blueheronNC Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Well if anything the last few frames of the radar almost suggest a slightly west of north motion lol.....also the storms moving WEST in NC is odd you would think if a trough was coming in to push this thing east those storms wouldn't be doing that. Wilmington might end up getting it pretty bad Right, there's a line of curved showers/storms around the I-95/I-40 interchange, and the head of the parabola is due north of Arthur's center of circulation. That indicates to me that the flow envelope is still oriented due north-south. Normally when recurve is imminent, you'd see everything (especially outlier wx) tilted towards the east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 From the best I can make out, the Sat images appear to have an easterly component to the motion, but the radar animation looks almost due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Right, there's a line of curved showers/storms around the I-95/I-40 interchange, and the head of the parabola is due north of Arthur's center of circulation. That indicates to me that the flow envelope is still oriented due north-south. Normally when recurve is imminent, you'd see everything (especially outlier wx) tilted towards the east a bit. Right this thing might not turn much at all it seems to be moving more or less due north after a bit of a east jog So that begs the question at what point do you reckon the NHC has to entertain the thought they have the track off by maybe a bunch and adjust it accordingly......its a tough spot for them to be in but its getting to the point where its going to take a extremely sharp turn to verify their current track and avoid a non forecasted landfall on mainland NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 The models have been showing landfall near Morehead City and Beufort for a while. What makes the NHC think it's going to go east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The models have been showing landfall near Morehead City and Beufort for a while. What makes the NHC think it's going to go east? They don't? Their latest track has it essentially making landfall at Cape Lookout and going along the Outer Banks until it goes back offshore at Hatteras. Cape Lookout is 10 miles ESE of Beaufort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Keep in mind that they don't adjust the track with intermediate advisories. I'd expect to see any corrections with the 11:00 advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 High oceans at Oak Island, NC. Winds are relatively light at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 95mph velocities showing up to NE of the center Darker blue is 95mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 95mph velocities showing up to NE of the center Darker blue is 95mph You mean NW? Nvm I see it now, lol. Actually I just realized what happened, I wasn't processing that the eye was so damn close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah velocity scan's really ramping up. Like other and I have stated this thing is really getting going. Those at the OBX and even Myrtle Beach are in store for a strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 95mph velocities showing up to NE of the center Darker blue is 95mph keep in mind though the beam height on that is 9,000 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 90 mph storm with 981mb at the surface @ 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 High oceans at Oak Island, NC. Winds are relatively light at the moment. Nice Swell Lines, looks like the wind is slightly offshore by spray off wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE LATEST MINUMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah, if it looks like I'm going to be in the NE quad of a cat 2+ I don't plan to stick around. My expectation is still that Morehead City will avoid the strongest winds, but it could be damn close. FYI- the Morehead City PD do not play around during storms. I went down from Durham to the coast and tracked Ophelia from Southport to Morehead City. Sitting in two different parking lots we were asked to leave the city. The said "Morehead City is closed." Both cops were nice, so just an FYI. Ophelia never made landfall stayed right off shore, and was just slightly weaker than Arthur will be tomorrow morning. Notwithstanding the cops Morehead city is a great place to track because it is protected by the ICW and Atlantic Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 High oceans at Oak Island, NC. Winds are relatively light at the moment. There are a lot of 40kt+ winds showing up in the velocity scan of the next inbound band for you. Should be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFTINDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENINGIS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TOBE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHCAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHTAND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115MILES...185 KM.THE LATEST MINUMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCEAIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. FYI- the Morehead City PD do not play around during storms. I went down from Durham to the coast and tracked Ophelia from Southport to Morehead City. Sitting in two different parking lots we were asked to leave the city. The said "Morehead City is closed." Both cops were nice, so just an FYI. Ophelia never made landfall stayed right off shore, and was just slightly weaker than Arthur will be tomorrow morning. Notwithstanding the cops Morehead city is a great place to track because it is protected by the ICW and Atlantic Beach. The Beaufort police checked me out during Irene. It was around 3am and I was sitting in a parking lot. We just chatted a bit, I told them I was one of those idiot storm chasers, but I thought I was smart enough to keep my sorry ass out of trouble. They laughed and told me to have a good night and be careful. I wished them an uneventful night and that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 976.7mb looks to be the lowest pressure reading in the eye per the recon flight that is currently ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Extreme rain and wind around 20-30 mph at Oak Island NC at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z GFS takes this in at Swansboro now (after actually crossing the tip of Cape Fear). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 FYI- the Morehead City PD do not play around during storms. I went down from Durham to the coast and tracked Ophelia from Southport to Morehead City. Sitting in two different parking lots we were asked to leave the city. The said "Morehead City is closed." Both cops were nice, so just an FYI. Ophelia never made landfall stayed right off shore, and was just slightly weaker than Arthur will be tomorrow morning. Notwithstanding the cops Morehead city is a great place to track because it is protected by the ICW and Atlantic Beach. Thanks for the heads up on that. I'm considering moving more inland (maybe Havelock?) if it really looks like the NE eyewall moves onshore Morehead. It seems to be moving more NE on radar now, so maybe it's finally making the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Thanks for the heads up on that. I'm considering moving more inland (maybe Havelock?) if it really looks like the NE eyewall moves onshore Morehead. It seems to be moving more NE on radar now, so maybe it's finally making the turn. Morehead City is quite protected. I wouldn't be too concerned about staying there if you can find a sheltered place to ride out the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 My uncle lives in downtown Beaufort on the waterfront. I spoke with him a minute ago. He will send pictures as things develop. He's 84 years old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 My uncle lives in downtown Beaufort on the waterfront. I spoke with him a minute ago. He will send pictures as things develope. He's 84 years old. Good. He's young enough to get out there and get some good pics. A man after my own heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Good. He's young enough to get out there and get some good pics. A man after my own heart. If I didn't have guests (Bob and Judy) this weekend I would hit you up to head that way. He's got a 6 cyl Cat diesel generator in the back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 If I didn't have guests (Bob and Judy) this weekend I would hit you up to head that way. He's got a 6 cyl Cat diesel generator in the back yard. Damn. I'd jump on that. Say hello to Bob and Judy for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Still very little east motion on the ILM radar loop Oak Island obs starting to pick up http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ocpn7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 976.7mb looks to be the lowest pressure reading in the eye per the recon flight that is currently ongoing. that's extrapolated though, 980 is offical, we'll see what they find in this second pass. Hopefully a dropsonde finds something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wrightsville Beach Webcam. People still soaking up the rays.... http://www.surfchex.com/index.php Carolina Beach: http://www.surfchex.com/carolina-beach-web-cam.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 that's extrapolated though, 980 is offical, we'll see what they find in this second pass. Hopefully a dropsonde finds something good. Yeah my bad, misread the sounding and forgot to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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