yotaman Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The only members in the SE that will be impacted are AFJO62, downeastnc?, and smog stranger, and others I believe. The storms in your forecast are from the cold front. I am here in New Bern and watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z GFS hold with the pattern of continuing to strengthen and pretty much keeps it on the same path as the last few runs. It also keeps the pressure around 1002mb just off the Hatteras Coast. The 12z HWRF is pretty interesting though showing a low pressure system registering 976mb following the NC coastline on Thursday evening. Could be an outlier but nonetheless interesting to watch as the storm progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Recon found a 61 kt. flight level wind last pass. Arthur certainly seems to be getting its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Also of note along with the 61 KT flight level wind is noted that a possible eyewall SE-SW was indicated. SLP extrapolation of 1003 mb taken at 925mb level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Impressive forecast... FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6WMAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Looks like the center has reformed under the very deep convection. Also the plane found 998.1mb earlier. Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 24hrs ago I was skeptical of Arthur, but now...I don't know, it could end up being quite a formidable storm to watch evolve this Independence Day Holiday. It looks really cool on IR/Visible satellite so far! (Although I have been greatly deceived by that more than once before in the past.) This hurricane season is already starting off 100x more exciting/interesting than last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 metalicwx366, on 01 Jul 2014 - 10:31 AM, said: The only members in the SE that will be impacted are AFJO62, downeastnc?, and smog stranger, and others I believe. The storms in your forecast are from the cold front I live 1/2 mile from beach here in North Myrtle . Kind of excited hope to get some decent photo's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 So he looks really good on radar and he could get a lot accomplished on DMAX tonight and should be a borderline cane by 11 am I think especially if the 61kn FL wind was accurate.....the real fun is gonna be Friday and whether of not he hits NC or not..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 So he looks really good on radar and he could get a lot accomplished on DMAX tonight and should be a borderline cane by 11 am I think especially if the 61kn FL wind was accurate.....the real fun is gonna be Friday and whether of not he hits NC or not..... Even if it turns out to be a landfall, I can't think of a worse week to chase. I'd run head on into 500,000 Griswold's running from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Even if it turns out to be a landfall, I can't think of a worse week to chase. I'd run head on into 500,000 Griswold's running from the storm. Yeah epically bad timing on mother natures part and the stronger they forecast it the more likely they are going to go mandatory evacs for the entire OBX ( I shudder to imagine how many people are gonna be there this weekend) Even if it just barely misses its going to be a expensive storm lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Even if it turns out to be a landfall, I can't think of a worse week to chase. I'd run head on into 500,000 Griswold's running from the storm. Yeah I have a house in Beaufort and I was planning on going down there tomorrow but I may just stay. Local officials are going to be slow to evacuate and cost businesses their biggest week of the year and it is really going to be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 this storm is really taking off now, the D-max is going to be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Don't want to ever direct anyone away from our Board, but for good supplemental info/graphics/satellite that is real current, another SE Board which has tropical info and is really worth a look is: http://www.hardcoreweather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Arthur has been a zero event on the East FL Coast minus a few quick squalls that managed to make it all the way in. Pretty damn good near term track forecasting by NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I like what I am seeing on the water vapor loop tonight. Strong convection really getting going very nicely over the last two hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 70 mph wind readings and an upgrade to Hurricane Arthur in the next few updates. It could come as early as the 11 pm update but likely by the 8am update. It is going to be fun to track this over the next few days! 18z HWRF keeps the idea of a strong storm (980mb) going right over the Pamlico Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I like what I am seeing on the water vapor loop tonight. Strong convection really getting going very nicely over the last two hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 70 mph wind readings and an upgrade to Hurricane Arthur in the next few updates. It could come as early as the 11 pm update but likely by the 8am update. It is going to be fun to track this over the next few days! 18z HWRF keeps the idea of a strong storm (980mb) going right over the Pamlico Sound.Yeah it really is fun tracking this storm. Amazing to think that this started with a blow up of storms that was in the GOM, traveled across Alabama and GA where you could clearly see the spin up there on visible, then dived S through SC and ended up where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Yeah it really is fun tracking this storm. Amazing to think that this started with a blow up of storms that was in the GOM, traveled across Alabama and GA where you could clearly see the spin up there on visible, then dived S through SC and ended up where it is now. meh, fun for you northerners I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 meh, fun for you northerners I guess. I'm not expecting anything but clouds from this. All the action is to your south. Look at the band in South Florida. You might get some action overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Are evac orders usually a 24,36 or 48 hour window from landfall and/or storm conditions? Just curious if we will see NC island communities roll the dice on a strong TS or go ahead and evac, and how soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Are evac orders usually a 24,36 or 48 hour window from landfall and/or storm conditions? Just curious if we will see NC island communities roll the dice on a strong TS or go ahead and evac, and how soon? My guess is by noon tomorrow, they need 36 hrs or so to get everyone out...... if the storm makes cane status and they call for a Cat 1-2 to skirt the OBX then they will pull the trigger on evacs.....leaving that many people on the islands is risky a west trend at the last minute or a sudden intensification a la Bertha 1996 could cause huge problems if they leave the folks out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Are evac orders usually a 24,36 or 48 hour window from landfall and/or storm conditions? Just curious if we will see NC island communities roll the dice on a strong TS or go ahead and evac, and how soon? I think everywhere except Ocracoke and Hatteras will roll the dice. They can't really take that chance. By that I mean wait until early Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Starting to develop an eye feature on radar. Precip still continuing to fill in NE of the circulation and this should continue overnight as the dry air appears to be dissipating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 How much rain has the Bahamas seen? 20 inches? It's been very deep convection over there all day. Now there are storms training from South Florida to Freeport, Bahama feeding into the intensifying tropical storm. Tons of lightning there as well. Also why are tropical storm warnings not up for the Bahamas when they have had tropical storm force winds most of the day including a 54mph gust earlier. Edit: As I posted this, TWC just showed video from the Bahamas of flooding in Nassau. Wonder what it looks like in Freeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Got a question in regards to evacuations...Could the Southern Coastal Islands, south of Wilmington (Oak Island, Sunset Beach, etc...) get the call tomorrow to evacuate?I have family down there and would like to give them some advance warning...assistance would be greatly appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I guess the NHC felt it was best to leave the max winds where they were with the last advisory. I was expecting it to be around 55-60mph in the 11pm advisory. Also I don't know if it would technically be classified as one, but it appears like some "eye" like feature is making an appearance on radar/IR that I've looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Also I don't know if it would technically be classified as one, but it appears like some "eye" like feature is making an appearance on radar/IR that I've looked at.TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Data from the Melbourne WSR-88D radar indicates that Arthur has a complex structure this evening. A mid-level cyclonic circulation accompanied by a possible eye feature is clearly evident near 27.8N 78.8W. However, the motions of the light showers/low clouds seen in the radar data suggest that the low-level center is about 25-30 n mi west of the mid-level center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Arthur early Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I like what I am seeing on the water vapor loop tonight. Strong convection really getting going very nicely over the last two hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 70 mph wind readings and an upgrade to Hurricane Arthur in the next few updates. It could come as early as the 11 pm update but likely by the 8am update. It is going to be fun to track this over the next few days! 18z HWRF keeps the idea of a strong storm (980mb) going right over the Pamlico Sound. Little change on the 8am update but a nice feeder band looks to be taking shape and has the potential to fully wrap around. That will bring the Hurricane Warning sometime today imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Little change on the 8am update but a nice feeder band looks to be taking shape and has the potential to fully wrap around. That will bring the Hurricane Warning sometime today imo. The track seems pretty well set, but there are a few things to look for that may indicate that he is going west of track. One would be him going west of track through the next 48 hrs......the NHC states they are on the east side of guidance through the first 48 and if he goes west of that then one would think that would translate down the road as well. Another would be a big increase in speed or another stall these would also effect when and how the trough interacts with him. I still think they will go with mandatory evacs from Cape Lookout up to Nags Head the last HWRF run if it happened would be about worst case scenario for the OBX. Any west trends today in the models will almost force the NHC to show a path crossing at least the OBX..... I am exactly 100 miles WNW of Hatteras and they are calling for winds to not gust over 40 here which sounds about right given the setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.