Brick Tamland Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 That's a lot of agreement with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Looking at the 6z GFS, this wouldn't be a good scenario for places like Wilmington. The Cape Fear River runs pretty much N/S and the GFS shows this storm hugging the coast and bringing the NW quadrant of the storm almost directly over the top of that area. Places like Bald Head Island could take the brunt of the storm with many southern facing homes. Hopefully this storm doesn't catch those people off guard. If the 6z GFS is correct, the storm will continue North and slam the Barrier Islands with the NW quadrant. The onshore flow will increase storm surge, so I would watch out also in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Is this one of those situations where the incoming trough would enhance the precipitation to the west of the track, or would the majority of the precip be along/east of the track, per the usual landfalling tropical system scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Well the forecast track is starting to lock in a bit, the good news is that coast huggers like this tend to be half systems with the best wind etc out over the water due to land interaction on the west side.....if it doesn't go as far west before turning north again it may have more water to work with and things could get more interesting but it has to form first....I am sure if they had a plane out there it would be a TD now and a TS once it has some storms with the center Is this one of those situations where the incoming trough would enhance the precipitation to the west of the track, or would the majority of the precip be along/east of the track, per the usual landfalling tropical system scenario? the left of track rain scenario would be plausible in not likely depending on several things but typically I would think with a weaker overall system and large weak circulation you would see lots of rain along the foothills etc..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Well the forecast track is starting to lock in a bit, the good news is that coast huggers like this tend to be half systems with the best wind etc out over the water due to land interaction on the west side.....if it doesn't go as far west before turning north again it may have more water to work with and things could get more interesting but it has to form first....I am sure if they had a plane out there it would be a TD now and a TS once it has some storms with the center the left of track rain scenario would be plausible in not likely depending on several things but typically I would think with a weaker overall system and large weak circulation you would see lots of rain along the foothills etc..... Good deal, thanks. I'm still banking on it not making it too far inland. That's a pretty sharp trough incoming and any steering to the west, preceding the trough, is pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Was looking for a track to compare what the models are showing and Hurricane Floyd was one that caught my eye. This of course isn't forming nearly as far out in the Atlantic and I am not saying that this will be anything on the scale of Floyd, but frontal convergence over NC brought rainfall amounts of 8.5 inches to Raleigh, 10.5 inches to Jacksonville, and 19 inches for Wilmington. It appears we will have some frontal convergence again with this storm over NC so I would guess that most of NC has the chance to see rainfall with amounts of 5-8 inches on the coast and 2-4 inches around RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The Floyd rainfall estimates are also low IMO, my backyard gauge held 10" and I dumped it twice and it was over half full when it stopped.....granted it wasn't an official gauge but it was in the open in the backyard 50-70 ft from anything. At one point we got 7-9" in just a few hrs during the worst of it. Really sucks that buoy 41013 is out of service if this thing does come this way it would be great to have its data The local NWS office has a HWO on the possible impact of this system Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC535 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-010945-MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-535 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD BECOME A TROPICALCYCLONE AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHEASTDURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK. IMPACTS WILL DEPENDON THE FORMATION...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE.THESE FACTORS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FORLOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL ASCOASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I don't have work Friday and I get off early Thursday, so I'm considering chasing this (that is if it looks to be a more than just a half-assed TS brush). I know it's still early, but if this follows the general model-forecasted track and is a minimal hurricane while passing near/over NC, would Atlantic Beach be a safe spot? I'm not very familiar with the surge or coastal flooding potential of the beaches north of Wrightsville, which would be my main concern, obviously. I plan to do my homework before going, but if anyone here has more knowledge about coastal NC chasing, I'd appreciate any tips! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I will have many showers (already seeing them) today and tomorrow directly thanks to 91L. http://www.wptv.com/weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I don't have work Friday and I get off early Thursday, so I'm considering chasing this (that is if it looks to be a more than just a half-assed TS brush). I know it's still early, but if this follows the general model-forecasted track and is a minimal hurricane while passing near/over NC, would Atlantic Beach be a safe spot? I'm not very familiar with the surge or coastal flooding potential of the beaches north of Wrightsville, which would be my main concern, obviously. I plan to do my homework before going, but if anyone here has more knowledge about coastal NC chasing, I'd appreciate any tips! Well it all depends on if they go with a mandatory evac if they do you wont be allowed on the island..... The island itself is high enough that water wont be a issue away from the beach. Most hotels etc though will not be allowing guest if under a hurricane warning etc so you will be chasing from your car with no access to a lot of stuff like fuel, food, water....bathroom etc. It will be like a ghost town with everything closed and boarded up ( assuming its a Cat 1 or better)....Jburns chased Irene from his car he can give you some tips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 If you're looking for a fairly good analog storm track, check Charley from '86 (or '85). I think it originally formed over the Gulf and reemerged in the Atlantic before racing NNE over the Outer Banks as a minimal hurricane. Anyway, don't be surprised if this stays offshore, as that is more often the norm, and although current track guidance is tightly clustered over ERN NC, there is plenty of time for that to shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 If you're looking for a fairly good analog storm track, check Charley from '86 (or '85). I think it originally formed over the Gulf and reemerged in the Atlantic before racing NNE over the Outer Banks as a minimal hurricane. Anyway, don't be surprised if this stays offshore, as that is more often the norm, and although current track guidance is tightly clustered over ERN NC, there is plenty of time for that to shift east. The one caveat is that the models have been shifting west not east over time, typically when this happens the chances of a miss to the east are lower. Usually the misses to the east start off as hits that trend eastward over time this one has done the opposite and trended more west over the last couple of days.....I like Alex or Diana as a analog right now Plane is on the way now so I suspect TS Arthur here in the next few hrs and at the very least TD#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Euro Ens Mean I looked at had this thing even possibly coming into interior SC. Really too early to think about it's path. Some modeling is shifting more west as we get closer.. so thinking possibly a middle of a road coastal hug being a result.. but idk. The guys on the main atlantic thread is a good source for anyone who havent been checking it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 12Z GFS shows remarkably low precip totals for a tropical system. Maybe it doesn't do well with these types of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association witha low pressure area located about 125 miles east of Melbourne,Florida. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive fordevelopment, and only a slight increase in organization would resultin the formation of a tropical depression. This system is movingsouthwestward at around and 5 mph but is expected to turn westwardtonight and northward by Wednesday near the east Florida coast. Aturn toward the northeast near the southeastern U.S. coast isexpected by Thursday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraftis en route to investigate the disturbance. If this system becomesa tropical cyclone, a tropical storm watch could be required forportions of the central or northern Atlantic coast of Florida.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.Forecaster Kimberlain/Franklin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The plane has found plenty of TS force winds at the surface so this is TS Arthur just waiting on the special advisory I would think..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The plane has found plenty of TS force winds at the surface so this is TS Arthur just waiting on the special advisory I would think.....Lol and that was mostly in the rain free region. It will be interesting to see what winds they find in the SE quadrant. Glad we got recon out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 its going to be very interesting what happens tonight, in the main thread the visible loop they posted the CoC has dropped south into the heavy thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Euro Ens Mean I looked at had this thing even possibly coming into interior SC. Really too early to think about it's path. Some modeling is shifting more west as we get closer.. so thinking possibly a middle of a road coastal hug being a result.. but idk. The guys on the main atlantic thread is a good source for anyone who havent been checking it out. It's not shifting west soon enough I would love nothing more than to have this sit over the northern midlands for a couple of days...lol That, more than likely, won't happen....but it's always nice to dream its going to be very interesting what happens tonight, in the main thread the visible loop they posted the CoC has dropped south into the heavy thunderstorms The coc will move many times over the next couple of days. The nekked swirl needs to get its act together, shift several hundred miles west and bring mby some much needed rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Well it all depends on if they go with a mandatory evac if they do you wont be allowed on the island..... The island itself is high enough that water wont be a issue away from the beach. Most hotels etc though will not be allowing guest if under a hurricane warning etc so you will be chasing from your car with no access to a lot of stuff like fuel, food, water....bathroom etc. It will be like a ghost town with everything closed and boarded up ( assuming its a Cat 1 or better)....Jburns chased Irene from his car he can give you some tips. Thanks for the info, downeast. I'm not opposed to a car chase. I assume Morehead City and Beaufort will still be accessible under a hurricane warning (even if they shut down)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Thanks for the info, downeast. I'm not opposed to a car chase. I assume Morehead City and Beaufort will still be accessible under a hurricane warning (even if they shut down)? Depends on a lot of things usually though you can still drive around on the mainland..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Depends on a lot of things usually though you can still drive around on the mainland..... You could during Irene. They sealed off the bridge to the island though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Thanks for the info, downeast. I'm not opposed to a car chase. I assume Morehead City and Beaufort will still be accessible under a hurricane warning (even if they shut down)? If there is a very serious threat there may be a curfew. Also, the high rise bridges close when the winds reach a certain level (over 50mph iirc) so if you are in Beaufort or points east you are stuck there until the storm subsides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z Euro precip totals don't look like much for most of the southeast outside of coastal areas of NC/SC. Even the Euro EPS which as the eye coming over MYB isn't all that great for interior sections of NC/SC. I'm sure it is severely underestimating the precip associated with such a storm but that's what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Starting to get some pretty colds tops on the storm over the last 3 satellite scans. Excuse the random screenshot size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 TD 1 has been named for the Atlantic by the Hurricane Center. 000WTNT21 KNHC 010253TCMAT1TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0120140300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OFFLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACHA TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATESSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NMPRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MBMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300ZAT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.0WFORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4WMAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7WMAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9WMAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9WMAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3WMAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NMON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAYOUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0WMAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROPMAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 79.1WNEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z$$FORECASTER BROWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 TWC is saying TD One now. Apparently they just declared it a TD. No one else on this forum has mentioned it yet and we usually are ahead of them. Edit: There we go. ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 TWC is saying TD One now. Apparently they just declared it a TD. No one else on this forum has mentioned it yet and we usually are ahead of them. Edit: There we go. ^ Go to sleep! When you wake up, it will have a name! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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