Brick Tamland Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks like it is tightening up now. You can clearly see the eye forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I am working nights this week which sucks cause I got to sleep all day, the storm should have a big day today and I will sleep through it.....will be watching for any west of track trends or model trends showing a further west track......as it stands this would be a meh event west of Hwy 17 and a non event west of I95 but 50-75 miles further west and that changes things for a bunch of folks assuming its more than a high end TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks like it is tightening up now. You can clearly see the eye forming.Looks like trash now. You should have saw it last night. That thing was ready to take off, then dry air and some mid level shear came our of nowhere. Convection is struggling to wrap all the way around the eye, but according to the models, it should really intensify today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks like trash now. You should have saw it last night. That thing was ready to take off, then dry air and some mid level shear came our of nowhere. Convection is struggling to wrap all the way around the eye, but according to the models, it should really intensify today and tomorrow. I guess I was looking at the satellite image from overnight. Are we still a day from it becoming a hurricane, or could it happen today? I saw the max sustained winds were 60 mph at the 8am update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks like it is tightening up now. You can clearly see the eye forming. No.....dry air/dust has to work its way out first. Did you even really bother to look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I guess I was looking at the satellite image from overnight. Are we still a day from it becoming a hurricane, or could it happen today? I saw the max sustained winds were 60 mph at the 8am update.Yes it is still expected to become a hurricane. It was supposed to today, but has now been changed to tomorrow. Outer banks of NC are expecting a hurricane hurricane. There are going to be some really disappointed people if this misses or doesn't come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Yes it is still expected to become a hurricane. It was supposed to today, but has now been changed to tomorrow. Outer banks of NC are expecting a hurricane hurricane. There are going to be some really disappointed people if this misses or doesn't come to fruition. Why would anyone be disappointed in a hurricane not making landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA* PAMLICO SOUND Should see some voluntary evac plans beginning to go into action. That would be smart imo. The track seems pretty well set, but there are a few things to look for that may indicate that he is going west of track. One would be him going west of track through the next 48 hrs......the NHC states they are on the east side of guidance through the first 48 and if he goes west of that then one would think that would translate down the road as well. Another would be a big increase in speed or another stall these would also effect when and how the trough interacts with him. I still think they will go with mandatory evacs from Cape Lookout up to Nags Head the last HWRF run if it happened would be about worst case scenario for the OBX. Any west trends today in the models will almost force the NHC to show a path crossing at least the OBX..... I am exactly 100 miles WNW of Hatteras and they are calling for winds to not gust over 40 here which sounds about right given the setup Yeah most of the High Res models have this tracking near the western edge of the cone. I guess time will tell but I would hate for this to go west and hit Wilmington when on TWC this am their local spokesperson was downplaying the situation big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Why would anyone be disappointed in a hurricane not making landfall?Lol I didn't mean it like that. The people who are going to leave because a hurricane is supposed to be heading there, but doesn't or nothing happens that really disrupts activities. Then next time a storm threatens, they won't leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 on radar the eye is almost completely closed off, I think once that happens we are a go for steady development, its fighting off the dry air well this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 on radar the eye is almost completely closed off, I think once that happens we are a go for steady development, its fighting off the dry air well this morning. Yeah velocity scan really ramping up over the past couple scans. Just recently closed itself off. Pressure drop of 1mb on 11am up from NHC, no wind speed change. Radar presentation continuing to get more developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 They just upgraded our tropical storm watch to a warning, im one county away from the hurricane watch as well...ready for the fun and games to begin haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 They just upgraded our tropical storm watch to a warning, im one county away from the hurricane watch as well...ready for the fun and games to begin haha. Just saw that too. We are now under a Hurricane watch and Tropical Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Do we have any posters from the outer banks? They look like the best place for hurricane force winds from this guy. JMO people inland will not have much to worry about from Arthur. With the curving out to sea nature of the track most of far Eastern NC will remain on the western side of a retreating cyclone. That equates to not much to write home about. Again JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Well if it takes the track that the HWRF has constantly been spitting out then I'll be right in the eye haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Well if it takes the track that the HWRF has constantly been spitting out then I'll be right in the eye haha. I'm not sure how HWRF does regarding track but it has a raging bias that strengthens storms more then actually ends up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 well the new euro has 966 mb a couple miles east of Cape Hatteras, 970 right on top of them, they need to evacuate the outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 well the new euro has 966 mb a couple miles east of Cape Hatteras, 970 right on top of them, they need to evacuate the outer banks. JMO but the outer banks are going to get a pretty good storm but certainly nothing that they haven't seen before. They are used to cat 1-2's coming through? Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Not on July 4th JMO but the outer banks are going to get a pretty good storm but certainly nothing that they haven't seen before. They are used to cat 1-2's coming through? Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Yeah our residents could deal but tourists in peak season... not so much haha, our food lions are already going crazy smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 well the new euro has 966 mb a couple miles east of Cape Hatteras, 970 right on top of them, they need to evacuate the outer banks. is that 50 miles or so west from 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 JMO but the outer banks are going to get a pretty good storm but certainly nothing that they haven't seen before. They are used to cat 1-2's coming through? Right? There are 10's of thousands of people out there from all over the country that have no idea the hell they are in for if they stay and this thing goes west of the OBX and the get right sided by a Cat 2. Most of the houses etc will be fine, but a lot of their cars are going to get a bath in ocean water and the salt spray and sand blasting will pit their windshields and paint jobs. Then the power will go out and Hwy 12 will over wash for miles all up and down the islands and they will be stuck wherever they are for days most likely with no power etc.....thats what COULD happen if this thing is 50 miles left of track.....if it goes 75-100 miles west of track then these issues extends further south to include Emerald Isle and the Crystal Coast. This thing wobbles a few times to the west at the right time and its bad news for the beaches by the same token a eastern wobble total saves them, its a tough call to tell people to leave since they have invested a lot of time and travel and money to get to the OBX so they don't want to tell them to leave only to have it miss wide right, the businesses down there also rely on this weekend to really pad the bank account for the winter layoff and sending people off the island will cost them millions. That said they don't have much time to pull the trigger it takes 36 hrs to get folks off and well we are close to being inside that window now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 There are 10's of thousands of people out there from all over the country that have no idea the hell they are in for if they stay and this thing goes west of the OBX and the get right sided by a Cat 2. Most of the houses etc will be fine, but a lot of their cars are going to get a bath in ocean water and the salt spray and sand blasting will pit their windshields and paint jobs. Then the power will go out and Hwy 12 will over wash for miles all up and down the islands and they will be stuck wherever they are for days most likely with no power etc.....thats what COULD happen if this thing is 50 miles left of track.....if it goes 75-100 miles west of track then these issues extends further south to include Emerald Isle and the Crystal Coast. This thing wobbles a few times to the west at the right time and its bad news for the beaches by the same token a eastern wobble total saves them, its a tough call to tell people to leave since they have invested a lot of time and travel and money to get to the OBX so they don't want to tell them to leave only to have it miss wide right, the businesses down there also rely on this weekend to really pad the bank account for the winter layoff and sending people off the island will cost them millions. That said they don't have much time to pull the trigger it takes 36 hrs to get folks off and well we are close to being inside that window now. Highway 12 is going to wash over even if it wobbles east. They might be ok as far up as Kitty Hawk and Kill Devil Hills, but I would suggest anyone planning on staying from Nags Head to Okracoke to cancel their plans and those going North of Nags Head to continue to watch and be ready to cancel. It isn't going to be another Isabel, but the Outer Banks get bad even in run of the mill fall Noreasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I have to say that it is sort off like "do they get it" wrt evactuations and warnings? Did the NHC take some sort of turn when new director took over wrt Warnings/watches upgrades/downgrades with tropical systems? I was reading comments of some mets and they are very perplexed why warning /watches were not out on NC coast sooner, and these are not people who usually question nhc, they usually stand up for them. With all due respect to their knowledge it seems like they are out of touch, with the fact that the general public who they are suppose to protect do not follow the weather as close as they do or we do in here. They are not waiting by the latest updates to decide , hey our lives are really in danger lets get out. Some check it when they can, and don't make it a central part of their day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The new regime at the NHC seem to be very focused on being scientifically accurate and have shown very little willingness to err on the side of public safety. It will be interesting to see what happens when we finally get our long overdue major hurricane landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 They're making the decision to evacuate at the 1730 Dare County meeting. It seems likely we will be evacuated here on Hatteras, unfortunately. We booked a hotel room in Nags Head for Thursday/Friday nights in case we are evacuated but Nags Head is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Has the forecasted track gone east of the OBX now? WRAL saying it should run parallel to the North Carolina coast tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Has the forecasted track gone east of the OBX now? WRAL saying it should run parallel to the North Carolina coast tomorrow night. 12z Euro came west some, NHC typically only updates the cone with full advisories. I'm not sure what they will end up doing. There's no way to nail it down within 50 miles more than 48 hours out and 50 miles will make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 12z Euro came west some, NHC typically only updates the cone with full advisories. I'm not sure what they will end up doing. There's no way to nail it down within 50 miles more than 48 hours out and 50 miles will make all the difference. When they say it will run parrallel to the coast, it makes it sound like they think it won't come on land at the OBX at all, but stay just off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 12z Euro came west some, NHC typically only updates the cone with full advisories. I'm not sure what they will end up doing. There's no way to nail it down within 50 miles more than 48 hours out and 50 miles will make all the difference. Yep depending on eye size 50 miles further west than the current path if it where to be correct would put basically Cape Lookout up to Kill Devil Hills in the NE and eastside eyewall. Sucks for the folks out there but Hatteras north needs to get off, hopefully it misses east and they can get back on the islands quickly.....the last thing they need is a bunch of tourist out there if it does go left, I can only imagine how many idiots would be on the beach or trying to surf etc if they leave all the tourist out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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