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July 2014


SACRUS

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People said we wouldn't Wednesday thru Friday from the 'Polar vortex' This weekend was due to clouds and winds off the ocean

 

Wasn't too cloudy here in Northern Queens. Saturday was for part of the day but yesterday was sunny for 90% of the time.

It was the easterly flow off the 65-70 degree water surrounding our area.

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has anyone been able to view the euro today?

No, they had a power outage.

 

ECMWF 12z delayed (Updated 1:45 PM EDT): Due to the earlier power outage problems at ECMWF, our operational products for the 12-UTC cycle for the Global High Resolution Deterministic Atmospheric Model will be delayed by a few hours from the scheduled time. As soon as we have further details we will inform you. Our sincere apologies for the inconvenience caused by this delay to our dissemination products.

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No, they had a power outage.

 

ECMWF 12z delayed (Updated 1:45 PM EDT): Due to the earlier power outage problems at ECMWF, our operational products for the 12-UTC cycle for the Global High Resolution Deterministic Atmospheric Model will be delayed by a few hours from the scheduled time. As soon as we have further details we will inform you. Our sincere apologies for the inconvenience caused by this delay to our dissemination products.

 

Thanks for the info.  Still hasn't updated from what I can see.

 

For what its worth the 12 and 18z GFS and ensembles are back to building in the WAR for the opening of August.  Looking warm/humid

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so far KNYC is averaging 76.6 for July and the long range could drop it a bit...Last year had a 30 day period that averaged 81.7...2010 averaged 81.8 for their hottest 30 day period...2011 warmest 30 days was 81.0...2012 was 79.5...All four years were above the average warmest 30 day period of 78.0 est...2009 was 75.8...we could be on the cooler side this year with a 30 day period of 76.5-77.0...

some warm and cool warmest 30 day periods...

82.5 in 1980
81.9 in 1876
81.9 in 1999
81.8 in 2005
81.8 in 2010
81.7 in 2013
81.6 in 1955
81.2 in 1993
81.1 in 1995
81.1 in 1988
81.0 in 1966
81.0 in 2011
80.9 in 1983
................................
72.7 in 2000
74.4 in 1992
74.8 in 2004
74.9 in 1996
75.0 in 1960
75.0 in 1950
75.1 in 1956
75.5 in 1945
75.6 in 1962
75.7 in 1965

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I am seeing Wednesday 7/23 as one of those see text over achiever days from the SPC. They seem wrong with the slight risk of severe in just northern New England. Expect a watch box, and severe reports except Suffolk Long Island. The modest to moderate WSW flow at 500 and 300 heights vs. SW flow has my interest.

The Lifted index to -7, Cape to 1500 and Shear to 35 knts is holding interest for a severe squall line from 7 PM thru 10 PM to come through most of the area. Timing is improving for severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening and not later at night.  I could see NYC having nasty line approaching almost severe at 6:45 to 7:15 PM

 

I bet this is one of those solid lines that effects all of NYC, and western half of LI with near severe reports, and pitch dark skies at around 6:30 PM from the west. Suffolk county would see strong thunderstorms with slight weakening, but do not see the line fizzing out till east of Long Island, with very good elevated instability out over the ocean too.

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Pretty good concencus now for a large trough over the east to end July, open August

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

Trough really digs in 7./27 - 7/30.  Still some hints the WAR builds in by early August and we ride the very humid flow of the western edge of the WAR and eastern edge of the GL/MW trough.  Agree rain chances look increased along with humidity, and potentially warm.

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Trough really digs in 7./27 - 7/30.  Still some hints the WAR builds in by early August and we ride the very humid flow of the western edge of the WAR and eastern edge of the GL/MW trough.  Agree rain chances look increased along with humidity, and potentially warm.

Didn't we have a similar pattern last July?

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The Euro is dry for Wednesday now, activity comes through early Thursday morning. Likely just a few remnant showers at that point.

if that's the case, we're in for a dry stretch as it looks dry through the weekend so we'd go roughly 10 days or so without meaningful rain going back to last Wed.

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Let's just be clear and say the heat is simply not coming and don't tell me 90F is hot either when last July only hitting 90F would be considered unusually cool. I don't see anymore heat waves unless there's a huge pattern change and that's unlikely with the GL trough basically locked in. Getting an occasional 90F in July is about as shocking as seeing low 30s for highs in January. 

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