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July 2014


SACRUS

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Quite the humid day again.  Plenty of showers and storms popping up all day should limit reaching 90 in many locations.  Those that can remain mostly dry and get enough sun may reach 90 for the seasons first heat wave,  Otherwise round 2 of the frontal storms.

 

tracking the front

 

2xne_sf_anim.gif

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Quite the humid day again. Plenty of showers and storms popping up all day should limit reaching 90 in many locations. Those that can remain mostly dry and get enough sun may reach 90 for the seasons first heat wave, Otherwise round 2 of the frontal storms.

tracking the front

2xne_sf_anim.gif

Last frame flips to stationary front. Looks like it's stalling.
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As a couple others have noted earlier in the thread, the primary reason for the copious lightning with last night's storms was the high/extreme deep layer CAPE environment. Strong updrafts and instability yielded high vertical extension to these clouds, setting up a conducive charge field.

 

This page is an informative one about CAPE:

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/305/

 

 

T-storms in Florida, and tropical regions tend to contain a lot of lightning, and not surprisingly, usually these are high CAPE environments.

 

Our strong wind producing T-storms are more related to the cooling of the air with height (lapse rates) and wind shear, both of which were rather unimpressive yesterday. The low shear environment also meant slow moving T-storms. The high PWATS and extreme moisture content of the BL meant excessive rainfall rates.

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Thursday is def turning out better then I thought...all day wash out canceled. Thank god...mowing

 

Very rare to have all day washouts during convection season. 

 

1-3" of rain on a July day can easily fall in a few hours while that much rain in March/April usually dampens the entire day.

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The heat is worse than yesterday.

it is ? nobody is close to 90 as of 11 a.m and most are below 90 heat index - also going to be interesting if we get many storms this afternoon in the metro radar is quiet now - suspect more activity this evening and maybe not as much severe as yesterday

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

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Mets bust...I bet last nights deluge will be worse than tonights

Awful post. It's 1130am and convection is already starting to fire in W PA and MD. Why don't you give it some time? The sun is out and instability parameters are on the rise.

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heat returns after the weekend on the euro ens mean with a front stalling/washing out along the coast later in the week

 

 

Despite more of a trough into the northeast heights aren't that low and  the sw flow looks to bring heat mon- wed (pending on front) then again later next week.  850's forecast 18c - 22c on the ecm by tue pm.

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Very rare to have all day washouts during convection season.

1-3" of rain on a July day can easily fall in a few hours while that much rain in March/April usually dampens the entire day.

Thanks! Not to name names but some where saying on this board rain all night wed night and main show on Thursday, being a washout. It nice to salvage the day..half way home

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that's only for this morning/afternoon. the best ingredients come together tonight. from mt holly:

TIMING...WHILE AN ABOVE INGREDIENT OR TWO ARE IN PLACE AT SOME  TIME TEMPORALLY WITHIN THE WATCH, THEY ALL COME TOGETHER THIS   AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DURING THIS TIME, THE PW'S PEAK AROUND 2.00"   AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE H25 JET IS OVERHEAD.    PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENTS (PRE)...AT THE MOMENT, THE GENERAL  QPF CONSENSUS FOR THE REGION IS BETWEEN ONE TO THREE INCHES OF   RAINFALL, FALLING THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, IS   IT KNOWN THAT NWP MODELS CAN UNDERESTIMATE HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED   WITH CONVECTION IN GENERAL AND PARTICULARLY WITH PRE.    DO WE HAVE PRE INGREDIENTS? YES WE DO. THIS INCLUDES THE RIGHT  REAR UPPER JET, BEING AHEAD OF THE MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS AT  THE MID-LEVELS, AND NEAR OR JUST WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE  AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE CLIMATOLOGY OF PRE'S, MORE  OF THEM ARE TO THE LEFT OF A CYCLONE TRACK.    ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED FLASH   FLOOD RISK AS ONE TO THREE INCHES FELL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY   AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA. THE GROUND IS SATURATED   FROM THIS PRIOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL   RUNOFF.      ALL OF THE ABOVE, AT LEAST AT THIS TIME, SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER   OVER EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND NJ/DELMARVA TNGT. 
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Thermodynamic parameters are through the roof already from NYC southwestward. 3,500 J/KG of surface based CAPE over SNJ and 2,500 J/KG of MLCAPE. LI's into the -8 territory.

 

Best bulk effective shear is still back west over PA, which is where convection is initiating as we speak.

 

I'm at 89F and mostly sunny here. Should secure a heat wave at my location.

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