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July 2014


SACRUS

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It will likely be much cooler then that. Try mid 70's at best. Tough night time lows will be very interesting.

 

I think that will largely depend on clouds but I kinda agree one day near or just shy of 80 in the metro areas.  I do think this is a 3 day of negatives before moderating to and above normal on/around 7/21

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I see near normal July temps from now until the foreseeable future. I'm not sold on any severe early next week either. 

 

Sun - Tue could be sneaky warm pending on clouds and storms before the cooldown. Beyond there there is some support for warmer/humid flow returning by the 21st.  Western Atl ridge on the move and building west again.

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Todays guidance continues to support a quick moderation between 7/20 - 7/21 after the trough lifts out.  We may see a strong turn around from the 3 - 4 day cooldown to a decent warmup.   Plenty of time to track  how things progress with the extent of the cool and subsequent warmup.

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From the WPC. The origins are debatable, since there are two disturbances involved.

But if this were April or May this would simply be called an anomalous closed 500mb low or a cut-off low:

A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

IS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. A

DEEP UPPER LOW... NOT THE POLAR VORTEX AS ITS ORIGINS ARE FROM THE

NE PACIFIC... WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK

WITH AN IMPRESSIVE COLD SHOT OF AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND THEN

SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST.

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If we can get a couple days of 850's near +10c or a bit below, which the best opportunity will probably be Weds/Thurs, then high temps in the 75-78F range are possible. It's going to be tough to see temps cooler than the mid/upper 70s with full July sun. But with low dew points, even upper 70s will feel September like.

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Through the first third of the month here's how the major stations are for monthly departures.  Looks like 7/12 - 7/21 may wind up near normal for the 10 days but it wouldn't surprise me if the warmer departures in front and behind the mid week cool down over perform and push sites on the +.

 

NYC:  +1.7

LGA:  +1.6

JFK:  +1.5

EWR: +2.0

TTN: +1.7

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Doesn't look that way. Upton has 2 days in the low 80s..overnight lows around 60 for most areas. Certainly nothing record breaking

 

This will again depend on cloud cover and any rain.  I still think we may see one day not reach 80 but this is looking like a quick cooldown before more warmth and some heat returns by the 21st.  Sneaky heat tomorrow/Monday

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Guest Pamela

Wow...a seriously cool 41 F at 11:00 AM local time in Churchill, Manitoba...on the western shore of Hudson Bay...they have cool summers there...but that it still a significant negative departure for shortly before noon. 

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