REDMK6GLI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Already storms popping up in PA/NJ this morning. Looks like those that jackpotted yesterday may do the same again today. Not expecting much here like last night again but those in NYC on west looked primed for some action yet again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 What was the main reason of lack of wind with these storms? Lightning was incredibleStrong CAPE extending pretty far up. The storms seemed to be aligned in a west to east fashion with storm motion NW to SE. That may have played a roll. Also shear wasn't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Rgem fail with the forecasted rain all night last night...sun is out here now also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Rgem fail with the forecasted rain all night last night...sun is out here now alsoStorms are already firing. We needed a few hours of sun to destabilize some and we got it. I'm sure by this afternoon activity will be fairly widespread again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Nasty cell headed towards Parsippany area on radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Storms are already firing. We needed a few hours of sun to destabilize some and we got it. I'm sure by this afternoon activity will be fairly widespread again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Quite the humid day again. Plenty of showers and storms popping up all day should limit reaching 90 in many locations. Those that can remain mostly dry and get enough sun may reach 90 for the seasons first heat wave, Otherwise round 2 of the frontal storms. tracking the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 10AM Roundup: TEB: 81 NYC: 79 EWR: 81 LGA: 81 JFK: 80 ISP: 84 New Brunswick: 82 BLM: 81 TTN: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 More sun than I would have thought so far. Still think 90s will be limited but it wil be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Quite the humid day again. Plenty of showers and storms popping up all day should limit reaching 90 in many locations. Those that can remain mostly dry and get enough sun may reach 90 for the seasons first heat wave, Otherwise round 2 of the frontal storms. tracking the front Last frame flips to stationary front. Looks like it's stalling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Thursday is def turning out better then I thought...all day wash out canceled. Thank god...mowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 As a couple others have noted earlier in the thread, the primary reason for the copious lightning with last night's storms was the high/extreme deep layer CAPE environment. Strong updrafts and instability yielded high vertical extension to these clouds, setting up a conducive charge field. This page is an informative one about CAPE: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/305/ T-storms in Florida, and tropical regions tend to contain a lot of lightning, and not surprisingly, usually these are high CAPE environments. Our strong wind producing T-storms are more related to the cooling of the air with height (lapse rates) and wind shear, both of which were rather unimpressive yesterday. The low shear environment also meant slow moving T-storms. The high PWATS and extreme moisture content of the BL meant excessive rainfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Thursday is def turning out better then I thought...all day wash out canceled. Thank god...mowing Very rare to have all day washouts during convection season. 1-3" of rain on a July day can easily fall in a few hours while that much rain in March/April usually dampens the entire day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 SLGT risk for today has been expanded S and E from where it was yesterday to include more of SE NJ, LI and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Thanks everyone for the wind explanation of yesterday's storms. I knew hail would be limited. Shear looks a little better today, so hoping we can get some good storms with this morning sun helping the heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The heat is worse than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The heat is worse than yesterday. it is ? nobody is close to 90 as of 11 a.m and most are below 90 heat index - also going to be interesting if we get many storms this afternoon in the metro radar is quiet now - suspect more activity this evening and maybe not as much severe as yesterday http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Mets bust...I bet last nights deluge will be worse than tonights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Mets bust...I bet last nights deluge will be worse than tonights Awful post. It's 1130am and convection is already starting to fire in W PA and MD. Why don't you give it some time? The sun is out and instability parameters are on the rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 heat returns after the weekend on the euro ens mean with a front stalling/washing out along the coast later in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Awful post. It's 1130am and convection is already starting to fire in W PA and MD. Why don't you give it some time? The sun is out and instability parameters are on the rise. I agree. SPC has the best chance for thunderstorms between 4 PM and 8 PM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 heat returns after the weekend on the euro ens mean with a front stalling/washing out along the coast later in the week Despite more of a trough into the northeast heights aren't that low and the sw flow looks to bring heat mon- wed (pending on front) then again later next week. 850's forecast 18c - 22c on the ecm by tue pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 BLM at 88F already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Clouds really building in now but quite hot where the sun is out especially in along the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Very rare to have all day washouts during convection season. 1-3" of rain on a July day can easily fall in a few hours while that much rain in March/April usually dampens the entire day. Thanks! Not to name names but some where saying on this board rain all night wed night and main show on Thursday, being a washout. It nice to salvage the day..half way home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wow people making a run at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Mets bust...I bet last nights deluge will be worse than tonights Its 12:30. Spiking the football a little early perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Upton backing off a little as all the ingredients are not in place as they were yesterday http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 that's only for this morning/afternoon. the best ingredients come together tonight. from mt holly: TIMING...WHILE AN ABOVE INGREDIENT OR TWO ARE IN PLACE AT SOME TIME TEMPORALLY WITHIN THE WATCH, THEY ALL COME TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DURING THIS TIME, THE PW'S PEAK AROUND 2.00" AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE H25 JET IS OVERHEAD. PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENTS (PRE)...AT THE MOMENT, THE GENERAL QPF CONSENSUS FOR THE REGION IS BETWEEN ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL, FALLING THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, IS IT KNOWN THAT NWP MODELS CAN UNDERESTIMATE HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IN GENERAL AND PARTICULARLY WITH PRE. DO WE HAVE PRE INGREDIENTS? YES WE DO. THIS INCLUDES THE RIGHT REAR UPPER JET, BEING AHEAD OF THE MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS AT THE MID-LEVELS, AND NEAR OR JUST WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE CLIMATOLOGY OF PRE'S, MORE OF THEM ARE TO THE LEFT OF A CYCLONE TRACK. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD RISK AS ONE TO THREE INCHES FELL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA. THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM THIS PRIOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RUNOFF. ALL OF THE ABOVE, AT LEAST AT THIS TIME, SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER OVER EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND NJ/DELMARVA TNGT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Thermodynamic parameters are through the roof already from NYC southwestward. 3,500 J/KG of surface based CAPE over SNJ and 2,500 J/KG of MLCAPE. LI's into the -8 territory. Best bulk effective shear is still back west over PA, which is where convection is initiating as we speak. I'm at 89F and mostly sunny here. Should secure a heat wave at my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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