MJO812 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 By nasty I mean hot, humid and stormy. As opposed to the beautiful weather for the last two days. Nothing better than sleeping with the windows open in July. This FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 The good news is that any warm up is what would be considered a transient cold shot during the winter, if it even comes, since it's been the theme all Summer for the models to back down on the big heat as it draws closer. The ECMWF ensembles are pretty awesome going into August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 The good news is that any warm up is what would be considered a transient cold shot during the winter, if it even comes, since it's been the theme all Summer for the models to back down on the big heat as it draws closer. The ECMWF ensembles are pretty awesome going into August. July is flying. Soon you know it, autumn will be here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 July is flying. Soon you know it, autumn will be here I hate Autumn because I hate everything dying off and I hate the days getting shorter. Once I get past the initial shock of it all (Sometime around Halloween) I start looking forward to the holidays and then snow. I love snow but I love warm weather too. My favorite month is June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 18, 2014 Author Share Posted July 18, 2014 The good news is that any warm up is what would be considered a transient cold shot during the winter, if it even comes, since it's been the theme all Summer for the models to back down on the big heat as it draws closer. The ECMWF ensembles are pretty awesome going into August. The cool/troughs have been transient into our area as well. That trough and cooldown 7/26 - 7/30 looks to be followed by warmer weather into early August. back and forth with neither cold or heat locking in for any prolonged time yet and overall near or slightly above normal. Assume if you rolled into Aug 1st the heights would be flatter into the east already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 18, 2014 Author Share Posted July 18, 2014 bone chilling... i hope everyone wears a coat today Got pretty cool in suburbia last night but the media hype for our area was unnecessary. d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 The cool/troughs have been transient into our area as well. That trough and cooldown 7/26 - 7/30 looks to be followed by warmer weather into early August. back and forth with neither cold or heat locking in for any prolonged time yet and overall near or slightly above normal. Assume if you rolled into Aug 1st the heights would be flatter into the east already. No, it honestly looks like the troughing is going to setup shop for an extended period of time. The 00z GEFS ensembles have a mean trough in the east through the end of their run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Got pretty cool in suburbia last night but the media hype for our area was unnecessary. d Got down to 62 here early this morning after dropping down to 59.8 yesterday. Went to bed both nights with just a thin sheet, windows open and the fan on high, woke up both mornings freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 I wouldn't really say that we've had many cool shots. They have been equal to the warm spells that we've had so far. Most locations are in the 0 to +2 departure this month. We've had no real shortage of humidity, excpet for July 4th and the last two days. Luckily the high humidity levels for the most part have not been combined with super hot temperatures making them somewhat berable. I know that when I was down in Virginia the airmass out ahead of Arthur was pretty disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 The Euro has a very interesting setup for next Thursday into Friday. It's going to come down to exactly how much the energy amplifies but it brings through a fairly potent short wave, especially for this time of year. That swings down from the lakes and then off the coast. It definitly looks MCS'ish which of course will be terribly hard to predict this far out, but it looks to be a large system. The control run is spitting out 3-5" of rain with this system. The Euro op is an areawide 2" with multiple waves of heavy convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 57 here this morning. I've been unimpressed with the cool shots in the Northeast. We've essentially been in the same overall pattern since late spring -- temperatures averaging near to slightly above normal with no prolonged heat yet no prolonged cool either. This has been one of the most stagnant, persistent patterns I recall in awhile actually. Continual rebuilding of the Western US ridge via NPAC forcing and the West Atlantic resistance resulting in predominately humid weather at the east coast. While this summer has been drastically less humid than 2013, I wouldn't call it cool by any stretch. In July of 2009 we recorded countless days with highs in the mid/upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s in suburbia. Today was only my 2nd low under 60 degrees for the month of July. Most have been in the mid to upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 The cool/troughs have been transient into our area as well. That trough and cooldown 7/26 - 7/30 looks to be followed by warmer weather into early August. back and forth with neither cold or heat locking in for any prolonged time yet and overall near or slightly above normal. Assume if you rolled into Aug 1st the heights would be flatter into the east already. Strongly agree Tony. The pattern for late July looks generally near normal. Surges of higher 850mb air from the SW should be cut-off in the NW flow aloft, yet the mean trough should remain to our west. Actually could become an interesting pattern convection wise, with predominately summery, near normal weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 57 here this morning. I've been unimpressed with the cool shots in the Northeast. We've essentially been in the same overall pattern since late spring -- temperatures averaging near to slightly above normal with no prolonged heat yet no prolonged cool either. This has been one of the most stagnant, persistent patterns I recall in awhile actually. Continual rebuilding of the Western US ridge via NPAC forcing and the West Atlantic resistance resulting in predominately humid weather at the east coast. While this summer has been drastically less humid than 2013, I wouldn't call it cool by any stretch. In July of 2009 we recorded countless days with highs in the mid/upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s in suburbia. Today was only my 2nd low under 60 degrees for the month of July. Most have been in the mid to upper 60s. Yeah one of the summer forecasts I think by EPAWA was for above normal temperatures and below normal precip which was kind of going against most forecasts of cooler and wetter. Not sure we'll end up below normal but almost certainly we'll be above in the temp department all said and done by 1-2 degrees. Overall I can't really complain because we haven't had alot of heat but have had alot of good thunderstorms this summer compared with the past few but even lovers of heat can't say its been cold or rainy since the weekends have almost all been nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 One thing that I really enjoy about Autumn is the return of a robust jet stream and stronger synoptic systems. You can get some real doozys in October-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Got down to 62 here early this morning after dropping down to 59.8 yesterday. Went to bed both nights with just a thin sheet, windows open and the fan on high, woke up both mornings freezing. 54 for a low up here this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 this week is the hottest week on average...Last year it was near 100 on this date I think...The summer is averaging above average because of above average minimums...August will be hear soon and it should start getting cooler sometime during the month...We can't rule out a real heat wave in August...I hope we don't see any major heat...here in Florida it is hot but drier today..I'll probably drive home starting Sunday and I'll probably hit some storms along I95 this time...coming down was a breeze with no traffic or rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 bone chilling... i hope everyone wears a coat today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 One thing that I really enjoy about Autumn is the return of a robust jet stream and stronger synoptic systems. You can get some real doozys in October-November. October storm a few years ago and the November snowstorm in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 October storm a few years ago and the November snowstorm in 2012. I wasn't referring to snow storms in October that don't serve any purpose other than knock out my power. Besides that year sucked for snow after that, it was like an early season kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 If your not talking winter weather, September to November Storms are without a doubt the worst storms for the tri-state area. There have been many windy and rainy baroclinic and tropical storms that have knocked out my power for days. Its only recently that we've seen what a real tropical system can do to the area when energized by a winter time trough and pulled to the west of the tri-state area. I never got to see Sandy, but I did get to see baroclinic storms take the same trajectory and producing winds of 40-80 MPH. Alot of blown transformers during those events. I wasn't referring to snow storms in October that don't serve any purpose other than knock out my power. Besides that year sucked for snow after that, it was like an early season kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 If your not talking winter weather, September to November Storms are without a doubt the worst storms for the tri-state area. There have been many windy and rainy baroclinic and tropical storms that have knocked out my power for days. Its only recently that we've seen what a real tropical system can do to the area when energized by a winter time trough and pulled to the west of the tri-state area. I never got to see Sandy, but I did get to see baroclinic storms take the same trajectory and producing winds of 40-80 MPH. Alot of blown transformers during those events. Sandy was far worse than any purely baroclinic Oct-Nov storm I've ever seen growing up on coastal Long Island. I suppose that had the 1991 Perfect Storm made the same trajectory things could have been similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 If your not talking winter weather, September to November Storms are without a doubt the worst storms for the tri-state area. There have been many windy and rainy baroclinic and tropical storms that have knocked out my power for days. Its only recently that we've seen what a real tropical system can do to the area when energized by a winter time trough and pulled to the west of the tri-state area. I never got to see Sandy, but I did get to see baroclinic storms take the same trajectory and producing winds of 40-80 MPH. Alot of blown transformers during those events. I was referring to your typical October 4" rain/40MPH winds noreaster. Not a once a milenium anomoly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Lets get back to july Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Lets get back to july Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 As utterly normal as one can get for my temp departures thus far this summer. +0.1 for the month of June and +0.2 for July so far. Mean max for July is 85.7 and mean min is 66.7, so overnight lows definitely milder with respect to normal than daytime highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 This pattern fast forward should start to deliver some intense cool shots so that'll be nice. And any heat will be no different than some of the heat we've already seen. It's snooze worthy. Let me know if there are any upper 90s to 100s in the forecast and then I'll be impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 This pattern fast forward should start to deliver some intense cool shots so that'll be nice. And any heat will be no different than some of the heat we've already seen. It's snooze worthy. Let me know if there are any upper 90s to 100s in the forecast and then I'll be impressed.it'll get hot and you'll disappear again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 LOL at the day 9 Euro, talk about trough amplification, is this February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 it'll get hot and you'll disappear again I sure will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Buh bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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