Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 In case anyone was wondering, and I doubt you were, the 0z GFS came back east. It wasn't as far east as the 12z run but it was a substantial shift from 18z. Which makes sense because GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah its still a hit but not as drastic as the 18Z, most models bring it close to Cape Fear then turn it almost ENE to run it along or just off the beaches to Hatteras. If the Euro is still over Hatteras or moves west any then I will start to think it more likely to hit than miss......A later turn or a turn not as sharp as modeled will bring it in over eastern NC so there is still reason for folks in NC and even the Virginia tidewater to be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Skip Waters the local met in New Bern was just on live at 2 am and gave a nice long update and he thinks it will be "well" west of the current track and he said he felt Swansboro and then up to Aurora/Belhaven then NE out over Nags Head was a more realistic track based on the model consensus and some of their in house stuff.....we shall see it ole Skippy is right. The one saving grace besides it being a Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 is the speed this thing should get it in and out with peak conditions lasting less than 6 hrs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Is it still heading north or did it start the turn? Good ole skip may be right haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Is it still heading north or did it start the turn? Good ole skip may be right haha Yeah more or less, Skip was upset or at least thats the vibe I got from him that the NHC was still on what he called the far east side of model guidance and that his more realistic track and in house guidance told him this thing would be more like Onslow Bay coming in Bogue inlet a la Bertha or Irene.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah onslow bay that's me haha but even though the pressure is remaining steady right now that tells us its still gradually strengething because the storms size has definitely increased and its becoming more symmetrical, if it continues its previous day patterns this is when its convection would dissipate and reform at daybreak, I say if it maintains this look then watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Also watching old loops of Bertha it kind of had the same look Arthur does now it looked like a big convective blob up until about myrtle beach and rapidly organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Also watching old loops of Bertha it kind of had the same look Arthur does now it looked like a big convective blob up until about myrtle beach and rapidly organized. Betha was my first real hurricane.......Winds gusted into the 80's here in Greenville for a few hrs trees down everywhere, no power for 2-3 days. hard to believe that from 1972 ( year I was born) to 1996 there where no real hurricanes that came in the eastern NC. We have made up for it since then though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Hurricane Center now calling this Hurricane Arthur with wind speeds of 75 mph and a pressure of 985mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Bands of Arthur now affecting Oak Island (where I am this week). Heavy rain very high winds. I estimate winds of 40 mph right now. It sounds very eerie as the winds blow across the house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 With the expanding left side of the circulation you and I are definitely going to be in for rocky weather. I'm about a hour northeast of you on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 With the expanding left side of the circulation you and I are definitely going to be in for rocky weather. I'm about a hour northeast of you on the coast. Yes. Also I am noticing that the center appears to be trying to move a little eastward on the radar. It may be about ready to start moving northeast quickly at any time. The heaviest rain was not expected till around midday, so the storm is ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Feeder band on the far outdide periphery of Arthur now inland to Union County east of Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah we'll have to see if its the beginning of a trend or because of the big blow up of thunderstorms on the east side that occurred. Edit: Jordan you guys are getting hammered by that squall haha, bummed I gotta go to work now but maybe chase when I get off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Still a ton of lightning in the eye wall this morning. I am looking for a stronger storm at the 8am update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY... FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Strengthening storm. New cone looks dangerous.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Strengthening storm. New cone looks dangerous.. One more shift west and there will be plenty of places that have not been evacuated getting hit by what could be a strong Cat 2 or even Cat 3 at the rate its strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 using google earth tracking data on the hurricane hunters I plotted the center fixes and the 4 fixes covered 55 miles from N to S and 21 miles from W to E. so it went 21 miles east and 55 miles north during that time..... Assuming that there is no increase or decrease in the east component the storm will go roughly 60 miles east for every 150 miles it goes north.....its roughly 160 miles southwest of ILM now if it keeps this heading it will put ILM and the south coast beaches really close to the western eyewall and then bring that up the entire coast till landfall around Swansboro with the eastern eyewall coming in right over Bogue Banks. I assume that a more easterly motion will build in as it gets further north but then I look at cloud motions over the interior and NC and VA and I am not so sure..... Then after reading what I just typed look at the latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 I think this is going right over the OBX or even a little west and right over the Pamlico Sound. Things can change rapidly with a hurricane. We have seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 TWC hype - the reporter in KDH just called it a 90 mph storm, since the hurricane hunters found a 90 mph wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 TWC hype - the reporter in KDH just called it a 90 mph storm, since the hurricane hunters found a 90 mph wind. Probably not far from it pressure keeps falling and they are finding some serious winds in it.....all I know is plotting the center fixes from the aircraft does not lend much support to a big enough east motion to get east of Hatteras heck at this rate it wont even get east of Cape Lookout........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Was there supposed to be a cold front coming today that would steer Arthur further east? I know we had rain and storms today in the local forecast, and that was supposed to be from the front. But those have been overdone all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Was there supposed to be a cold front coming today that would steer Arthur further east? I know we had rain and storms today in the local forecast, and that was supposed to be from the front. But those have been overdone all summer. You see that giant blue line? That's the front. You have that to thank for the beautiful 4th of july evening night and spotless weekend we'll have. If anything some may have overdone the "Out to sea" aspect of this storm thinking it wouldn't affect the OBX, but those folks are silly. Model runs were showing this thing hitting Beaufort from the get go and if it doesn't let off, you can't discount it until the fat lady sings and she hasn't sung yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Going to drive to Morehead City this afternoon. No place to stay -- planning to stake out a spot and ride it out. The recent track and intensity trends are little concerning, so I'm preparing for the worst just in case. If I manage to get good video I'll post it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Going to drive to Morehead City this afternoon. No place to stay -- planning to stake out a spot and ride it out. The recent track and intensity trends are little concerning, so I'm preparing for the worst just in case. If I manage to get good video I'll post it here. I would caution you, if this thing gets 100+ mph you best bet would be to get out of there before it hits chasing a strong Cat 2 or even low end Cat 3 from a car is not going to be a lot of fun......plus its going to be dark ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Let's just watch Arthur wobble baby http://gifsound.com/?gif=37.media.tumblr.com/ab09da1763c7da88ebbf59a915bea852/tumblr_mtdlfb9qzE1ql6dbio1_400.gif&v=Nw1mgkGF-ZA&s=31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I would caution you, if this thing gets 100+ mph you best bet would be to get out of there before it hits chasing a strong Cat 2 or even low end Cat 3 from a car is not going to be a lot of fun......plus its going to be dark ugh Yeah, if it looks like I'm going to be in the NE quad of a cat 2+ I don't plan to stick around. My expectation is still that Morehead City will avoid the strongest winds, but it could be damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Strong storms about to push in here at Oak Island. Will advise what occurs. I expect winds 30-40 mph. Just got back from beach, and will post videos and pictures soon, if the power stays on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Well if anything the last few frames of the radar almost suggest a slightly west of north motion lol.....also the storms moving WEST in NC is odd you would think if a trough was coming in to push this thing east those storms wouldn't be doing that. Wilmington might end up getting it pretty bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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