downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looking like there is a good chance that Emerald Isle is going to take this one square on... the island is 25 miles long so the eastern end will be the worst around Atlantic Beach and Morehead City/Beaufort and then on the other end of the island Swansboro/Emerald Isle on the western end of the eyewall. The east then back west trend seems to be continuing and with a well vertically stacked system up to 200 mb its not ( well it shouldn't anyways) prone to huge sudden direction changes......so we should see this stair stepping of the center especially as the storms rotate around the center. Locally for me they have upped my high wind forecast to 45-50 in gust but you never really know what to expect...I will be anywhere from 40-60 miles from the center unless it takes a well left of track path from here on out..... A lot of times these systems will do that odd little jog around Cape Fear but I think as the stronger eyewall rotates around we will see a more northerly track again for awhile..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looking like there is a good chance that Emerald Isle is going to take this one square on... the island is 25 miles long so the eastern end will be the worst around Atlantic Beach and Morehead City/Beaufort and then on the other end of the island Swansboro/Emerald Isle on the western end of the eyewall. The east then back west trend seems to be continuing and with a well vertically stacked system up to 200 mb its not ( well it shouldn't anyways) prone to huge sudden direction changes......so we should see this stair stepping of the center especially as the storms rotate around the center. Locally for me they have upped my high wind forecast to 45-50 in gust but you never really know what to expect...I will be anywhere from 40-60 miles from the center unless it takes a well left of track path from here on out..... A lot of times these systems will do that odd little jog around Cape Fear but I think as the stronger eyewall rotates around we will see a more northerly track again for awhile..... it does look like it just curled around the Cape doesn't it? heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The radar is pretty cool looking right now, with the eye firmly in view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Keep this link for later. TVN has 4 chasers with cams on Hatteras Island and 1 more on the way. Should be fun to watch. http://tvnweather.com/live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This thing aint getting to Cat 3 before landfall. It'll be lucky to sniff Cat 2 at this point. The official NHC forecast brings it to 100mph (solid Cat 2)..... Cat 3 is within the realm of possibilities but it's not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Meanwhile....inland, i can tell you firsthand what happens when feeder bands meet a strong cold front coming out of the mountains. I just drove back from stuart va and it is a disaster zone up there. Very heavy rain showers that moved west into the front and then exploded. Now it is pivoting and pushing back east. Havent seen that much rain that fast in a while. Some of these storms moving back east will rock the triad shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I'm really surprised how much rain is making inroads into East-central NC with a NNE moving coastal storm. It's not very often that a system paralleling the coast can get it's rain shield West of Hwy 17, let alone I-95. Looks like the cold front to the West is starting to surge Eastward as well, probably enhancing the NE movement of Arthur at the moment. For a while today, everything to the West had been pretty stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Reed Timmer posted this on Facebook.. Taken from the Towers twitter feed. Report from Frying Pan Tower !!! We just entered the eye of Arthur! Winds peaked at 99mph! NOAA Buoy #16 just slid past us heading towards the Wrightsville beaches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I'm really surprised how much rain is making inroads into East-central NC with a NNE moving coastal storm. It's not very often that a system paralleling the coast can get it's rain shield West of Hwy 17, let alone I-95. Looks like the cold front to the West is starting to surge Eastward as well, probably enhancing the NE movement of Arthur at the moment. For a while today, everything to the West had been pretty stationary. Eastward push probably aided by diurnal heating and mass downslope flow off the Appalachians. Wonder if that mesoscale-level momentum actually pushes Arthur a bit east of track (or whether it's just a temporary surge). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Just posted by my SIL North of Raleigh just off of Creedmore outside 540 -"Unbelievable. I came home from work to discover we actually have wind damage and Arthur is nowhere near us. A tree came down during a gusty period this afternoon and landed on the house - punched two holes in the roof." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Eastward push probably aided by diurnal heating and mass downslope flow off the Appalachians. Wonder if that mesoscale-level momentum actually pushes Arthur a bit east of track (or whether it's just a temporary surge). Already looks to be smoothing out the east trend and starting to see a bit more north in the track but the degree its moving north changes when I go from MHX to ILM radars since the earth is curved and all that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks much much better on radar than an hour or two ago. May have been some dry air on the west side trying to get into the storm. Eyewall is really strengthening on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 What on earth is that NOAA plane doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 What on earth is that NOAA plane doing? Checking data - trying to figure out if this isn't really September 3rd ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks much much better on radar than an hour or two ago. May have been some dry air on the west side trying to get into the storm. Eyewall is really strengthening on radar. agreed looks to be getting its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks much much better on radar than an hour or two ago. May have been some dry air on the west side trying to get into the storm. Eyewall is really strengthening on radar. Yep. This is the best the thing has looked the whole time. The sat and radar pix are looking good, though the cloud tops have warmed some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Pouring rain again - no wind this go 'round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Checking data - trying to figure out if this isn't really September 3rd ..... Heh yeah something must have broken they're heading back home. I guess it'll be about 90 minutes before we have another center fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 eyewall looks pretty impressive on radar now, looks like the friction with land is helping to tighten the circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Possibly misses everything wide right? If not a complete miss it sure doesn't appear anyone will get right front quadranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Possibly misses everything wide right? If not a complete miss it sure doesn't appear anyone will get right front quadranted. Its moving more NE than anything should hit Emerald Isle pretty much head on, here is the path it appears to be taking if you smooth out all the wobbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Still looks like Morehead City/Beaufort to me and across the Pamlico Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Have not been able to locate any damage reports from Wilmington area. It appears the immediate Wimington area is in good shape so far. There was tornado damage north of Wilmington in the Rose Hill area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Its moving more NE than anything should hit Emerald Isle pretty much head on, here is the path it appears to be taking if you smooth out all the wobbles Arthur.gif You don't think that will continue to drift a little Eastwards for more of an OBX hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 WRAL reporting homes in Duplin County were damaged by a possible tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wow that is nuts.....what time do you work until? I would expect for them to let you out early NC news storm tracker 12 showed a graphic w very high winds (hurricane force and above) from Hamsptead to Newbern to Kill devil hills and east Well, they finally let us go at 6:30 right when heavy band was moving thru. Got soaked running to my car. That said, I got .22 at my house out of the band with winds up to probably 30 mph. Right now it's light rain with winds of 10 to 15mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looking at the radar, looks like the storm is moving due NE and will probably come on shore between Morehead and Cape Lookout. Good news for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 You don't think that will continue to drift a little Eastwards for more of an OBX hit? It would be worse for the eye to track over emerald isle and give the barrier islands the ne quad, then for the eye to hit the barrier islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 You don't think that will continue to drift a little Eastwards for more of an OBX hit? The OBX gonna get hit no matter what really....its hard to tell exactly how east its going with the eye constantly ragging out and reforming and its a rather large center so anywhere from Swansboro to Lookout is going to get the "inner" core of this thing....Cape Lookout will most likely post the top winds recorded with this one unless it tightens up over the sound some from land interaction..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 This buoy getting into the eastern eyewall now the next hr or so for it should see some decent numbers http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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