Sunny and Warm Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 It's still tracking NNE at 030 degrees, so it won't miss NC at this late date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 This thing is really getting tighter and the south and east sides of the center are really going off, it also is moving a bit more north now the eastern edge of the center hasn't moved east much if any the last 6-10 frames on the MHX radar, but the northern edge has moved 10-15 miles north. If this is the beginning of a wobble back to the north then it should landfall right on Emerald Isle then move north up into Pamlico Co and Beaufort Co, this will put all of Morehead and Beaufort and the OBX in the nasty east side it is currently forming..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The eye is looking better than it has most of this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Dry air has really been a saving grace so far. Every time it gets ready to take off, it starts to fall apart. Compare it from earlier to now. Cloud tops much warmer than earlier and dry air eating away the convection. Still impressive looking for a category 1. The warming cloud tops are just a byproduct of it gaining lattitude. Not the same oceanic fuel like there is down in the caribbean. Shouldn't impact it's strengthening in the cat 1-3 ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The eye is looking better than it has most of this evening. It certainly has,I hope Morehead City and Cape Hatteras are ready, things are about to go from bad worse within the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Ground Scouring, on 02 Jul 2014 - 7:20 PM, said:Why is everyone talking about a GFS solution that, considering the model's performance, is irrelevant and--barring some significant model shifts west--won't happen? At most this will strike Hatteras, leaving the strongest winds (hurricane force) offshore. So much for this theory. We now have a Cat. 2, and still strengthening, hurricane bearing down on Beaufort/Morehead City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I just think that this event's being dangerously overhyped by some (but by no means all) people here. While there will be moderate effects from the surge, the small size of the wind field and the acceleration of the center in the next 24 hours will likely limit effects. The acceleration would also put the strongest winds SE of the center, so only a track west of Hatteras/OBX (which most models still don't support) would produce winds stronger than TS intensity on the NC coast. (At most the most reliable models show a direct hit on Hatteras, but not a pass to the west of that place, except in the case of the HWRF and the GFDL, both of which are based partly on the unreliable GFS.) Even a strengthening system won't change the wind radius much, if at all. Some of the speculation about Cat. 2+ is just unwarranted, considering that the satellite data don't yet show a large CDO developing with strong convection in the SW quadrant, although the storm is clearly deepening and slowly but steadily organizing. The reliable models indicate 75-80 kt is a reasonable peak intensity. Sorry for all the unwarranted speculation.. I hope no one listened.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The warming cloud tops are just a byproduct of it gaining lattitude. Not the same oceanic fuel like there is down in the caribbean. Shouldn't impact it's strengthening in the cat 1-3 ranges.Interesting. Thanks for the reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Picking up forward speed, as expected. BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12B NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 900 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...ARTHUR BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 77.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 110 MI...165 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Many gusts in the 50-55 mph range now in the Beaufort area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Many gusts in the 50-55 mph range now in the Beaufort area. Main band associated with eyewall still 15-20 miles offshore to boot so hurricane force gust should be no problem and the beaches might even go sustained cane force..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 This is pseudo-off topic, but the band to the west of the Triad from the cold front fizzled before making it here and we sit high and dry yet again. We haven't had a good rainfall in weeks... We need rain so badly. We got a couple brief showers today, but nothing much. Obviously, anyone west of RDU is pretty much SOL as far as rain goes from the hurricane. The forecast looks dry through mid-next week. EDIT: Forgot about the rain on June 27th... Still, it's been dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 SpotterNetwork report from Atlantic Beach, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Gusting to 51 mph on Cape Lookout @ 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 This is pseudo-off topic, but the band to the west of the Triad from the cold front fizzled before making it here and we sit high and dry yet again. We haven't had a good rainfall in weeks... We need rain so badly. We got a couple brief showers today, but nothing much. Obviously, anyone west of RDU is pretty much SOL as far as rain goes from the hurricane. The forecast looks dry through mid-next week. Lookout said that would happen. <Prime today, with this event. .5" of rain and 65mph winds in 20 minutes. No real damage. That line around the coastal. Best event since February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 This is pseudo-off topic, but the band to the west of the Triad from the cold front fizzled before making it here and we sit high and dry yet again. We haven't had a good rainfall in weeks... We need rain so badly. We got a couple brief showers today, but nothing much. Obviously, anyone west of RDU is pretty much SOL as far as rain goes from the hurricane. The forecast looks dry through mid-next week. EDIT: Forgot about the rain on June 27th... Still, it's been dry. True, but we just missed on this one. North of Hanging Rock State Park it was a blinding rain and flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Come on, there should be at least one tornado warning. Sent from my N9810 using Xparent BlueTapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Batch of storms north of New Bern headed inland with lots of rotations embedded in it a few look to be trying to spin up and we should see more tornado warnings fly here shortly I think. Most tornados so far today have been north of me but these look to be more IMBY...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Piney Island, NC winds SE at 40 gusting to 60. Probably from that most recent band that passed through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The last few frames of the radar shows a slight eastward jog the last few frames. It looks like there will be some sort of landfall, but it may be closer to Cape Lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 I don't know where all the talk of Arthur going east of the OBX is coming from. All signs point to it hitting near Morehead City and Beaufort, then heading through the Pamlico Sound with the OBX east of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The last few frames of the radar shows a slight eastward jog the last few frames. It looks like there will be some sort of landfall, but it may be closer to Cape Lookout. noticed that also. almost due eastward movement. not good, and eye seems to be tightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 Tornadoes look like they are going to be a big threat, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I am not shocked to see an eastward jog with this storm. When it was 50 miles below where I am, I thought there was a chance it could bend west, but it went hard east near the coast line. It appears it will do something similar now along Atlantic Beach, but it is a little stronger than when it passed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The last few frames of the radar shows a slight eastward jog the last few frames. It looks like there will be some sort of landfall, but it may be closer to Cape Lookout. the eye is a hot mess and I am not sure if that is the actual movement of the eye or not...... the north edge of the center seems to be trying to push north and the area that is clear may actually dry air being forced out of the center......and a new center is clearing out above it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 ...10 PM POSITION UPDATE... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA SOON... NOAA BUOY 41036 RECENTLY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 67 MPH...108 KM /H...WITH A GUST TO 87 MPH...140 KM/H. SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 76.9W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The last few frames of the radar shows a slight eastward jog the last few frames. It looks like there will be some sort of landfall, but it may be closer to Cape Lookout. Maybe it's the oblong shape playing tricks on you or the fact that I said Beaufort this morning and I'm hoping it's not Cape Lookout? Heck even if it is Cape Lookout it's still a win for the HWRF IMO...and a loss for a ton of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Reports on Twitter of wind gusts of 72 mph in Beaufort right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Reports on Twitter of wind gusts of 72 mph in Beaufort right now. On the last pass the plane dropped a sonde right off Cape Lookout SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 81 knots (~ 93.1 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Eye is fully closed off now. L. Eye Character: Closed M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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