Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Eyewall really lighting up on radar, Wilmington is about to get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I know I'll get laughed at for this, but anyone else getting Fran vibes? Not as strong, and coming from a very different place, so I'm not saying this is Fran part deux. But, a reluctance to recurve with ILM in the crosshairs as well as when it is hitting -- late Thursday, early Friday. The first rains even hit Raleigh at about 2p, exactly when they hit on the Thursday Fran hit. Of course the final track will be different as well -- Fran actually veered NNW when it was expected to go NNE, this one is clearly (eventually) going to veer NNE-NE-ENE. (And, before anyone asks, I'm not the met Big Weather. =)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like all the models have OBX on the east side of the eye. Coming in still around Morehead City/Beaufort area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I have a friend who's living in Morehead city over the summer and is staying against my advice-how bad do you guys think it could get there with the eye passing so close? Also, as a point of curiosity, what will happen if the storms from Arthur currently moving through the Triad survive long enough to interact with the incoming front over the mountains? Well if the storm keeps deepening they better be ready for a few days of no power and water at the very least...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Getting ready for eye wall here at Oak Island. Here is a video from around one-two hour ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like all the models have OBX on the east side of the eye. Coming in still around Morehead City/Beaufort area. Yeah, this seems the most likely. While I appreciate the rain in the Raleigh area that this path may have facilitated I'm bummed as my parents are in Sneads Ferry (right across the ICW from Topsail Island). My dad is great at preparing for storms and is a huge weather follower so they should be fine, but I always get a little nervous. Not their first rodeo, though, having moved there in 2001 but he lived on eastern Long Island and also Louisiana so has dealt with these his whole life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I know I'll get laughed at for this, but anyone else getting Fran vibes? Not as strong, and coming from a very different place, so I'm not saying this is Fran part deux. But, a reluctance to recurve with ILM in the crosshairs as well as when it is hitting -- late Thursday, early Friday. The first rains even hit Raleigh at about 2p, exactly when they hit on the Thursday Fran hit. Of course the final track will be different as well -- Fran actually veered NNW when it was expected to go NNE, this one is clearly (eventually) going to veer NNE-NE-ENE. (And, before anyone asks, I'm not the met Big Weather. =)) No not at all I mentioned that earlier with one of the visible images someone posted, definitely a Fran vibe with this especially with it coming close to Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 just hoping that Ocean Isle is left in one piece. Supposed to go down there next weekend for a week. Praying for everyone thats down there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Eyewall really lighting up on radar, Wilmington is about to get rocked. check out the tops around the eye, intensifying for sure this loop is ~ 1 hour http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-77&info=ir&quality=100&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&numframes=10&palette=ir2.pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like all the models have OBX on the east side of the eye. Coming in still around Morehead City/Beaufort area. Hard to imagine this going east of Ocracoke....but models do have it heading due NE in a few hours, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Johnny Mercer Pier gusting into the 50's eyewall not there yet either http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=jmpn7 This is where Wxjordan is roughly http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ocpn7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I was going to head down to Emerald Isle with a buddy, has a beach house with a beach view...can't make it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I have a friend who's living in Morehead city over the summer and is staying against my advice-how bad do you guys think it could get there with the eye passing so close? Also, as a point of curiosity, what will happen if the storms from Arthur currently moving through the Triad survive long enough to interact with the incoming front over the mountains? Your friend will be fine. Morehead is very accustomed to dealing with cat 1-2 hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Sitting here at Myrtle beach with gusts near 50 but sustain 20-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This thing aint getting to Cat 3 before landfall. It'll be lucky to sniff Cat 2 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Cams from Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, and Wrightsville are all good right now. http://www.surfchex.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Funny how different products can give a different sense of direction of movement. That imagery definitely shows more pronounced eastward movement than the radar imagery. But yeah...looks like this one may be intensifying right up until landfall. check out the tops around the eye, intensifying for sure this loop is ~ 1 hour http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-77&info=ir&quality=100&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&numframes=10&palette=ir2.pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This thing aint getting to Cat 3 before landfall. It'll be lucky to sniff Cat 2 at this point. I think it'll still get to a Cat. 2, but 95 mph might be all it can muster at this point. It's running out of time to get it's act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Intense cloud to ground lightning here in Jacksonville, rotation showing up offshore about to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It's already a low/moderate Cat-2 per recon... Being this close to land, the constant dry air intrusion, and with only a few hours left to gain 8-14 knots it probably won't become a Cat-3... But I'd say it's definitely going to be a cat-2 at landfall around Morehead City, or potentially further south given the radar/sat trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Sitting here at Myrtle beach with gusts near 50 but sustain 20-30 you tucked in like a baby in bed @ Myrtle beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Tornado warning for Duplin county, just to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Nice rotation on the tor warned cell east of Wallace, NC. Wouldn't be surprised if there was ground truth to that. edit: also a small bit of rotation just SW of Wallace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 you tucked in like a baby in bed @ Myrtle beach! nope getting ready to go to pool after back to ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Nice rotation on the tor warned cell east of Wallace, NC. Wouldn't be surprised if there was ground truth to that.Why does the storm near Atkinson not have a tornado warning to the SW of that other warned storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Cell SE of Atkinson could also use a warning imo. Nice rotation in the outer bands with this one. Edit: Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 TOG with the Atkinson cell. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 421 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN PENDER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA * UNTIL 445 PM EDT * AT 419 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR ROOKS...OR 14 MILES WEST OF BURGAW...MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... ROWAN... LAGOON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 TOG with the Atkinson cell. Yeah a little late with that warning as it looks to have already lifted per velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Tornado warnings are popping up all around me and the wind is definitely picking up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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