SnoSki14 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 People said we wouldn't Wednesday thru Friday from the 'Polar vortex' This weekend was due to clouds and winds off the ocean It really wasn't that cloudy but the easterly flow helped true and we are escaping the hottest period with modest heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 It really wasn't that cloudy but the easterly flow helped true and we are escaping the hottest period with modest heat. I was cloudy most of Saturday until late afternoon. Yesterday was beautiful with deep blue skies and very few clouds. Reminded me more of an early September weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 People said we wouldn't Wednesday thru Friday from the 'Polar vortex' This weekend was due to clouds and winds off the ocean Wasn't too cloudy here in Northern Queens. Saturday was for part of the day but yesterday was sunny for 90% of the time. It was the easterly flow off the 65-70 degree water surrounding our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 has anyone been able to view the euro today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 has anyone been able to view the euro today? No, they had a power outage. ECMWF 12z delayed (Updated 1:45 PM EDT): Due to the earlier power outage problems at ECMWF, our operational products for the 12-UTC cycle for the Global High Resolution Deterministic Atmospheric Model will be delayed by a few hours from the scheduled time. As soon as we have further details we will inform you. Our sincere apologies for the inconvenience caused by this delay to our dissemination products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 No, they had a power outage. ECMWF 12z delayed (Updated 1:45 PM EDT): Due to the earlier power outage problems at ECMWF, our operational products for the 12-UTC cycle for the Global High Resolution Deterministic Atmospheric Model will be delayed by a few hours from the scheduled time. As soon as we have further details we will inform you. Our sincere apologies for the inconvenience caused by this delay to our dissemination products. Thanks for the info. Still hasn't updated from what I can see. For what its worth the 12 and 18z GFS and ensembles are back to building in the WAR for the opening of August. Looking warm/humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 Todays highs TEB: 88PHL: 86 NYC: 85EWR: 85New Brnswick: 85LGA: 84TTN: 84JFK: 83ISP: 82ACY: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 so far KNYC is averaging 76.6 for July and the long range could drop it a bit...Last year had a 30 day period that averaged 81.7...2010 averaged 81.8 for their hottest 30 day period...2011 warmest 30 days was 81.0...2012 was 79.5...All four years were above the average warmest 30 day period of 78.0 est...2009 was 75.8...we could be on the cooler side this year with a 30 day period of 76.5-77.0... some warm and cool warmest 30 day periods... 82.5 in 198081.9 in 187681.9 in 199981.8 in 200581.8 in 201081.7 in 201381.6 in 195581.2 in 199381.1 in 199581.1 in 198881.0 in 196681.0 in 201180.9 in 1983................................72.7 in 200074.4 in 199274.8 in 200474.9 in 199675.0 in 196075.0 in 195075.1 in 195675.5 in 194575.6 in 196275.7 in 1965 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Major Blocking on the 12Z Euro. Something that's seen in mid to late winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 How will that blocking affect our weather in mid summer?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 I am seeing Wednesday 7/23 as one of those see text over achiever days from the SPC. They seem wrong with the slight risk of severe in just northern New England. Expect a watch box, and severe reports except Suffolk Long Island. The modest to moderate WSW flow at 500 and 300 heights vs. SW flow has my interest.The Lifted index to -7, Cape to 1500 and Shear to 35 knts is holding interest for a severe squall line from 7 PM thru 10 PM to come through most of the area. Timing is improving for severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening and not later at night. I could see NYC having nasty line approaching almost severe at 6:45 to 7:15 PM I bet this is one of those solid lines that effects all of NYC, and western half of LI with near severe reports, and pitch dark skies at around 6:30 PM from the west. Suffolk county would see strong thunderstorms with slight weakening, but do not see the line fizzing out till east of Long Island, with very good elevated instability out over the ocean too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 How will that blocking affect our weather in mid summer?? It will keep the trough over the Lakes like we have seen for so long with near to below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 The big -EPO reloads, has mostly given us -AO/-NAO/+PNA patterns since the last winter. It's been relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Pretty good concencus now for a large trough over the east to end July, open August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Pretty good concencus now for a large trough over the east to end July, open August Could be a very rainy setup if that happens, much like last week with the slow to move trough over the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Could be a very rainy setup if that happens, much like last week with the slow to move trough over the Midwest. Wait? You actually agree with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 2PM roundup very cloudy out there, and that will limit any 90s. TEB: 89 NYC: 84 EWR: 87 LGA: 85 JFK: 83 ISP: 84 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 2PM roundup very cloudy out there, and that will limit any 90s. TEB: 89 NYC: 84 EWR: 87 LGA: 85 JFK: 83 ISP: 84 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 85 I expected it to feel warmer outside today then when I went out at lunch. The humidity hasn't kicked back in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 Pretty good concencus now for a large trough over the east to end July, open August Trough really digs in 7./27 - 7/30. Still some hints the WAR builds in by early August and we ride the very humid flow of the western edge of the WAR and eastern edge of the GL/MW trough. Agree rain chances look increased along with humidity, and potentially warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Trough really digs in 7./27 - 7/30. Still some hints the WAR builds in by early August and we ride the very humid flow of the western edge of the WAR and eastern edge of the GL/MW trough. Agree rain chances look increased along with humidity, and potentially warm. Didn't we have a similar pattern last July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 The Euro is dry for Wednesday now, activity comes through early Thursday morning. Likely just a few remnant showers at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Wait? You actually agree with me? I don't remember disagreeing with you about the last rainy period we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 Didn't we have a similar pattern last July? Actually the pattern in mid/late June 2013 before the WAR built and merged with the Rockies ridge, yes. Humid, warm and wet times ahead 7/31 - 8/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 The Euro is dry for Wednesday now, activity comes through early Thursday morning. Likely just a few remnant showers at that point. if that's the case, we're in for a dry stretch as it looks dry through the weekend so we'd go roughly 10 days or so without meaningful rain going back to last Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Didn't we have a similar pattern last July? difference was there was no big trough over the GL so the heat just roared in. Verbatim this setup's more unsettled, humid, but not hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 if that's the case, we're in for a dry stretch as it looks dry through the weekend so we'd go roughly 10 days or so without meaningful rain going back to last Wed. early next week still looks wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 early next week still looks wet agree, it's short lived before a potentially wet/humid pattern sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Let's just be clear and say the heat is simply not coming and don't tell me 90F is hot either when last July only hitting 90F would be considered unusually cool. I don't see anymore heat waves unless there's a huge pattern change and that's unlikely with the GL trough basically locked in. Getting an occasional 90F in July is about as shocking as seeing low 30s for highs in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Sorry I work outside and today is pretty uncomfortable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Sorry I work outside and today is pretty uncomfortable i thought you loved heat and humidity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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