks dramatically better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 73900 3103N 07853W 6966 03019 //// +125 //// 191030 031 038 002 01073930 3102N 07851W 6965 03026 //// +120 //// 202040 046 049 007 01074000 3101N 07850W 6967 03031 //// +101 //// 205050 054 061 014 01074030 3100N 07849W 6964 03041 //// +105 //// 206062 065 061 015 01074100 3059N 07847W 6967 03049 //// +115 //// 211067 067 061 006 01074130 3058N 07846W 6965 03062 //// +107 //// 212063 067 061 007 05074200 3057N 07844W 6963 03070 //// +102 //// 215062 063 063 006 01074230 3055N 07843W 6967 03072 //// +100 //// 221063 064 061 005 01074300 3054N 07842W 6967 03079 //// +096 //// 221066 067 060 005 01074330 3053N 07841W 6971 03082 //// +095 //// 222065 067 059 005 01074400 3052N 07839W 6956 03103 //// +084 //// 228070 071 059 013 01074430 3050N 07838W 6979 03083 //// +079 //// 219068 070 060 021 01074500 3049N 07837W 6962 03108 //// +077 //// 216064 067 059 022 01074530 3048N 07836W 6970 03105 //// +077 //// 213065 067 056 014 01074600 3047N 07834W 6961 03119 //// +089 //// 215066 068 053 007 05074630 3046N 07833W 6969 03115 //// +070 //// 213065 068 054 017 01074700 3044N 07832W 6971 03116 //// +077 //// 215064 064 052 012 01074730 3043N 07831W 6967 03126 //// +078 //// 216065 066 051 006 01074800 3042N 07830W 6966 03132 //// +074 //// 217065 067 050 008 01074830 3041N 07828W 6981 03119 //// +078 //// 220067 069 047 013 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Assuming the aircraft in question continues to run about 4 MB too low with the pressure estimates it looks like we have a steady-state system. We'll see what the dropsonde shows when it comes in. Nice pressure gradient though. NOAA2 1001A ARTHUR HDOB 10 20140703074900 3119N 07926W 7510 02481 0005 +124 +122 026043 043 045 007 00074930 3117N 07924W 7507 02478 9995 +126 +118 025047 050 048 007 00075000 3116N 07923W 7504 02472 9977 +135 +117 025053 053 050 006 00075030 3114N 07921W 7505 02462 9963 +138 +122 023049 052 050 005 00075100 3113N 07919W 7535 02416 9942 +145 +132 019049 050 055 006 00075130 3112N 07917W 7531 02403 9917 +148 //// 014046 053 063 011 01075200 3111N 07914W 7526 02397 9888 +166 +148 012038 040 060 009 00075230 3111N 07912W 7509 02406 9878 +164 +143 019033 035 058 009 03075300 3111N 07910W 7504 02404 9866 +169 +126 013026 028 039 003 03075330 3110N 07908W 7511 02388 9859 +168 +123 008019 022 026 001 00075400 3110N 07905W 7532 02358 9857 +165 +126 007009 012 016 000 03075430 3110N 07903W 7511 02378 9851 +165 +136 124005 008 011 001 00075500 3109N 07901W 7509 02379 9845 +169 +137 156010 011 011 001 03075530 3108N 07859W 7513 02377 9846 +171 +128 210014 016 018 001 00075600 3107N 07857W 7507 02388 9860 +164 +123 217020 022 024 001 00075630 3105N 07856W 7510 02392 9874 +156 +121 214027 029 027 001 00075700 3104N 07854W 7510 02394 9878 +155 +121 212034 036 032 002 00075730 3102N 07852W 7517 02390 9885 +153 +139 213041 044 037 002 00075800 3101N 07851W 7509 02408 9895 +149 +146 214046 048 048 005 00075830 3100N 07849W 7504 02425 9903 +151 +140 214056 059 054 003 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 08:03ZCorrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 10A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 7:35:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°06'N 79°04'W (31.1N 79.0667W)B. Center Fix Location: 124 miles (199 km) to the SE (127°) from Hilton Head Island, SC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,977m (9,767ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the WNW (293°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 27° at 52kts (From the NNE at ~ 59.8mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Not AvailableM. Eye Shape: Not AvailableN. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section:Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the ESE (121°) from the flight level center at 7:44:00ZDropsondeSurface Wind at Center: From 240° at 7kts (From the WSW at 8mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NOAA aircraft just measured a 79 knot FL wind southeast of the center. URNT15 KWBC 030808NOAA2 1001A ARTHUR HDOB 11 20140703075900 3058N 07848W 7513 02423 9913 +151 +146 216061 062 055 004 00075930 3057N 07846W 7511 02435 9933 +142 +138 217061 062 055 006 00080000 3056N 07845W 7506 02447 9953 +132 //// 219061 062 055 006 01080030 3054N 07843W 7514 02451 9961 +134 //// 218059 061 059 003 01080100 3053N 07842W 7517 02453 9971 +132 //// 223061 062 058 006 01080130 3051N 07840W 7533 02442 9978 +132 //// 228067 073 061 011 01080200 3050N 07839W 7499 02486 9990 +127 //// 221072 079 063 026 01080230 3049N 07837W 7504 02490 9992 +133 //// 218070 072 063 028 01080300 3047N 07836W 7488 02516 0009 +125 //// 213073 073 057 024 01080330 3046N 07834W 7532 02472 0027 +118 //// 216070 071 055 010 01080400 3045N 07833W 7522 02488 0030 +122 //// 220071 071 053 010 01080430 3043N 07831W 7524 02492 0032 +123 //// 215065 066 054 016 01080500 3042N 07830W 7514 02505 0039 +120 //// 216064 065 054 009 01080530 3041N 07828W 7502 02523 0043 +122 +121 219064 065 052 005 00080600 3039N 07827W 7509 02522 0051 +120 //// 220064 065 049 007 01080630 3038N 07825W 7504 02529 0054 +122 //// 217062 064 052 015 01080700 3037N 07824W 7518 02517 0059 +119 //// 221065 069 055 024 01080730 3035N 07822W 7539 02497 0070 +115 //// 213059 061 054 023 01080800 3034N 07821W 7518 02524 0072 +116 //// 212061 061 049 010 01080830 3033N 07819W 7510 02536 0073 +120 +108 214060 060 044 003 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NOAA dropsonde just recorded a 985 MB surface pressure with a 6 knot wind speed at splashdown. I guess the 984 wasn't too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Interested to see if Arthur can keep this going or if we will continue his pattern of strengthening for a bit and then weakening for a bit...Haven't seen it looking this impressive on radar since earlier today when it was upgraded to 70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 08:21ZAircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 05A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 7:54:21ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°10'N 79°03'W (31.1667N 79.05W)B. Center Fix Location: 122 miles (196 km) to the SE (125°) from Hilton Head Island, SC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (280°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 25° at 53kts (From the NNE at ~ 61.0mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the WNW (289°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,462m (8,077ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,448m (8,031ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Not AvailableM. Eye Shape: Not AvailableN. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mileO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section:Dropsonde Wind at Center: From 85° at 7kts (From the E at 8mph)Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 79kts (~ 90.9mph) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 8:01:53ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the W/WNW (281°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Hurricane Arthur 5:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 Location: 31.3°N 79.1°WMoving: N at 9 mphMin pressure: 985 mbMax sustained: 75 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This ten page thread has been more interesting than the entire 2013 Hurricane Season was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like he may have finally choked off the dry air for awhile with the storms firing on the SE side of the center, radar looking better as well and the center might be tightening up a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 He's got 18 to 24 hrs left and he's moving over a hot drawn bath, 84 degree water temps. The dry air and sheer seem to have abated and he's re-establishing an outflow channel to the SW. Interesting thing, he's kinda of coming home. This storm started with that complex of storms that rolled off of the SE coast last week. Kinda brings a tear to your eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 He's got 18 to 24 hrs left and he's moving over a hot drawn bath, 84 degree water temps. The dry air and sheer seem to have abated and he's re-establishing an outflow channel to the SW. Interesting thing, he's kinda of coming home. This storm started with that complex of storms that rolled off of the SE coast last week. Kinda brings a tear to your eye yeah the real question now is where exactly is he gonna go....it wont take much of a left of track path to put a lot of eastern NC into its path.....the NHC seems sold on the turn and a OBX skirt and they are rarely wrong in this time frame but when they are wrong in thie time frame its usually a storm off the NC coast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It has been interesting to watch this vortex that developed from a MCV over Texas last week slowly work its way all the way around the Eastern Ridge and drop S along the Coast of Florida finally take on tropical characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Pressure down to 984mb with 11kt surface wind from the last dropsonde. Could actually be 983mb: Date: Near the closest hour of 9Z on the 3rd day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 31.3N 78.9W Location: 121 miles (195 km) to the SSE (148°) from Charleston, SC, USA. Marsden Square: 116 (About) LevelGeo. HeightAir Temp.Dew PointWind DirectionWind Speed984mb (29.06 inHg)Sea Level (Surface)26.4°C (79.5°F)25.4°C (77.7°F)195° (from the SSW)11 knots (13 mph)1000mb-140m (-459 ft)This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.925mb549m (1,801 ft)23.6°C (74.5°F)22.8°C (73.0°F)195° (from the SSW)9 knots (10 mph)850mb1,287m (4,222 ft)20.0°C (68.0°F)19.2°C (66.6°F)215° (from the SW)8 knots (9 mph)700mb2,948m (9,672 ft)12.8°C (55.0°F)Approximately 5°C (41°F)325° (from the NW)2 knots (2 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yea the eye and eyewall look like they are getting their act together this morning... still plenty of time to get this to cat 2 before its closest approach to Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Also note how the convection has wrapped all the way around Arthur for the first time last night and is continuing to wrap around this morning. Its still trying to mix out the remainder of the dry air, but the shear has decreased overhead of the system now that its moving east of due north. ECMWF is still suggesting an intensity of ~968 hPa near closest approach / landfall at Cape Hatteras. I think that will be close to its max intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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