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July 2014


SACRUS

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Drove home from Monmouth medical around 10 pm there were trees and branches everywhere I took a pic of cross road in colts neck there were trees and branches down the entire length of the road .

Power was out and came back around 1 am

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It's going to be impressive next week to see the the polar vortex drop down from the Arctic into

the Great Lakes during July. There should be a nice stream of convection along the cold front.

That pattern began last last August and just locked in.

 

 

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It's going to be impressive next week to see the the polar vortex drop down from the Arctic into

the Great Lakes during July. There should be a nice stream of convection along the cold front.

That pattern began last last August and just locked in.

 

The 500 mb composite anomalies for August 2013 to July 2014 are going to be heavily skewed towards the large negative anomalies over the great lakes this past winter. Since the height anomalies on the ESRL site are raw departures (not normalized by the seasonal standard deviations), the winter values will usually be more extreme as well due to climatology. The height anomalies for May and June 2014 both show neutral to positive anomalies in the northeast US and southeastern Canada. Therefore, I'm not sure you can say that the pattern of negative height anomalies over the upper plains and great lakes has persisted into this summer.

 

post-869-0-02948900-1404904202_thumb.png

 

post-869-0-78034900-1404904134_thumb.png

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The 500 mb composite anomalies for August 2013 to July 2014 are going to be heavily skewed towards the large negative anomalies over the great lakes this past winter. Since the height anomalies on the ESRL site are raw departures (not normalized by the seasonal standard deviations), the winter values will usually be more extreme as well due to climatology. The height anomalies for May and June 2014 both show neutral to positive anomalies in the northeast US and southeastern Canada. Therefore, I'm not sure you can say that the pattern of negative height anomalies over the upper plains and great lakes has persisted into this summer.

 

attachicon.gifHGR2AQhziJ.png

 

attachicon.gifXO16nRW44z.png

 

When you look at the long term mean, that's where the mean trough location sets up. That doesn't mean that the trough

will be in that exact location every month over the last year. As we saw after April, there was a brief relaxation in May

and the trough was displaced  further west in June. But this month is continuing the long term trend with the lowest

heights back over the Great Lakes again. Also notice in May how the ridge couldn't build strong enough 

into Minnesota where a weakness remained. It's a result of the record breaking ridge that keeps rebuilding

over the NEPAC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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SPC now has us under SEE TEXT. 2% Tor, 5% wind, 5% hail for the whole area:

   ...NEW ENGLAND...   THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL MODESTLY   ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN OROGRAPHIC   CIRCULATIONS BOLSTER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY   CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MLCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG WILL BE   SUPPORTED BY UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS PRECEDING THE   FRONT...WHILE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW S OF THE VORT MAX   FACILITATES CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY   AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL PA TO CNTRL NY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO SMALL   LINE SEGMENTS -- PERHAPS LOCALLY BOWING -- AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AMIDST 30-45-KT OF   H7-H5 FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. A   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELL   STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY NEAR AND   S OF ALBANY WHERE LOCALLY BACKED SFC FLOW MAY ENHANCE EFFECTIVE SRH.   SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT   OUTLOOKS...THOUGH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST LIMITED   TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LIMITED DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT REDUCE   CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER-COVERAGE SVR POTENTIAL.   ...MID-ATLANTIC...   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT   CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK CAPPING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.   HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE   REGION...DEEP SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MODEST AND SUPPORT MULTICELL   CLUSTERS SPREADING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOCALLY DMGG WIND   GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR...THOUGH THE LACK   OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE GREATER SVR   POTENTIAL.
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SPC now has us under SEE TEXT. 2% Tor, 5% wind, 5% hail for the whole area:

  
 ...NEW ENGLAND...

   THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL MODESTLY
   ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS BOLSTER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY
   CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MLCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG WILL BE
   SUPPORTED BY UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS PRECEDING THE
   FRONT...WHILE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW S OF THE VORT MAX
   FACILITATES CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL PA TO CNTRL NY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO SMALL
   LINE SEGMENTS -- PERHAPS LOCALLY BOWING -- AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AMIDST 30-45-KT OF
   H7-H5 FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. A
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY NEAR AND
   S OF ALBANY WHERE LOCALLY BACKED SFC FLOW MAY ENHANCE EFFECTIVE SRH.
   SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
   OUTLOOKS...THOUGH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST LIMITED
   TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LIMITED DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT REDUCE
   CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER-COVERAGE SVR POTENTIAL.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC...
   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK CAPPING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE
   REGION...DEEP SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MODEST AND SUPPORT MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS SPREADING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOCALLY DMGG WIND
   GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR...THOUGH THE LACK
   OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE GREATER SVR
   POTENTIAL.

Yesterday was good for winds west of NYC. I actually was surprised something actually happened yesterday. Today looks fairy good for severe weather as well..... Away from the coast, into the LHV N&W

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Yesterday was good for winds west of NYC. I actually was surprised something actually happened yesterday. Today looks fairy good for severe weather as well..... Away from the coast, into the LHV N&W

Last nights action came thru around 9-10 pm and was loosing it's punch. Today's might come thru a few hours sooner. Could get rowdy up this way in the LHV. We'll see.

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Yesterday was good for winds west of NYC. I actually was surprised something actually happened yesterday. Today looks fairy good for severe weather as well..... Away from the coast, into the LHV N&W

 

We had a 50kt+ wind maxima at 850mb, moving over the area. That the 18z NAM yesterday had picked up on first. Convection died before it bring more of those winds down to the surface over LI:

 

post-187-0-55138400-1404916864_thumb.gif

 

post-187-0-33356300-1404916933_thumb.gif

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We had a 50kt+ wind maxima at 850mb, moving over the area. That the 18z NAM yesterday had picked up on first. Convection died before it bring more of those winds down to the surface over LI:

3zrapNE_850_spd_000.gif

namNE_850_spd_009.gif

Whats more is that some of our more widespread severe days have been when the SPC isnt putting up moderate/high risks that we've seen in the past. That said being where i am as you and everyone else knows here, looking at this stuff and not witnessing any of it pretty much is a real punch to the plums my friend

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We had a 50kt+ wind maxima at 850mb, moving over the area. That the 18z NAM yesterday had picked up on first. Convection died before it bring more of those winds down to the surface over LI:

 

attachicon.gif3zrapNE_850_spd_000.gif

 

attachicon.gifnamNE_850_spd_009.gif

We had some gusty winds here last night from evening on under that jet. The storms as usual died out before reaching us but we did have a period of some strong winds.

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I think today will be a more active T-storm day along the coast. Although thermodynamic parameters are meager, 40kts of bulk effective shear coupled with weak capping should yield fairly widespread garden variety convection, with isolated strong/severe potential.

 

The skew-t for NYC valid 00z this evening is more favorable for convection development and maintenance than last night's sounding. CINH of 51 and CAP value of about 1.5. Sufficient forcing from the mid/upper level energy should aid the process.

 

2i0rnmw.gif

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Large Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued:

 

WOUS64 KWNS 092010
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
415 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

CTC001-003-005-009-100200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/

CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
NEW HAVEN


DCC001-100200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/

DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA


DEC001-003-100200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/

DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT NEW CASTLE


MAC003-011-013-015-100200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/

MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE


MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-510-
100200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/

MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CARROLL CECIL CHARLES
FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD
KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES
QUEEN ANNE'S


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY


NJC001-003-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-
033-035-037-039-041-100200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/

NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON
CAMDEN CUMBERLAND EASTERN UNION
ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN
PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET
SUSSEX WARREN


NYC001-005-021-025-027-039-047-059-061-071-077-079-081-083-085-
087-095-105-111-119-100200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/

NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBANY BRONX COLUMBIA
DELAWARE DUTCHESS GREENE
KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK
ORANGE OTSEGO PUTNAM
QUEENS RENSSELAER RICHMOND
ROCKLAND SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN
ULSTER WESTCHESTER


PAC011-017-025-029-037-043-045-069-071-075-077-079-089-091-095-
101-103-107-113-115-127-131-133-100200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER COLUMBIA DAUPHIN
DELAWARE LACKAWANNA LANCASTER
LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE
MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON
PHILADELPHIA PIKE SCHUYLKILL
SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING YORK


VAC047-059-061-079-099-107-113-137-153-157-177-179-600-683-685-
100200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER
GREENE KING GEORGE LOUDOUN
MADISON ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM
RAPPAHANNOCK SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

FAIRFAX MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK


VTC003-025-100200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/

VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENNINGTON WINDHAM


ANZ335-338-430-530-531-532-533-535-536-542-100200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY

NEW YORK HARBOR

DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE

CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD

PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD

ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...ALY...CTP...BGM...BOX...

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So everyone but Suffolk.... as usual lol

If someone in the SPC issues a severe thunderstorm watch or warning for suffolk county that person has big coconuts. Odds of us getting a true severe storm in suffolk county are as good as me hitting the powerball :lol:

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I'm still surprised Nassau is even included in this...we'll have to see if any severe storms can make it down here. (BTW, when I say severe, I just mean rain, thunder and lightning. We'll be lucky if we even get any rain.) 

http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=severe+thunderstorm+warning

 

FYI - Though heavy rain/frequent thunder/lightning are quite dangerous, none of those apply to what constitutes a severe thunderstorm.

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http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=severe+thunderstorm+warning

 

FYI - Though heavy rain/frequent thunder/lightning are quite dangerous, none of those apply to what constitutes a severe thunderstorm.

Oh I know that....I was just kinda using the word severe to mean something it's not...What I should of said was that I doubt Nassau County will even get into any heavy rain/thunder/lightning. At this point, since I never even get or witness severe weather down here, I kind of call heavy rain/thunder/lightning severe weather. It makes me feel better....But that's my problem. Sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused.  :)

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Oh I know that....I was just kinda using the word severe to mean something it's not...What I should of said was that I doubt Nassau County will even get into any heavy rain/thunder/lightning. At this point, since I never even get or witness severe weather down here, I kind of call heavy rain/thunder/lightning severe weather. It makes me feel better....But that's my problem. Sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. :)

Living on LI especially by me in SW suffolk our standards for a severe storm are VERY LOW. That said a cell popped up in SW nassua but is already going poof, the LI storm shield holds strong!

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lets hope not too impressive....I'm going away camping in the Catskills region....all next week! That same area that I'm going to has already had 2 tornado warnings in less than 7 days (Sullivan County).

This year has been impressive already...compared to the one flash of lightning I saw all of last year

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