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SACRUS

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I don't think the same areas will get the severe weather later today and tonight and that the focus of the most severe conditions will be a little further south and east towards the coast especially tonight - some areas will probably see the 2 inch plus downpours in a short period ( less then 2 hours ) as I experienced in north central

 NJ yesterday as PWATS suggesting this are in place .

 

Have to just wait and see how this all plays out later watching the radar

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

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I was seeing a certain poster saying today would be a washout...im going to get a full day of cutting in I thought for sure I would be lucky to get a half day in

Getting all mine done....beautiful summer day. That one poster has lost all merit with me

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I don't think the same areas will get the severe weather later today and tonight and that the focus of the most severe conditions will be a little further south and east towards the coast especially tonight - some areas will probably see the 2 inch plus downpours in a short period ( less then 2 hours ) as I experienced in north central

NJ yesterday as PWATS suggesting this are in place .

Have to just wait and see how this all plays out later watching the radar

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

We will see about the severe storms along the coast tonight my friend.....

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We will see about the severe storms along the coast tonight my friend.....

If you miss all of these over the next day or 2 , then you better pack it in . The area is in a "good " spot for T storms .

There were some good shows last nite for many .

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mcd1262.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NJ...NY...CT...MA...VT...NH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 031730Z - 032000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON FROM THE DELAWARE AND HUDSON VALLEYS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

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If you miss all of these over the next day or 2 , then you better pack it in . The area is in a "good " spot for T storms .

There were some good shows last nite for many .

I didnt miss them per say yesterday, just when they got to me the lightning, thunder and rainfall was sub par or atleast ALOT less dramatic then what others said they experienced. Like i said even today im more than skeptical even if SPC upgraded me to high risk

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NJC041-031831-
/O.CAN.KPHI.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140703T1830Z/
WARREN NJ-
221 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

NJC041-031831-
/O.CAN.KPHI.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140703T1830Z/
WARREN NJ-
221 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW
JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4085 7482 4081 7508 4085 7506 4086 7505
4090 7506 4092 7504 4098 7491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 245DEG 21KT 4089 7496

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Currently 90.

Official heat wave here. 3rd consecutive day of 90+. 5th day on the season.

I don't want to downplay the current heat but 90 degrees just doesn't sound impressive for July. It's not even that hot. What's making it horrible are the sky high dew points and weaker winds.

I really don't think they should use 90 as the bottom end of heatwave criteria. But it's been this way for so long so obviously this won't change.

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90 in New Brunswick, making this an official heat wave here as well.

 

I agree with others though who have said 90 is too low of a benchmark to define a heat wave.  Our average high this time of year is 85 so we're only 5 degrees above normal.  That's nothing significant at all.  95 would be a better cutoff.

 

Really impressive SBCAPE now across the area...3000+ J/kg throughout with 4000+ in south Jersey.  And 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 kt back in central and western PA.  Fun night is ahead.

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