REDMK6GLI Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 a risk is not a guarantee I obviously know that but a day 6 risk issued by the SPC is pretty bullish considering the kind of hostile environment we will live from E.PA to the coastal areas for widespread severe events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Yeah we'll probably get one or two days around 80 for our cool shot It will likely be much cooler then that. Try mid 70's at best. Tough night time lows will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 I see near normal July temps from now until the foreseeable future. I'm not sold on any severe early next week either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 It will likely be much cooler then that. Try mid 70's at best. Tough night time lows will be very interesting. I think that will largely depend on clouds but I kinda agree one day near or just shy of 80 in the metro areas. I do think this is a 3 day of negatives before moderating to and above normal on/around 7/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 I see near normal July temps from now until the foreseeable future. I'm not sold on any severe early next week either. Sun - Tue could be sneaky warm pending on clouds and storms before the cooldown. Beyond there there is some support for warmer/humid flow returning by the 21st. Western Atl ridge on the move and building west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The midwest is going to see the bulk of greater departures from normal. Many places may be in the 60's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Some storms firing up over PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Going to be a dumpage here shortly. Skies are dark and convection to the west is building and sliding east very slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Been getting dumped on in Morristown for a good twenty minutes now. Few light gusts, some cloud to cloud strikes... But wow, what a surprise deluge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Moderate rain here for the past 15 minutes with two rumbles of thunder and very dark skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Heavy rain in Lake Hiawatha / Parsippany for the past 20-30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The midwest is going to see the bulk of greater departures from normal. Many places may be in the 60's! And some may stay in the 50's if there's more clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Todays guidance continues to support a quick moderation between 7/20 - 7/21 after the trough lifts out. We may see a strong turn around from the 3 - 4 day cooldown to a decent warmup. Plenty of time to track how things progress with the extent of the cool and subsequent warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 From the WPC. The origins are debatable, since there are two disturbances involved. But if this were April or May this would simply be called an anomalous closed 500mb low or a cut-off low: A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP UPPER LOW... NOT THE POLAR VORTEX AS ITS ORIGINS ARE FROM THE NE PACIFIC... WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN IMPRESSIVE COLD SHOT OF AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND THEN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Euro is drier for Monday now but still looks good for Tuesday. Widespread activity before 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 It will likely be much cooler then that. Try mid 70's at best. Tough night time lows will be very interesting. Doesn't look that way. Upton has 2 days in the low 80s..overnight lows around 60 for most areas. Certainly nothing record breaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 If we can get a couple days of 850's near +10c or a bit below, which the best opportunity will probably be Weds/Thurs, then high temps in the 75-78F range are possible. It's going to be tough to see temps cooler than the mid/upper 70s with full July sun. But with low dew points, even upper 70s will feel September like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Through the first third of the month here's how the major stations are for monthly departures. Looks like 7/12 - 7/21 may wind up near normal for the 10 days but it wouldn't surprise me if the warmer departures in front and behind the mid week cool down over perform and push sites on the +. NYC: +1.7 LGA: +1.6 JFK: +1.5 EWR: +2.0 TTN: +1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 1PM Roundup : Another great weekend on tap and I may have lost count but its easily 10 of 12 since May. TEB: 86 NYC: 84 EWR: 85 LDJ: 86 LGA: 86 JFK: 80 ISP: 81 New Brnswck: 85 BLM: 81 TTN: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Doesn't look that way. Upton has 2 days in the low 80s..overnight lows around 60 for most areas. Certainly nothing record breaking This will again depend on cloud cover and any rain. I still think we may see one day not reach 80 but this is looking like a quick cooldown before more warmth and some heat returns by the 21st. Sneaky heat tomorrow/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Todays highs TEB: 89LDJ: 89PHL: 89New Brnswck: 88TTN: 88 LGA: 86NYC: 85 EWR: 85ISP: 82JFK: 82 ACY: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Cloudy and showery start to the day will certainly limit temps today. Does look like longer breaks of sun for part of the afternoon before storms arrive tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 it rained when rain wasn't in the forecast until this afternoon... damn you Upton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Today looks just like scattered convection away from the coast and tuesday being the best shot for some good thunderstorm action for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Wow...a seriously cool 41 F at 11:00 AM local time in Churchill, Manitoba...on the western shore of Hudson Bay...they have cool summers there...but that it still a significant negative departure for shortly before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Upto 87 here in CNJ the last hour as the sun has been out 3PM roundup TEB: 85 NYC: 80 EWR: 83 LDJ: 87 LGA: 81 JFK: 79 ISP: 81 New Bnswick: 88 BLM: 82 TTN: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 84 here earlier before se wind... very similar temps last three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Wow...a seriously cool 41 F at 11:00 AM local time in Churchill, Manitoba...on the western shore of Hudson Bay...they have cool summers there...but that it still a significant negative departure for shortly before noon. https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-42_metric_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Got to 88F here before the rain right now. Small heavy shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 Todays Highs- PHL: 91LDJ: 91TEB: 89TTN: 89New Brnswck: 88EWR: 86NYC: 83JFK: 82ACY: 82LGA: 81ISP: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.