smog strangler Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Where did you see that this was going to crush FL? You have been posting about the lack of activity there, and I know it sucks to not get storms when you want them, but I never saw FL getting anything more then T-storms. The NW quadrant of the storm has always been weak and wasn't modeled to strengthen until it got off the FL/GA coast. lol what are you talking about. FL was never going to be "crushed". egads here we go ……. maybe I'm a little dry with some humor. Whatever. Either way I found it quite interesting to be able to observe and document just how lame the west side of a system like this can be just 50 miles from the center. It was actually enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I don't think anything has been "overhyped". Yes...in presenting an argument to your discussion some things were "stretched to fit the argument", but nowhere did I see "overhyped" Yes...the strongest winds are still in the SE quad, but don't get yourself comfortable thinking that a steady wind of 40ish with higher gusts, heavy rain and the possibility of tornado's won't cause issues on the 4th of July weekend. We all know the locals can handle a system like this, but to everyone visiting, they don't have a clue. He's been doing this since before the severe outbreak in April, and I'm tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 91 mph reading found @ 950 mb level per last Dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I lived on the coast of South Carolina and both coasts of Florida for 25 years and been in my share of storms.. I can tell you from experience if you catch a Cat 1 in a strengthening phase it's no laughing matter. Just ask the folks in SE Florida who went through Katrina. I know people, seasoned coastal people, who said that was the scariest Cat 1 they'd ever been through. Some put it up there with Andrew in the fear factor. 500 million dollars of damage and 14 dead from a Cat 1. They have to issue evacs. If they leave they leave. At least some of the tourists might get to come back the next 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Dry air hurting it again. Eyewall is open to the NW. FWIW tomorrow is the day that the models are really strengthening the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I lived on the coast of South Carolina and both coasts of Florida for 25 years and been in my share of storms.. I can tell you from experience if you catch a Cat 1 in a strengthening phase it's no laughing matter. Just ask the folks in SE Florida who went through Katrina. I know people, seasoned coastal people, who said that was the scariest Cat 1 they'd ever been through. Some put it up there with Andrew in the fear factor. 500 million dollars of damage and 14 dead from a Cat 1. They have to issue evacs. If they leave they leave. At least some of the tourists might get to come back the next 4th Not to mention that the NC Outer Banks is a whole different proposition entirely. In SC and Fl you can be 5 miles inland in 5 minutes. There are places on the Outer Banks where it would take 5 hours, assuming Highway 12 isn't washed out. That in itself is a big assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Dry air hurting it again. Eyewall is open to the NW. FWIW tomorrow is the day that the models are really strengthening the system. I dunno looks like its deeping rapidly on the aircraft data which doest happen with a poorly definded center and the AVN loop shows it about to pop a eye doesnt look to be hurting at all to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Not to mention that the NC Outer Banks is a whole different proposition entirely. In SC and Fl you can be 5 miles inland in 5 minutes. There are places on the Outer Banks where it would take 5 hours, assuming Highway 12 isn't washed out. That in itself is a big assumption. They are going to have 14 hrs of daylight tomorrow to get them all off, the problem is a lot of folks will decide to wait till morning instead of driving up Hwy 12 tonight so tomorrow morning may be a huge mess and I really feel for the folks in Rodanthe and Salvo etc....thats a long drive to Nags Head on a narrow two lane road with bumper to bumper traffic most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Lightning increasing substantially near Arthur's COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Last fix from the NOAA plane was 988mb (probably should have been 987 but whatever) and basically all day it has been dropping 1 mb an hour. If that trend continues too much longer we may have a real storm approaching the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 There will always be wobble's. Overall motion is determined by center fixes within 3 hr increments Well, if it is anything like the movie Arthur, it will wobble a lot because it's drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Lightning increasing substantially near Arthur's COC. It wouldnt take much for this thing to go nuts the next 24 hrs look pretty darn favorable overall, also looks close to forming a cleared out eye, I would love to be in the plane flying it right now I bet the light show is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Last fix from the NOAA plane was 988mb (probably should have been 987 but whatever) and basically all day it has been dropping 1 mb an hour. If that trend continues too much longer we may have a real storm approaching the coast. Well if it can hit 75 KT's by 11 it would have officially "RI'd" NHC Classification... "Rapid Intensification: An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I dunno looks like its deeping rapidly on the aircraft data which doest happen with a poorly definded center and the AVN loop shows it about to pop a eye doesnt look to be hurting at all to me. On radar it surely doesn't look as good as it did earlier. Another way to tell dry air is keeping it in check is by the outflow boundary racing toward GA/SC. NHC probably going to keep it at 70mph and maybe decrease the pressure by a millibar or two. Looks to be moving very slowly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This storm is strenghtening quickly as it moves along the Gulf Stream towards the Carolina coast. I am actually at Oak Island on vacation, so I will try to post updates with what I see as the storm moves up the coast, but this does appear to be a very strong storm for the coast of NC. I am looking forward to having sustained tropical storm winds for the first time ever and riding out my first tropical storm/hurricane ever, I just hope it does stay off the coast. This storm has the potential to cause a lot of problems for a lot of vacationers and locals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Convection looks to be broadening in the SE quadrant with new lightning strokes appearing rapidly on the far SE periphery of the main concentration of lightning. A good bit more lightning occurring now as compared to a couple of hours earlier. Strengthening updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 On radar it surely doesn't look as good as it did earlier. Another way to tell dry air is keeping it in check is by the outflow boundary racing toward GA/SC. NHC probably going to keep it at 70mph and maybe decrease the pressure by a millibar or two. Looks to be moving very slowly west. Radar is looking high and higher as it moves away from land so that is not the best indicator to go by.....also it appears on IR that the NW side is looking better and the NE and east side have good thunderstorm development ongoing its most likely about to undergo another strengthening phase.....it may have just taken a breath so to speak from its last growth spurt and a new one appears to be commencing.......friggen Hvward ninjad me http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-rbtop-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Lightning increasing substantially near Arthur's COC. It wouldnt take much for this thing to go nuts the next 24 hrs look pretty darn favorable overall, also looks close to forming a cleared out eye, I would love to be in the plane flying it right now I bet the light show is amazing. Intense and increased lightning in a cyclone can indicate dry air intrusion if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NAM appears to trend eastward with the storm as the tropical models trend west, well it looks like it will scrape by the southern beaches and possibly landfall near the Outer Banks. But I have noticed some strengthening in the storm on the east side, but the west side looks really rough with dry air wrapping in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Intense and increased lightning in a cyclone can indicate dry air intrusion if I recall correctly. Not in Hurricane Emily, Rita, or Katrina. Most hurricanes don't have a lot of lightning so it indicates some switch has been turned. http://www.lightningsfety.com/nlsi_info/thunder.html http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2006/hurricane_lightning.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Radar is looking high and higher as it moves away from land so that is not the best indicator to go by.....also it appears on IR that the NW side is looking better and the NE and east side have good thunderstorm development ongoing its most likely about to undergo another strengthening phase.....it may have just taken a breath so to speak from its last growth spurt and a new one appears to be commencing.......friggen Hvward ninjad me http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-rbtop-short.html IR lags behind by about 45 minutes. Probably within the next image you will see the clouds tops warming on the western side and a huge blowup on the SE side. All it does is need to wrap the convection all the way around, then it will take off. The western part of the eye has completely degraded and that part is within the radar range.HRRR shows it somewhat at the beginning of the run, then bombs the storm out by the end of the run. http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_se.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 There is nothing better than a calamity loop I've missed them (stolen from the main page) Another full day of Arthur. It looks like there has been some westerly wind shear. Amazing structual change, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like first feeder bands approaching Savannah and Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like first feeder bands approaching Savannah and CharlestonThose are storms that just fired along an OFB that Arthur shot out. Might help in clearing some of the dry air that is entering the system from the west by moistening up the atmosphere. It also looks like there may be some shear from the west that is inhibiting this from intensifying rapidly. Interesting that the NHC track is the furthest East on this image. http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NAM appears to trend eastward with the storm as the tropical models trend west, well it looks like it will scrape by the southern beaches and possibly landfall near the Outer Banks. But I have noticed some strengthening in the storm on the east side, but the west side looks really rough with dry air wrapping in. hi-res nam was more inline with gfs and is through the sounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Not there yet... 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014...ARTHUR HAS NOT YET BECOME A HURRICANE...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...30.6N 79.1WABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINAABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 hi-res nam was more inline with gfs and is through the sounds. Yes, I see it. Questions still remain about the eventual track, but I have noticed on radar where the center is appeared to have stalled at least temporarily. I still believe the track will be just east of Wilmington and clipping Cape Hatteras. It will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Credit CAE's facebook page......here are the wave heights at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Credit CAE's facebook page......here are the wave heights at the moment Arthur waves.jpg Wow 24'? Thats crazy. Lots of lightning showing up near the potential eye wall now. Things are going to get interesting with this thing overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Our local news said there have been LOTS of water rescues at Myrtle Beach specifically , but at alot of other beaches, I'm sure, due to rip currents worse than normal because of Arthur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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