Jon Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Risk of tornadoes this PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah my bad, misread the sounding and forgot to correct. It's all good I bet they find something lower on another pass. I was corrected when I posted the same thing on facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like the general motion is still moving more north and west than northeast at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Going to be a pretty big bust on the NHC part if this thing comes in Onslow Bay and landfalls on Bogue Banks headed NNE into eastern NC......that's why I expect that ENE turn to commence anytime now they are rarely wrong in this time frame by that much...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 WRAL saying the Triangle could have some strong storms as Arthur moves up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Tornado Warning North of Southport. Had a feeling that was coming by watching the velocity scans the past 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Going to be a pretty big bust on the NHC part if this thing comes in Onslow Bay and landfalls on Bogue Banks headed NNE into eastern NC......that's why I expect that ENE turn to commence anytime now they are rarely wrong in this time frame by that much...... I disagree. They've been in every cone I've seen and will have been under a warning for over 24 hours. I think people didn't want to take this storm seriously because of the holiday weekend timing but you can't really blame the nhc for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Going to be a pretty big bust on the NHC part if this thing comes in Onslow Bay and landfalls on Bogue Banks headed NNE into eastern NC......that's why I expect that ENE turn to commence anytime now they are rarely wrong in this time frame by that much...... my sweetspot has been Beaufort and my model of choice has been HWRF since it got its act together (basically since Arthur was TD1) it has been on point with track and I don't recall an OTS track. Other models, you name them, GFDL/Euro/GFS/NAM/CMC, every model has gone out to sea several runs in a row. Not the HWRF. If it has, I don't recall it. I've seen little to no support from mets for the HWRF but I see them posting RPM screenshots, which is the WRF-NMM (or the WRF-ARW) depending which one your in-house uses, which has a LOWER skill set for hurricanes (which is why the HWRF was developed). I don't get it. We'll see. I think the NHC keeps shifting the track west, and landfall is Beaufort or slightly east near Cape lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Everyone seems to focus on center of track but at least Wilmington has been in the cone for days...but no hurricane warning up for Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Extreme rain and wind around 20-30 mph at Oak Island NC at the moment. If there is no major shift in the current track you should get raked pretty good by the western edge of the eyewall might get some gust to hurricane force even if it can get close enough.... I disagree. They've been in every cone I've seen and will have been under a warning for over 24 hours. I think people didn't want to take this storm seriously because of the holiday weekend timing but you can't really blame the nhc for that. I dunno the NHC has really resisted any west trend in their forecast track and have been at the far east side of all model guidance, that said they still may have it right and this thing will hook right and skirt the Capes so I am not trying to blame them or say the NHC is wrong......but if it does go in Onslow Bay like a lot of model guidance then I still think from a forecasting standpoint that's a pretty big miss in track for the time frame we are in ( less than 24 hrs heck almost less than 12 hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 FROM WRAL Elizabeth Gardner>>>"No specific prediction on landfall. The center of the storm will come very close to Wilmington around dinner time. It will ride up the coast and will either brush the coast or the center will cross over the outer banks. It’s likely to move offshore by 6 or 7am." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 The 12z HWRF looks way more inland than forecasted now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Tornado Warning North of Southport. Had a feeling that was coming by watching the velocity scans the past 30 minutes. This is what I'm concerned about the most is the rapid strengthened. This will increase the likelihood of wind shear, instability, and air-land friction which heightens the tornado and tornadic waterspout risk. I'm looking for a 12-hour tornado watch to be issued soon for the entire coastline of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Well I found out that I am expected at work this afternoon. I work at Cherry Point. Kind of surprised since the storm is so close. I guess I will be driving home in the hurricane. Currently it is breezy and very humid but no rain so far. Local mets are calling for 4 to 6 inches for us and winds up to 65mph in gusts. I just hope we don't lose power like we did for Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Well I found out that I am expected at work this afternoon. I work at Cherry Point. Kind of surprised since the storm is so close. I guess I will be driving home in the hurricane. Currently it is breezy and very humid but no rain so far. Local mets are calling for 4 to 6 inches for us and winds up to 65mph in gusts. I just hope we don't lose power like we did for Irene. Wow that is nuts.....what time do you work until? I would expect for them to let you out early NC news storm tracker 12 showed a graphic w very high winds (hurricane force and above) from Hamsptead to Newbern to Kill devil hills and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Would not be shocked if a tornado watch is issued. Rain is very heavy when it comes by. I am uploading a video at the moment on YouTube, it is taking some time so do not expect it immediately, but I hope to have it published by 1:30 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Tornado warning fo Wrightville Beach/Seagate heading toward the Wilmington metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 I thought a TV station from Wilmington would be streaming, but nothing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 New tornado warning for New Hanover County until 1:30. Rotation is currently approaching UNCW campus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah the mets on WRAL screwed this all up. The nonly rain we were suppose to get in Raleigh today was from the cold front yet we have bands from Arthur moving into Wake county now and its only going to increase. This thing hasnt moved as fast to the east as they expected. Even this morning Eliz Gardner said they are still waiting for this thing to make the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Video I captured just before 1:00 p.m. at Oak Island, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Very windy here--- 35-45 ---- maybe 50+ gusts as a cluster of storms that broke off from the banding moves in. Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I think we are going to see a lot more of that today. Very windy here--- 35-45 ---- maybe 50+ gusts as a cluster of storms that broke off from the banding moves in. Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 TOR Watch has 60/40 probs SEL0 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 390 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 200 AM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 389... DISCUSSION...RISK FOR SCTD SMALL SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES/POTENTIAL TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT ALONG THE NC CST AS REGION IS GLANCED BY FAVORABLE NE QUADRANT OF HRCN ARTHUR. AS THE HRCN CONTINUES NNEWD...ENVELOPE OF DEEPER/MORE MOISTURE-RICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE CST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOST STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW-LVL WIND FIELD. GIVEN EXISTING DEGREE OF LOW-LVL INSTABILITY ON NRN AND ERN SIDES OF ARTHUR /PER LIGHTNING STRIKES/...CONVERGENT FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO SPAWN SHOWERS/STORMS CAPABLE OF WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 16045. ...CORFIDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This might actually be a pretty good run the average track the last 6-8 hrs if continued would be along the black line I drew. Its tough to say but the above track would be a doozy as many inland people would see strong TS winds and hurricane gust and the OBX would get hammered..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 That is a lot further inland than most people think it is going to be. I wonder how long the NHC and the mets wait to see if Arthur starts turning east until they sound the alarm for more folks inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Winds are picking up. I estimate 30-40 mph sustained at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Waiting here in Jacksonville, with it taking a more westward track could definitely put us in the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Nice gusts here in Brier Creek. I'd say 15-20MPH. No rain yet but radar shows its getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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