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July 2014


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Guest Pamela

You can knock atleast 10 degrees off that once the seabreeze kicks in along the coast and LI

 

Wednesday & Thursday (7/2 & 7/3) were extremely oppressive days in the Port Jefferson area...I did not get an outdoor daytime high...but the temp on the 2nd floor of my house reached 91 F both afternoons with the a/c not working properly.

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Wednesday & Thursday (7/2 & 7/3) were extremely oppressive days in the Port Jefferson area...I did not get an outdoor daytime high...but the temp on the 2nd floor of my house reached 91 F both afternoons with the a/c not working properly.

North shore is a different animal then here my friend im literally 5 minutes from ocean as i can see the robert moses causeway entrance ramp from my block
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These hot days still look like they will remain transient as the heat ridge continues

to migrate back to the West over the major drought areas. It looks like the warm spots

will reach low to mid 90s again early this week then fall back to the 80's for highs

after a front moves through.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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These hot days still look like they will remain transient as the heat ridge continues

to migrate back to the West over the major drought areas. It looks like the warm spots

will reach low to mid 90s again early this week then fall back to the 80's for highs

after a front moves through.

 

attachicon.gifA.gif

 

attachicon.gifB.gif

 

attachicon.gif20140701_usdm_home.png

It's basically the same old pattern we have been in for a few months now as another push of Canadian air enters the region after a few above normal days 

 

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=4e

 

There are indications on GFS that the pattern does begin to change mid- month to allow the heat ridge out west to expand east without interruption from the north  and we begin to see extended normal to above normal temps BUT the question is if this is a correct solution ?

 

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=8e

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It's basically the same old pattern we have been in for a few months now as another push of Canadian air enters the region after a few above normal days 

 

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=4e

 

There are indications on GFS that the pattern does begin to change mid- month to allow the heat ridge out west to expand east without interruption from the north  and we begin to see extended normal to above normal temps BUT the question is if this is a correct solution ?

 

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=8e

 

My guess is that the heat ridge wont be able to expand to the point that we saw from July 2010-2013. The trough

over the Great Lakes to start this July is different from the other recent years. So I think that we see more of the

same this month and Newark stays below 100 degrees. That trough has been stuck over the Great Lakes and

Midwest since last August. The 12 July days that Newark reached 100 since 2010 featured a very strong

ridge building over the Great Lakes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Newark July 100 day 500 mb composite since 2010 consisting of 12 days

 

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Don`t get use to the heat . Once past Friday the trough`s back into the lakes and by Day 10, The ridge returns into the GOA . If we don`t get the Ridge to retrograde the trough may stick around in the East . 

post-7472-0-92166100-1404749639_thumb.pn

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Don`t get use to the heat . Once past Friday the trough`s back into the lakes and by Day 10, The ridge returns into the GOA . If we don`t get the Ridge to retrograde the trough may stick around in the East .

that's exactly what happens over the atlantic and the negative temp departures never make it here

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that's exactly what happens over the atlantic and the negative temp departures never make it here

I would be more comfortable if the ridge didn`t wedge its nose into the GOA . Need the PNA to break down so the trough doesn`t get stuck in the lakes and into the E .  

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that's exactly what happens over the atlantic and the negative temp departures never make it here

 

Pending on the trough position but similar to this week, there is still heat building and expanding underneath the eastern sideof the trough/western edge of the WAR and up the coast.  Most guidance builds heat in quick surges beyod the 9th.  With the Next surge by Sunday.  There are some hints the WAR really builds west in the 18th time range.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1294

< Previous MD

mcd1294.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0110 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...CNTRL AND NRN PA...SRN AND CNTRL NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071810Z - 071915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OH...CNTRL AND NRN PA INTO SRN AND CNTRL NY.

THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THIS

CORRIDOR AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW

IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS PA AND

SRN NY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA

WHERE SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FROM NEAR BUFFALO

NY SWWD TO COLUMBUS OH AND EWD ACROSS NRN PA AND SRN NY. SHORT-TERM

HRRR FORECASTS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN

COVERAGE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS

AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW 0-6 KM

SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES

ABOVE 1 KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS INSTABILITY

AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF A

BOWING LINE-SEGMENT AND COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE...THEN THE WIND

DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE

MCD AREA.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2014

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40378016 40797791 41097514 41317366 42007333 42687353

43137448 42847737 42327964 41528117 41008158 40498132

40378016

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maybe it's time for the NWS to investigate NYC's thermometer. It seems like there's a power up in the sky that doesn't want NYC to break 90 (although we did only once)  :lol: .

 

We've been through this its not necesssarily the equipment as much as location.  Ultimately its not the best reference for the NYC metro area from a media and news perspective.  Anyway.  Looks like 89 for the 5th time this season.

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Pending on the trough position but similar to this week, there is still heat building and expanding underneath the eastern sideof the trough/western edge of the WAR and up the coast.  Most guidance builds heat in quick surges beyod the 9th.  With the Next surge by Sunday.  There are some hints the WAR really builds west in the 18th time range.

Please, God no. I have a daytrip on the 19th to NYC. Last year around the same time, on such a trip, it was upper 90s under sun most of the day. :frostymelt:

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