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July 2014


SACRUS

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This year has been impressive already...compared to the one flash of lightning I saw all of last year

It was impressive for many away from the coastal areas. Those where me and jm1220 are we are still trying to get a good thunderstorm here but likely will not happen

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It was impressive for many away from the coastal areas. Those where me and jm1220 are we are still trying to get a good thunderstorm here but likely will not happen

 

The only impressive severe days the last few years with an ENE to NE storm motion were the 2 tornado days.

But that happened when the SST's were running in the mid to upper 70's. We need the storms to be moving

due east or SE to have a shot at severe. We have had more ENE to NE to moving storms this year

with the lack of a good ridge to our west.

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that line traversing E.PA that is severe warned looks to be passing to the north of us around Westchester, so unless any other storms pop up south of that doubt any of us in this area will see much rain let alone a thunderstorm this evening, unless you are In Westchester county on N&W

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Natures air conditioning especially for the Great Lakes-Midwest as the polar vortex goes to work.

The 96 at Newark last week may be the high for the month if temperatures can't rebound

during the last week of July.

 

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Natures air conditioning especially for the Great Lakes-Midwest as the polar vortex goes to work.

The 96 at Newark last week may be the high for the month if temperatures can't rebound

during the last week of July.

D7.gif

Wow... that's record chill for the Midwest and Great Lakes with very cool conditions around here. Rest of July looking really cool around here. Makes sense given overall pattern.

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Wow... that's record chill for the Midwest and Great Lakes with very cool conditions around here. Rest of July looking really cool around here. Makes sense given overall pattern.

 

One of the strongest July cold shots into the nations midsection in a long time.

 

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS

CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA...AND THE 00Z RUN GFS HAS COME ON BOARD

BIG TIME...ABOUT LARGE COLD CORE VORTEX/COOL SEASON LOOKING

PATTERN SET UP ACRS THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ARE ADVERTISING A DEEP L/W UPPER TROF ACRS THE

GRT LKS WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST OUT OF

CANADA/NORTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY REGION. THE MAIN STORM TRACK COULD

BE SHUNTED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF...WHILE THE UPPER

MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS GET INUNDATED WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COLD AIR. BOTH THE GFS AND

ECMWF NOW ADVERTISE SINGLE DIGIT H85 MB TEMPS INTO OR VERY CLOSE

TO THE DVN CWA FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WED. IF ENOUGH

CLOUD COVER...SOME SIGNS THAT HIGH TEMPS DURING FROM TUE INTO

WED/MID NEXT WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S...AND RECORD

OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AND

SFC WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH. WILL TREND DOWN TEMPS AT THE END OF THE

EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW...AND AWAIT ANY FURTHER MODEL OR

TELECONNECTION AGREEMENT IN THE RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ..12..

 

 

 

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Coolest temps in our area look to occur 7/17 - 7/20.  It looks like we'll moderate by that weekend  (7/21)and some hints the WAR builds in towards the 7/22.  Warm/humid stormy days  (7/14-15) ahead of the front and subsequent trough.

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WPC mentioning Polar Vortex

 

"IN THE EAST, A BONAFIDE POLAR VORTEX APPEARS DESTINED TO NESTLE INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, DELIVERING REMARKABLY COOL, DRY AIR INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE GREATEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE POLAR FRONT ONCE IT SETTLES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH--IN THE CLOUDY, RAINY ZONE WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
WILL SEND THE DRY-BULB READINGS TOWARD THE WET-BULB VALUES. SUCH A SYNOPTIC SET-UP IS THE VERY RECIPE FOR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING WHAT IT CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR."

 

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I wish it was oriented a bit more to the east. I'd love to feel the full effects of the cool Canadian air.

I went to Lake Placid in early August 2004. We had a similar cool air intrusion. The lows were in the upper 30s in the area and the high one of the days only reached the mid 50s. With the smell of burning wood and the Christmas store in town full of people it felt more like late November than early August.

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WOW SPC has us in a risk on day 6 - I dont think I have ever seen that here in the East.

"DAY 6 /TUESDAY/ A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM
   THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NERN STATES AS A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND
   PROFILES AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO BE IN
   PLACE."

Recent summers these have favored either the mid atlantic or NE/NNY, while we get scattered convection. Im holding off any excitement for this (away from the coast) until sunday

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I wish it was oriented a bit more to the east. I'd love to feel the full effects of the cool Canadian air.

I went to Lake Placid in early August 2004. We had a similar cool air intrusion. The lows were in the upper 30s in the area and the high one of the days only reached the mid 50s. With the smell of burning wood and the Christmas store in town full of people it felt more like late November than early August.

 

Yeah we'll probably get one or two days around 80 for our cool shot

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:axe:

There's no doubting that when we were under that moderate hatched risk 2013 for that derecho and it fell apart soon as it entered NJ. Seems our best days were on scattered severe days not organized events. These long range SPC risks are like kisses of death especially around this area :lol:

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