Hurricane Arthur

[Superstorm93]

Could be a decent first system...

HRRR wind analysis

[Absolute Humidity]

Nice looking tower for a little pos

[phil882]

Per radar it looks like the center may be trying to redevelop further into the deep convection. Hard to tell of it's a mid level vortex or not but a decent velocity couplet is showing up embedded in the higher reflectivity returns.

[stormspotterlive]

That HRRR Model really wants to crank up the wind on the east side of the center overnight.

[phil882]

It's also worth noting this is the first time the HRRR has gotten agrees dove with TD#1. If the new center is developing in the embedded reflectivity, we might see more abrupt strengthening than predicted.

[Superstorm93]

It's also worth noting this is the first time the HRRR has gotten agrees dove with TD#1. If the new center is developing in the embedded reflectivity, we might see more abrupt strengthening than predicted.

Really looks like the center is beginning to get going off of TPBI. Convection continues to go off over the center, so it's possible that it could relocate in that area.

Would at least make a stronger system in the short term.

[BuffaloWeather]

Over/under this thing makes landfall?

[negative-nao]

Thunderstorms are starting to crank up near the center

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-rb-long.html

[Absolute Humidity]

Northerly shear appears to have decreased a tad; at least temporarily.

[smog strangler]

Forecasted track included

 

 

[Superstorm93]

Have to wait to see if TD1 becomes more organized with its convection, or if this is just another bursting episode.

Could be interesting if this sticks around.

[phil882]

Not sure if this is the center, but if you take a look at this loop you see a very interesting feature further south of where the center was listed. It was mentioned on TWC a bit ago, and has only looked better defined since.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=MLB-N0Q-1-48

That what I was referring to. It's has a significant velocity cuplet which indicates at least a robust mid-level vortex embedded in the convection. If the llc can align with this feature then we have a more interesting short term forecast.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

That what I was referring to. It's has a significant velocity cuplet which indicates at least a robust mid-level vortex embedded in the convection. If the llc can align with this feature then we have a more it's resting short term forecast.

A ship sampled easterly winds north of the new feature embedded within the deep convection and southeast of the low-level swirl, so I'd be more inclined to believe it exists at the surface. Perhaps the one in the convection will become dominant and the swirl exiting west-northwest will die off.

[wxmeddler]

A ship sampled easterly winds north of the new feature embedded within the deep convection and southeast of the low-level swirl, so I'd be more inclined to believe it exists at the surface. Perhaps the one in the convection will become dominant and the swirl exiting west-northwest will die off.

 

I'm thinking the same thing, although the larger (old) circulation is going to take some time to spin down due to the momentum of the mass of air it has spun up. I like the HRRR idea of things, with their being an elongation of the surface low before fujiwara'ing until it all consolidates.

[Turtle]

Could get interestin' up these here parts!!!  Hmmmm...real early, too.

 

--Turtle  

[calamity]

Per radar it looks like the center may be trying to redevelop further into the deep convection. Hard to tell of it's a mid level vortex or not but a decent velocity couplet is showing up embedded in the higher reflectivity returns.

 

I noticed that, too. Here's an example of center relocation in Alex (2004). There are probably more modern examples, but I selected Alex mainly because TD One is forecast to follow a similar track.

 

Oh, and obligatory CalamityLoop™:

[thewxmann]

Even the satellite appearances of Alex and soon-to-be Arthur look similar.

[arlwx]

_{TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2}

 

_{NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014}

 

_{500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014}

 

 

_{Radar and satellite imagery show little change in the organization}

 

_{of the tropical cyclone over the past few hours.  The main area of}

 

_{deep convection remains situated over the southern portion of the}

 

_{circulation, and banding features are not yet very prominent in}

 

_{enhanced infrared images.  Surface observations and Doppler radar}

 

_{velocities suggest that little strengthening has occurred thus far,}

 

_{and the current intensity is held at 30 kt.  This is also in}

 

_{agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, and}

 

_{objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.}

 

 

_{There hasn't been much motion early this morning, but the best}

 

_{guess is that the cyclone is now drifting mainly westward, or about}

 

_{260/2.  The overall steering scenario seems relatively}

 

_{straightforward.  A mid-tropospheric trough that is currently over}

 

_{the north-central United States is predicted by the global models}

 

_{to move eastward and dig a bit over the next several days.  This}

 

_{should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and}

 

_{north-northeastward with some acceleration during the next 2-3}

 

_{days, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an additional}

 

_{increase in forward speed later in the forecast period.  The}

 

_{official forecast track is similar to the previous one, close to}

 

_{the model consensus, and to the left of the latest ECMWF solution.}

 

 

_{Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification}

 

_{with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone}

 

_{during the next 72 hours or so.  The official intensity forecast}

 

_{now shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the}

 

_{latest intensity model consensus.  By the end of the forecast}

 

_{period, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge}

 

_{with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in}

 

_{extratropical transition.}

 

 

_{FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS}

 

 

_{INIT  01/0900Z 27.6N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH}

 

_{12H  01/1800Z 27.9N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH}

 

_{24H  02/0600Z 28.5N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH}

 

_{36H  02/1800Z 29.5N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH}

 

_{48H  03/0600Z 30.8N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH}

 

_{72H  04/0600Z 34.3N  76.4W   65 KT  75 MPH}

 

_{96H  05/0600Z 39.5N  69.5W   65 KT  75 MPH}

 

_{120H  06/0600Z 44.0N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP}

 

 

_$$

 

_{Forecaster Pasch}

[IsentropicLift]

Per latest radar imagery it would appear that thunderstorms are close to wrapping entirely around the center. It also appears to be drifing ever so slightly to the WNW.

[Kory]

The center looks like it has finally started its trek NNW.  It's right on the northern edge of the CDO and looks like it separating from the heaviest convection.

 

[Supercane]

The center looks like it has finally started its trek NNW.  It's right on the northern edge of the CDO and looks like it separating from the heaviest convection.

 

Looks like it's still drifting WNW to me. I'm not seeing any increased separation from the convection either:

 

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[shaggy]

The strength of that trough and how much it digs is going to be the main driver of how far west this system can get during the recurve correct? Any more west shift on the track brings it onshore so its going to be real close. Looks like I might have to make that drive to morehead city Friday.

[IsentropicLift]

Looks like outflow is finally starting to become established as the CDO is expanding nicely in the latest IR loop.

 

[Superstorm93]

Note: Mods please change the title of the thread once recon gets in and finds a tropical storm.

I will be working most of the day.

[boulderrr]

We have Arthur:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Kory]

Looks like a slight NW shift in the track...actually bringing it very close, if not over, the Outer Banks as a hurricane.  Luckily, it will be racing NE by that time and should clear out quick.  

[Supercane]

Looks like it will become a hurricane later on today

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145625.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

 

No, the forecast is for it to become a hurricane Thursday or Friday.

[Kory]

Looks like it's still drifting WNW to me. I'm not seeing any increased separation from the convection either:

 

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

My bad...it must've been an eddy that I saw spinning around the main circulation.  

[IsentropicLift]

No, the forecast is for it to become a hurricane Thursday or Friday.

The NHC mentioned in the discussion that the outflow is improving a bit ahead of schedule on the northern semicircle. I would think if that's the case we could see steady strengthening the rest of the way.

[wxmeddler]

The center that is embedded in the convection is doing a bit of fujiwara'ing attm. A ship report in the convection about an hour ago reported 1002mb and 41mph sustained out of the SSW.