Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah a little late with that warning as it looks to have already lifted per velocity. To be fair I would imagine it's a little busy at NWS Wilmington right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 To be fair I would imagine it's a little busy at NWS Wilmington right now. Haha oh I am sure. I wasn't trying to criticizing, just pointing out that the rotation was gone. They are doing a great job imo, this is a tough storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Haha oh I am sure. I wasn't trying to criticizing, just pointing out that the rotation was gone. They are doing a great job imo, this is a tough storm. Oh I know, I was just imagining all of the calls they must be receiving about why the area isn't under a hurricane warning in addition to dealing with all of the storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 40-50 mph winds right now with higher gust at Oak Island. Surf remains very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 40-50 mph winds right now with higher gust at Oak Island. Surf remains very high. Hang tight man! You are in for some fun in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Buoys to watch Onslow Bay ( already gusting to 45 ) http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41036 Wrightsville offshore http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41037 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 974 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 really looks like its begun its NE jog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 really looks like its begun its NE jog I don't see it really its kind just moving north, since the eye shape is constantly changing it make it hard to tell what the actual motion is but overall its maybe a hair east of due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 really looks like its begun its NE jog 34 miles due south of Bald Head Island. If it's going to go NE and miss it better turn now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 5pm cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Need to watch those storms rotating in from Jacksonville to Morehead/Beaufort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I think it'll still get to a Cat. 2, but 95 mph might be all it can muster at this point. It's running out of time to get it's act together. Yup... It's been battling dry air for a long time. Like you said, it's running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 crazy that this is a cat 1.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-rbtop-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Need to watch those storms rotating in from Jacksonville to Morehead/Beaufort Yeah area near Keanansville may need some attention. Also eye on the cell NE of Dover, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Although the models still remain in good agreement on the track of Arthur during the next couple of days, there has been a westward shift this cycle. The new NHC track has been shifted westward and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models through 36 hours. The updated track now shows landfall in eastern North Carolina or the Outer Banks later tonight. Beyond 36 hours, the NHC track has been adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not as far west as the GFS and ECMWF model trackers. While in most cases this westward shift in the track will be immaterial to impacts, it does mean that the hurricane's strongest winds are now more likely to be experienced along the Outer Banks, rather than remain offshore. NHC public advisories will be issued every two hours beginning at 7 pm EDT this evening and Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued on the hour between each Public Advisory to provide hourly position updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I don't see it really its kind just moving north, since the eye shape is constantly changing it make it hard to tell what the actual motion is but overall its maybe a hair east of due north I dunno. I'm seeing a good bit of NE movement from 1630-1710. Further west than they were expecting, but its not moving straight North anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 crazy that this is a cat 1.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-rbtop-long.html Yes, it looks like at least a two in that loop. Looks to get awful close to bald head island with perhaps just skirting it. Every wobble will matter from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This is pretty much the worst case scenario for Hatteras Island, especially the delicate area in the Pea Island Refuge.....I can't imagine a scenario at this point where Hwy 12 is passable after this storm. Waves/Rodanthe/Salvo are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Radar shows a clear movement east by the storm. Eye should miss Bald Head Island. In OKI 30-40 mph sustained winds with gust up to 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wait...is cape fear not under hurricane warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This is pretty much the worst case scenario for Hatteras Island, especially the delicate area in the Pea Island Refuge.....I can't imagine a scenario at this point where Hwy 12 is passable after this storm. Waves/Rodanthe/Salvo are in trouble. The size of the storm and the time it spends impacting an area definitely matters with the surge (size more for the initial coastal surge, time more for sound/interior regions) so hopefully with it being rather compact and moving quickly the flooding won't be as bad as it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Radar shows a clear movement east by the storm. Eye should miss Bald Head Island. In OKI 30-40 mph sustained winds with gust up to 60 mph. Yup, in the last loop that I saw you can CLEARLY see it dash pretty much straight East. Good news for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wait...is cape fear not under hurricane warning? Nope, it starts at Surf City. I'm sure the NHC will come up with some explanation about wind radii and the like but basically it looks like they just didn't want to get egg on their face by throwing one up at the last minute. When the eye of a 90mph hurricane is 30 miles offshore a hurricane warning needs to be up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wait...is cape fear not under hurricane warning? It is not. The western extent of hurricane warnings begin at Surf City, NC, which is 60 miles up the coast from Cape Fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 looks like the eyewall is getting its act together again in the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Bald Head Island and its residents have spent millions in the past few years countering beach erosion. You gotta believe this will pretty much wash away those efforts completely. The far south tip of the island used to flood under high tide before they stepped in. This could be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 looks like the eyewall is getting its act together again in the last few frames With its eastern jog allowing it to get back out into warm waters and getting more moisture to it, thats believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Bald Head Island and its residents have spent millions in the past few years countering beach erosion. You gotta believe this will pretty much wash away those efforts completely. The far south tip of the island used to flood under high tide before they stepped in. This could be a problem.If that is true, it was money pretty unwisely spent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 With its eastern jog allowing it to get back out into warm waters and getting more moisture to it, thats believable. That eastern jog is incredible. Bald Head Island might miss the eyewall by like 5 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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