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Hurricane Arthur


Brick Tamland

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Yeah my bad, misread the sounding and forgot to correct.

It's all good I bet they find something lower on another pass. I was corrected when I posted the same thing on facebook.

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Going to be a pretty big bust on the NHC part if this thing comes in Onslow Bay and landfalls on Bogue Banks headed NNE into eastern NC......that's why I expect that ENE turn to commence anytime now they are rarely wrong in this time frame by that much......

I disagree. They've been in every cone I've seen and will have been under a warning for over 24 hours. I think people didn't want to take this storm seriously because of the holiday weekend timing but you can't really blame the nhc for that.

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Going to be a pretty big bust on the NHC part if this thing comes in Onslow Bay and landfalls on Bogue Banks headed NNE into eastern NC......that's why I expect that ENE turn to commence anytime now they are rarely wrong in this time frame by that much......

my sweetspot has been Beaufort and my model of choice has been HWRF since it got its act together (basically since Arthur was TD1) it has been on point with track and I don't recall an OTS track. Other models, you name them, GFDL/Euro/GFS/NAM/CMC, every model has gone out to sea several runs in a row. Not the HWRF. If it has, I don't recall it. I've seen little to no support from mets for the HWRF but I see them posting RPM screenshots, which is the WRF-NMM (or the WRF-ARW) depending which one your in-house uses, which has a LOWER skill set for hurricanes (which is why the HWRF was developed). I don't get it. We'll see. I think the NHC keeps shifting the track west, and landfall is Beaufort or slightly east near Cape lookout.

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Extreme rain and wind around 20-30 mph at Oak Island NC at the moment.

 

If there is no major shift in the current track you should get raked pretty good by the western edge of the eyewall might get some gust to hurricane force even if it can get close enough....

 

 

I disagree. They've been in every cone I've seen and will have been under a warning for over 24 hours. I think people didn't want to take this storm seriously because of the holiday weekend timing but you can't really blame the nhc for that.

 

I dunno the NHC has really resisted any west trend in their forecast track and have been at the far east side of all model guidance, that said they still may have it right and this thing will hook right and skirt the Capes so I am not trying to blame them or say the NHC is wrong......but if it does go in Onslow Bay like a lot of model guidance then I still think from a forecasting standpoint that's a pretty big miss in track for the time frame we are in ( less than 24 hrs heck almost less than 12 hrs)

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Tornado Warning North of Southport. Had a feeling that was coming by watching the velocity scans the past 30 minutes.

This is what I'm concerned about the most is the rapid strengthened. This will increase the likelihood of wind shear, instability, and air-land friction which heightens the tornado and tornadic waterspout risk.

I'm looking for a 12-hour tornado watch to be issued soon for the entire coastline of NC.

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Well I found out that I am expected at work this afternoon. I work at Cherry Point. Kind of surprised since the storm is so close. I guess I will be driving home in the hurricane. Currently it is breezy and very humid but no rain so far. Local mets are calling for 4 to 6 inches for us and winds up to 65mph in gusts. I just hope we don't lose power like we did for Irene.

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Well I found out that I am expected at work this afternoon. I work at Cherry Point. Kind of surprised since the storm is so close. I guess I will be driving home in the hurricane. Currently it is breezy and very humid but no rain so far. Local mets are calling for 4 to 6 inches for us and winds up to 65mph in gusts. I just hope we don't lose power like we did for Irene.

Wow that is nuts.....what time do you work until? I would expect for them to let you out early

 

NC news storm tracker 12 showed a graphic w very high winds (hurricane force and above) from Hamsptead to Newbern to Kill devil hills and east

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Would not be shocked if a tornado watch is issued. Rain is very heavy when it comes by. I am uploading a video at the moment on YouTube, it is taking some time so do not expect it immediately, but I hope to have it published by 1:30 p.m.

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Yeah the mets on WRAL screwed this all up. The nonly rain we were suppose to get in Raleigh today was from the cold front yet we have bands from Arthur moving into Wake county now and its only going to increase. This thing hasnt moved as fast to the east as they expected. Even this morning Eliz Gardner said they are still waiting for this thing to make the turn.

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TOR Watch has 60/40 probs

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 390

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

125 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA

COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 125

PM UNTIL 200 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE

MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CAPE

HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH

SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 389...

DISCUSSION...RISK FOR SCTD SMALL SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LVL

MESOCYCLONES/POTENTIAL TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTN

THROUGH TNGT ALONG THE NC CST AS REGION IS GLANCED BY FAVORABLE NE

QUADRANT OF HRCN ARTHUR. AS THE HRCN CONTINUES NNEWD...ENVELOPE OF

DEEPER/MORE MOISTURE-RICH

WILL OVERSPREAD THE CST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOST

STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW-LVL WIND FIELD. GIVEN EXISTING DEGREE OF

LOW-LVL INSTABILITY ON NRN AND ERN SIDES OF ARTHUR /PER LIGHTNING

STRIKES/...CONVERGENT FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO SPAWN SHOWERS/STORMS

CAPABLE OF WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 16045.

...CORFIDI

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post-141-0-30457700-1404409613_thumb.png

 

This might actually be a pretty good run the average track the last 6-8 hrs if continued would be along the black line I drew. Its tough to say but the above track would be a doozy as many inland people would see strong TS winds and hurricane gust and the OBX would get hammered.....

 

 

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