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SACRUS

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Dewpoints weren't too bad and there was a breeze so overall wasn't too bad. Tomorrow and Wednesday I don't think we'll be as lucky

Boy, speaking of "a breeze", I was down at Jones Beach earlier and I tell you the wind was so gusty, you almost blew away! I'm not kidding. It wasn't your typical sea breeze, it was like a tropical storm force wind. And once I drove back inland to Hicksville, the wind was nowhere to be found. Not even a slight breeze here. It just goes to show you how parts of Long Island are very different (weather-wise) than other parts.

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Lol falling apart

It's South Shore drought season, surprised? The grass here is getting browner by the day, and we haven't had any real soaking rain in over a month (Arthur was maybe a half inch here). Unless a synoptic system of some kind or training storms come at our area in some way it'll be the same story. When the synoptic systems come back in Sept/Oct, we'll be back in the excitement.

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Spending the day in long beach. Hopefully won't get sandblasted by the southerly winds today. Should keep temps down tho, right?

 

The Ambrose Jet should crank up again this afternoon with southerly winds there probably in the 20-35 mph range

peaking around 4 to 6 PM. The rip current risk looks high.

 

https://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_144401.htm

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ179&warncounty=NYC059&firewxzone=NYZ179&local_place1=Roosevelt%20NY&product1=Rip+Current+Statement&lat=40.67752&lon=-73.58562#.U7v08yhiF1M

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This looks like a classic situation where convection mostly dissipates upon reaching the immediate NYC metro area. Parameters are unimpressive for us while much of PA and NY State should have an active afternoon/evening.

 

Looking at the skew-t for NYC valid 00z this evening, the CAP value is 2.4 which is too strong for convective maintenance, and the CINH value of 112 indicates negative buoyancy. CAPE and LI's are meager, under 1000 J/KG and > -3 respectively.

 

So at least through the first part of the evening, it looks storm-free to me for coastal areas. With diurnal heating vanishing post 00z, I can see a similar scenario to last night where we have convection falling apart just to the west of NYC. Maybe we (the coast) gets lucky tonight, but as I said in the other thread, I think many of us may be waiting until early next week for significant rains. The ECMWF is fairly dry through the next several days.

 

t84z94.gif

 

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This looks like a classic situation where convection mostly dissipates upon reaching the immediate NYC metro area. Parameters are unimpressive for us while much of PA and NY State should have an active afternoon/evening.

 

Looking at the skew-t for NYC valid 00z this evening, the CAP value is 2.4 which is too strong for convective maintenance, and the CINH value of 112 indicates negative buoyancy. CAPE and LI's are meager, under 1000 J/KG and > -3 respectively.

 

So at least through the first part of the evening, it looks storm-free to me for coastal areas. With diurnal heating vanishing post 00z, I can see a similar scenario to last night where we have convection falling apart just to the west of NYC. Maybe we (the coast) gets lucky tonight, but as I said in the other thread, I think many of us may be waiting until early next week for significant rains. The ECMWF is fairly dry through the next several days.

 

t84z94.gif

 

 

 

I was surprised the storms managed to hold together last night. I can't remember the last storm I had after midnight. It weakened yes but usually they completely fall apart and we're lucky to get a sprinkle or two

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I was surprised the storms managed to hold together last night. I can't remember the last storm I had after midnight. It weakened yes but usually they completely fall apart and we're lucky to get a sprinkle or two

 

 

I saw some lightning flashes around midnight, but that was all we got out of it here. Interior NNJ has been a much different story precip wise over the past couple weeks. With S/SSWLY flow in the low levels, the pattern has been poor for T-storm maintenance to the coast.

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11am temps

 

NYC 83

LGA 86

JFK 86

EWR 88

 

T-storms/clouds hold off late with WSW-SW winds. EWR probably see 95+

 

Not sure it looks like clouds may be an issue for mid 90s by early afternoon. 

 

 

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I wonder if the criteria for what is and is not severe is too high or if they should have severe thunderstorm advisories alla Winter Weather Advisory/Winter Storm Warning.

Yes severe thunderstorm warning criteria is almost never met in terms of large hail or damaging wind gusts however they can still be very dangerous thunderstorms due to flooding and constant lightning like last week.

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