downeastnc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Mandatory evacuation for Hatteras Island. Good call expect to see that extend north to Nags Head if the track shift any further west the lastest GFS track would put all the OBX on the right side and the storm looks primed to strengthen quite a bit although it also could weaken before it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The HRRR has this moving NW for a bit with this latest run. It has been doing pretty well with this system so far when you compare the simulated reflectivity versus what is actually showing up. http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_se.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 As far as the evacuation goes, it's called being safe instead of sorry. There are not many wasy to get off the OBX. They don't want people there IF this gets worse and people get trapped. Even if it doesn't cause much damage, you don't want a bunch of people stranded on an island with no power. And who knows what could happen if it gets worse. That is always a chance. And the people in charge can't afford to take that chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The HRRR has this moving NW for a bit with this latest run. It has been doing pretty well with this system so far when you compare the simulated reflectivity versus what is actually showing up. http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_se.gif And currently the storm is tracking to the west of due north per the recon center fixes, so far this model has been showing a constant solution of Arthur coming inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 18z GFS has Arthur making landfall just west of the Morehead City/Beaufort area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Since we are on the subject of evacuations. There shouldn't be voluntary and mandatory evacuations imo. There should only be a recommendation from the government to evacuate and in this case I'd say they should recommend that to everyone on the outer banks. That said it should be up to an individual if they want to actually leave or not. I know this isn't a Katrina situation but in that case you had many people saying well if god wanted me to leave he would give me a sign. To that I say sometimes god sends you a weather man that says "Hey, see this big ass storm? It's going to hit your hometown you may want to leave." (Again, you can't fix stupid) Do people really need the government telling them that that have to evacuate or else? Again, If I had a family in the path of Arthur I'd leave now mandatory or not but that's just me. I guess my rant has more to do with the government staying out of private citizens lives than anything else. This has being safer than sorry and a serious Cover Your Ass feel too it and I can't say I agree with a mandatory evacuation when we are talking about what will more than likely be a cat 1. Granted I'm not all too familiar with the NC outer banks but I do know this is a pretty common event for them and most folks don't leave for cat 1's. Carry on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Since we are on the subject of evacuations. There shouldn't be voluntary and mandatory evacuations imo. There should only be a recommendation from the government to evacuate and in this case I'd say they should recommend that to everyone on the outer banks. That said it should be up to an individual if they want to actually leave or not. I know this isn't a Katrina situation but in that case you had many people saying well if god wanted me to leave he would give me a sign. To that I say sometimes god sends you a weather man that says "Hey, see this big ass storm? It's going to hit your hometown you may want to leave." (Again, you can't fix stupid) Do people really need the government telling them that that have to evacuate or else? Again, If I had a family in the path of Arthur I'd leave now mandatory or not but that's just me. I guess my rant has more to do with the government staying out of private citizens lives than anything else. This has being safer than sorry and a serious Cover Your Ass feel too it and I can't say I agree with a mandatory evacuation when we are talking about what will more than likely be a cat 1. Granted I'm not all too familiar with the NC outer banks but I do know this is a pretty common event for them and most folks don't leave for cat 1's. Carry on.... First responders shouldn't have to put their lives on the line to save the idiots that ignore evacuation orders and stay in a dangerous location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 18z GFS has Arthur making landfall just west of the Morehead City/Beaufort area. Notice the inland side wind maxima we had something similar in Irene we had winds gusting to 60-70+ all day 60-70 miles WEST of the center of a Cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 is it me or did Arthur just take a serious wobble to the west. Is that something to watch or just a minor deviation that has no bearing on overall track down the road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Why is everyone talking about a GFS solution that, considering the model's performance, is irrelevant and--barring some significant model shifts west--won't happen? At most this will strike Hatteras, leaving the strongest winds (hurricane force) offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Why is everyone talking about a GFS solution that, considering the model's performance, is irrelevant and--barring some significant model shifts west--won't happen? At most this will strike Hatteras, leaving the strongest winds (hurricane force) offshore.You seem very gung-ho about this prediction of yours. While you may very well end up being correct, is there really any point in shooting down possible outcomes that don't line up with what you think will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Why is everyone talking about a GFS solution that, considering the model's performance, is irrelevant and--barring some significant model shifts west--won't happen? At most this will strike Hatteras, leaving the strongest winds (hurricane force) offshore. It's another one of the many solutions still on the table that could impact a lot of folks and I think its completely relevant to discuss it in the Arthur DISCUSSION thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 is it me or did Arthur just take a serious wobble to the west. Is that something to watch or just a minor deviation that has no bearing on overall track down the road? There will always be wobble's. Overall motion is determined by center fixes within 3 hr increments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Why is everyone talking about a GFS solution that, considering the model's performance, is irrelevant and--barring some significant model shifts west--won't happen? At most this will strike Hatteras, leaving the strongest winds (hurricane force) offshore. Because it's a weather board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Thanks for the clarification Buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Because it's a weather board I know crazy huh, people that think that the strength or track of this thng is set in stone just show their lack of actual understanding of the weather and espcecially hurricanes off the Carolina coast. Hopefully it does go east of Hatteras as a weak Cat 1 but models have all trended west some and that trend appears to be continuing with the 18Z runs the Euro tonight should be interesting if it goes west some I think the NHC will have no choice but to include a landfall in their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 It isn't just about the GFS. It's about all of the guidance shifting slightly west. They, of course, could all be wrong and do the Dodge the coast routine through forces that seem to bounce storms around Jamaica a lot but the fact that guidance is reminding everyone to be vigilant and not let their guard down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 It's another one of the many solutions still on the table that could impact a lot of folks and I think its completely relevant to discuss it in the Arthur DISCUSSION thread. I just think that this event's being dangerously overhyped by some (but by no means all) people here. While there will be moderate effects from the surge, the small size of the wind field and the acceleration of the center in the next 24 hours will likely limit effects. The acceleration would also put the strongest winds SE of the center, so only a track west of Hatteras/OBX (which most models still don't support) would produce winds stronger than TS intensity on the NC coast. (At most the most reliable models show a direct hit on Hatteras, but not a pass to the west of that place, except in the case of the HWRF and the GFDL, both of which are based partly on the unreliable GFS.) Even a strengthening system won't change the wind radius much, if at all. Some of the speculation about Cat. 2+ is just unwarranted, considering that the satellite data don't yet show a large CDO developing with strong convection in the SW quadrant, although the storm is clearly deepening and slowly but steadily organizing. The reliable models indicate 75-80 kt is a reasonable peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Also, the NHC's track lies on the eastern envelope of the guidance ensemble track forecast plots. So basically people know Arthur is out there and ultimately it is their personal responsibility to make decisions to ensure their safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Because it's a weather board meh, one if the largest elements of every wx board I have been involved with HYPE and WISHCASTING are a real element in every one of them. So much is debated by complete amateurs into individual model runs. Comments about "trends" etc. It is very important to be able to read through the haze and determine the handful that actually have a good grasp on this inexact science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 It isn't just about the GFS. It's about all of the guidance shifting slightly west. They, of course, could all be wrong and do the Dodge the coast routine through forces that seem to bounce storms around Jamaica a lot but the fact that guidance is reminding everyone to be vigilant and not let their guard down Indeed....and with the NHC continuing to stay on the east side of guidance, it does open the track up to shift slightly west if this trend continues. A 30 mile shift west (or east) will make a difference to some in the short term. The important thing to be aware of is the radius of winds that circle the cyclone, not the exact path of the center. Unless you are chasing I just think that this event's being dangerously overhyped by some (but by no means all) people here. While there will be moderate effects from the surge, the small size of the wind field and the acceleration of the center in the next 24 hours will likely limit effects. The acceleration would also put the strongest winds SE of the center, so only a track west of Hatteras/OBX (which most models still don't support) would produce winds stronger than TS intensity on the NC coast. (At most the most reliable models show a direct hit on Hatteras, but not a pass to the west of that place, except in the case of the HWRF and the GFDL, both of which are based partly on the unreliable GFS.) Even a strengthening system won't change the wind radius much, if at all. Some of the speculation about Cat. 2+ is just unwarranted, considering that the satellite data don't yet show a large CDO developing with strong convection in the SW quadrant, although the storm is clearly deepening and slowly but steadily organizing. The reliable models indicate 75-80 kt is a reasonable peak intensity. I don't think anything has been "overhyped". Yes...in presenting an argument to your discussion some things were "stretched to fit the argument", but nowhere did I see "overhyped" Yes...the strongest winds are still in the SE quad, but don't get yourself comfortable thinking that a steady wind of 40ish with higher gusts, heavy rain and the possibility of tornado's won't cause issues on the 4th of July weekend. We all know the locals can handle a system like this, but to everyone visiting, they don't have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Still a tropical storm at 8 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I just think that this event's being dangerously overhyped by some (but by no means all) people here. While there will be moderate effects from the surge, the small size of the wind field and the acceleration of the center in the next 24 hours will likely limit effects. The acceleration would also put the strongest winds SE of the center, so only a track west of Hatteras/OBX (which most models still don't support) would produce winds stronger than TS intensity on the NC coast. (At most the most reliable models show a direct hit on Hatteras, but not a pass to the west of that place, except in the case of the HWRF and the GFDL, both of which are based partly on the unreliable GFS.) Even a strengthening system won't change the wind radius much, if at all. Some of the speculation about Cat. 2+ is just unwarranted, considering that the satellite data don't yet show a large CDO developing with strong convection in the SW quadrant, although the storm is clearly deepening and slowly but steadily organizing. The reliable models indicate 75-80 kt is a reasonable peak intensity. The problem you have is you are basing EVERYTHING you say on models that change every single time they run, if the model consensus has a landfall over Emerald Isle tomorrow will you still insist it is going east of Hatteras? Also there is no such thing as "reliable" intensity models, so the peak intensity currently modeled doesnt really mean anything its more or less a educated guess.....we just know its not likely to disspate or to go Cat 5 in the next 24 hrs...other than that guessing what the peak strength will be or what it will be when it nears NC is just that educated guessing. Still a tropical storm at 8 pm. Unreal plenty of evidence this is a hurricane at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I just think that this event's being dangerously overhyped by some people here. While there will be moderate effects from the surge, the small size of the wind field and the acceleration of the center in the next 24 hours will likely limit effects. A potential landfall of a hurricane in that part of NC (or anywhere) cannot be dangerously over-hyped.It can, however, be dangerously overlooked if folks aren't at least looking at potential solutions that would bode ill for so many. We're not talking about a rogue model sending Arthur in some opposite direction. It's a minor nuance that could make a huge difference to a lot of people. What is dangerous about discussing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 A potential landfall of a hurricane in that part of NC (or anywhere) cannot be dangerously over-hyped.It can, however, be dangerously overlooked if folks aren't at least looking at potential solutions that would bode ill for so many. We're not talking about a rogue model sending Arthur in some opposite direction. It's a minor nuance that could make a huge difference to a lot of people. What is dangerous about discussing that? Well you are making the assumption that you can't put a price tag on a human life. Not saying you are right or wrong, but it is an assumption that some could, would, and have argued is false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Check this out ….. a good look at the meager rainfall a struggling (at the time) Arthur bestowed on the east coast of FL yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Good lightning tool to observe possible strengthening. http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=pl This should be Cat 1 imo also but the deep convection has really just gotten going in the last hour or two so expect that to take another few hours to translate into numerical strengthening. There is no reason to not discuss potential or possibilities. People 2 days out said Sandy was going East and we all know how that turned out. My only problem with no hurricane upgrade is that most people will be asleep now if it is upgraded tonight and that leaves 1 day to prepare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Man, with all this live action in here, you would think it's a snowstorm thread!!? I think based on the latest sat. images look like it's slowly strengthening and I think the 11pm advisory will definately have this being a hurricane with 80 mph winds . They may have an intermediate advisory sooner! Whose staying up for the Euro pbp!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Check this out ….. a good look at the meager rainfall a struggling (at the time) Arthur bestowed on the east coast of FL yesterday. Where did you see that this was going to crush FL? You have been posting about the lack of activity there, and I know it sucks to not get storms when you want them, but I never saw FL getting anything more then T-storms. The NW quadrant of the storm has always been weak and wasn't modeled to strengthen until it got off the FL/GA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I just think that this event's being dangerously overhyped by some (but by no means all) people here. You have some serious problems with an inflated ego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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