snywx Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 .86" yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Drove home from Monmouth medical around 10 pm there were trees and branches everywhere I took a pic of cross road in colts neck there were trees and branches down the entire length of the road . Power was out and came back around 1 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 It's going to be impressive next week to see the the polar vortex drop down from the Arctic into the Great Lakes during July. There should be a nice stream of convection along the cold front. That pattern began last last August and just locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 It's going to be impressive next week to see the the polar vortex drop down from the Arctic into the Great Lakes during July. There should be a nice stream of convection along the cold front. That pattern began last last August and just locked in. The 500 mb composite anomalies for August 2013 to July 2014 are going to be heavily skewed towards the large negative anomalies over the great lakes this past winter. Since the height anomalies on the ESRL site are raw departures (not normalized by the seasonal standard deviations), the winter values will usually be more extreme as well due to climatology. The height anomalies for May and June 2014 both show neutral to positive anomalies in the northeast US and southeastern Canada. Therefore, I'm not sure you can say that the pattern of negative height anomalies over the upper plains and great lakes has persisted into this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 The 500 mb composite anomalies for August 2013 to July 2014 are going to be heavily skewed towards the large negative anomalies over the great lakes this past winter. Since the height anomalies on the ESRL site are raw departures (not normalized by the seasonal standard deviations), the winter values will usually be more extreme as well due to climatology. The height anomalies for May and June 2014 both show neutral to positive anomalies in the northeast US and southeastern Canada. Therefore, I'm not sure you can say that the pattern of negative height anomalies over the upper plains and great lakes has persisted into this summer. HGR2AQhziJ.png XO16nRW44z.png When you look at the long term mean, that's where the mean trough location sets up. That doesn't mean that the trough will be in that exact location every month over the last year. As we saw after April, there was a brief relaxation in May and the trough was displaced further west in June. But this month is continuing the long term trend with the lowest heights back over the Great Lakes again. Also notice in May how the ridge couldn't build strong enough into Minnesota where a weakness remained. It's a result of the record breaking ridge that keeps rebuilding over the NEPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 SPC now has us under SEE TEXT. 2% Tor, 5% wind, 5% hail for the whole area: ...NEW ENGLAND... THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL MODESTLY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS BOLSTER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MLCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTED BY UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS PRECEDING THE FRONT...WHILE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW S OF THE VORT MAX FACILITATES CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL PA TO CNTRL NY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINE SEGMENTS -- PERHAPS LOCALLY BOWING -- AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AMIDST 30-45-KT OF H7-H5 FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY NEAR AND S OF ALBANY WHERE LOCALLY BACKED SFC FLOW MAY ENHANCE EFFECTIVE SRH. SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS...THOUGH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LIMITED DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER-COVERAGE SVR POTENTIAL. ...MID-ATLANTIC... STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK CAPPING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE REGION...DEEP SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MODEST AND SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS SPREADING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR...THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE GREATER SVR POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 SPC now has us under SEE TEXT. 2% Tor, 5% wind, 5% hail for the whole area: ...NEW ENGLAND... THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL MODESTLY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS BOLSTER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MLCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTED BY UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS PRECEDING THE FRONT...WHILE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW S OF THE VORT MAX FACILITATES CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL PA TO CNTRL NY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINE SEGMENTS -- PERHAPS LOCALLY BOWING -- AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AMIDST 30-45-KT OF H7-H5 FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY NEAR AND S OF ALBANY WHERE LOCALLY BACKED SFC FLOW MAY ENHANCE EFFECTIVE SRH. SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS...THOUGH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LIMITED DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER-COVERAGE SVR POTENTIAL. ...MID-ATLANTIC... STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK CAPPING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE REGION...DEEP SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MODEST AND SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS SPREADING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR...THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE GREATER SVR POTENTIAL. Yesterday was good for winds west of NYC. I actually was surprised something actually happened yesterday. Today looks fairy good for severe weather as well..... Away from the coast, into the LHV N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Yesterday was good for winds west of NYC. I actually was surprised something actually happened yesterday. Today looks fairy good for severe weather as well..... Away from the coast, into the LHV N&W Last nights action came thru around 9-10 pm and was loosing it's punch. Today's might come thru a few hours sooner. Could get rowdy up this way in the LHV. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Yesterday was good for winds west of NYC. I actually was surprised something actually happened yesterday. Today looks fairy good for severe weather as well..... Away from the coast, into the LHV N&W We had a 50kt+ wind maxima at 850mb, moving over the area. That the 18z NAM yesterday had picked up on first. Convection died before it bring more of those winds down to the surface over LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 We had a 50kt+ wind maxima at 850mb, moving over the area. That the 18z NAM yesterday had picked up on first. Convection died before it bring more of those winds down to the surface over LI: 3zrapNE_850_spd_000.gif namNE_850_spd_009.gif Whats more is that some of our more widespread severe days have been when the SPC isnt putting up moderate/high risks that we've seen in the past. That said being where i am as you and everyone else knows here, looking at this stuff and not witnessing any of it pretty much is a real punch to the plums my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 We had a 50kt+ wind maxima at 850mb, moving over the area. That the 18z NAM yesterday had picked up on first. Convection died before it bring more of those winds down to the surface over LI: 3zrapNE_850_spd_000.gif namNE_850_spd_009.gif We had some gusty winds here last night from evening on under that jet. The storms as usual died out before reaching us but we did have a period of some strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 I think today will be a more active T-storm day along the coast. Although thermodynamic parameters are meager, 40kts of bulk effective shear coupled with weak capping should yield fairly widespread garden variety convection, with isolated strong/severe potential. The skew-t for NYC valid 00z this evening is more favorable for convection development and maintenance than last night's sounding. CINH of 51 and CAP value of about 1.5. Sufficient forcing from the mid/upper level energy should aid the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Cells are starting to fire in E. PA, anddddd we're off! Lets see who can cash in on todays severe threat. Ill be watching from the sidelines as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Western areas are upgraded to a SLGT risk once again today. 15% Wind, 2% Tornado, and 5% Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Thus far just your scattered garden variety thunderstorms across E.PA this afternoon should see a nice uptick in storms as we get closer to 3-4 pm today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9, 2014 Author Share Posted July 9, 2014 2PM Roundup TEB: 90 NYC: 86LDJ: 89EWR: 89LGA: 87 JFK: 83 ISP: 83New Brnswck: 87 BLM: 84TTN: 84ACY: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 The HRRR shows t-storms popping up over NYC metro with instability with shear increasing this evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 The HRRR shows t-storms popping up over NYC metro with instability with shear increasing this evening: hrrrNEsf_con_sbcape_006.gif hrrrNEsf_sfc_radar_006.gif It has an even more potent line later on (a little far out though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9, 2014 Author Share Posted July 9, 2014 3PM Roundup TEB: 90 NYC: 85LDJ: 90EWR: 88LGA: 87 JFK: 82 ISP: 84New Brnswck: 89 BLM: 88TTN: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Large Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued: WOUS64 KWNS 092010WOU7BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 407NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK415 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSCTC001-003-005-009-100200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/CT. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED AREFAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELDNEW HAVENDCC001-100200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/DC. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED AREDISTRICT OF COLUMBIADEC001-003-100200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/DE. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED AREKENT NEW CASTLEMAC003-011-013-015-100200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/MA. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDENHAMPSHIREMDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-510-100200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/MD. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED AREANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERTCARROLL CECIL CHARLESFREDERICK HARFORD HOWARDKENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGESQUEEN ANNE'SMARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED AREBALTIMORE CITYNJC001-003-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039-041-100200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/NJ. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED AREATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTONCAMDEN CUMBERLAND EASTERN UNIONESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSONHUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEXMONMOUTH MORRIS OCEANPASSAIC SALEM SOMERSETSUSSEX WARRENNYC001-005-021-025-027-039-047-059-061-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-095-105-111-119-100200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/NY. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED AREALBANY BRONX COLUMBIADELAWARE DUTCHESS GREENEKINGS NASSAU NEW YORKORANGE OTSEGO PUTNAMQUEENS RENSSELAER RICHMONDROCKLAND SCHOHARIE SULLIVANULSTER WESTCHESTERPAC011-017-025-029-037-043-045-069-071-075-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-107-113-115-127-131-133-100200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/PA. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBERKS BUCKS CARBONCHESTER COLUMBIA DAUPHINDELAWARE LACKAWANNA LANCASTERLEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNEMONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTONPHILADELPHIA PIKE SCHUYLKILLSULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA WAYNEWYOMING YORKVAC047-059-061-079-099-107-113-137-153-157-177-179-600-683-685-100200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/VA. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIERGREENE KING GEORGE LOUDOUNMADISON ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAMRAPPAHANNOCK SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORDVIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED AREFAIRFAX MANASSAS MANASSAS PARKVTC003-025-100200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/VT. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBENNINGTON WINDHAMANZ335-338-430-530-531-532-533-535-536-542-100200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0407.140709T2015Z-140710T0200Z/CW. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARELONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NYNEW YORK HARBORDELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DECHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MDCHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MDCHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MDCHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MDTIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MDTIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MDPATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MDATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...ALY...CTP...BGM...BOX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 So everyone but Suffolk.... as usual lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 So everyone but Suffolk.... as usual lol I can count on one hand the number of by definition severe storms I've seen growing up where I did. So it's probably warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 So everyone but Suffolk.... as usual lol I'm still surprised Nassau is even included in this...we'll have to see if any severe storms can make it down here. (BTW, when I say severe, I just mean rain, thunder and lightning. We'll be lucky if we even get any rain.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 So everyone but Suffolk.... as usual lol If someone in the SPC issues a severe thunderstorm watch or warning for suffolk county that person has big coconuts. Odds of us getting a true severe storm in suffolk county are as good as me hitting the powerball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 I'm still surprised Nassau is even included in this...we'll have to see if any severe storms can make it down here. (BTW, when I say severe, I just mean rain, thunder and lightning. We'll be lucky if we even get any rain.) http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=severe+thunderstorm+warning FYI - Though heavy rain/frequent thunder/lightning are quite dangerous, none of those apply to what constitutes a severe thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=severe+thunderstorm+warning FYI - Though heavy rain/frequent thunder/lightning are quite dangerous, none of those apply to what constitutes a severe thunderstorm. Oh I know that....I was just kinda using the word severe to mean something it's not...What I should of said was that I doubt Nassau County will even get into any heavy rain/thunder/lightning. At this point, since I never even get or witness severe weather down here, I kind of call heavy rain/thunder/lightning severe weather. It makes me feel better....But that's my problem. Sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Oh I know that....I was just kinda using the word severe to mean something it's not...What I should of said was that I doubt Nassau County will even get into any heavy rain/thunder/lightning. At this point, since I never even get or witness severe weather down here, I kind of call heavy rain/thunder/lightning severe weather. It makes me feel better....But that's my problem. Sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. Living on LI especially by me in SW suffolk our standards for a severe storm are VERY LOW. That said a cell popped up in SW nassua but is already going poof, the LI storm shield holds strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 monday and tuesday look like fairly impressive threats for this region. especially tuesday on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 monday and tuesday look like fairly impressive threats for this region. especially tuesday on the euro lets hope not too impressive....I'm going away camping in the Catskills region....all next week! That same area that I'm going to has already had 2 tornado warnings in less than 7 days (Sullivan County). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 lets hope not too impressive....I'm going away camping in the Catskills region....all next week! That same area that I'm going to has already had 2 tornado warnings in less than 7 days (Sullivan County). This year has been impressive already...compared to the one flash of lightning I saw all of last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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