Brick Tamland Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Looks like things could get interesting off the coast next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Things already are interesting. Change the name of the thread to invest 91l. It's not just the Carolinas that "may" be impacted. It may stall near FL and potentially cause some problems for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:A broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles southeastof the coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganizedshowers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expectedto remain conducive for gradual development of this system whileit drifts southward offshore of Georgia and northeastern Floridaduring the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunteraircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Sunday afternoon,if necessary.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.Forecaster Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 800 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A low pressure system located about 230 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves slowly southward. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and proximity to dry air to the north of the disturbance could inhibit formation of a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of this system while it drifts southward and meanders offshore of the Florida east coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Dry air seems to be hindering this system a tad bit but the models still all have this thing near or at hurricane strength in a few days north of the Bahamas.....latest Euro keeps it offshore the OBX but its close enough that it wouldn't take much to get it in over eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Looks pretty organized on the early vis loops this morning, should look really good by this afternoon as the shear relaxs and it moves further south.....this will be a named system and it is going to get really close to Florida and NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Well they canceled recon for this afternoon, kind odd since it most likely is a TD right now if they can locate a LLC, going to be fun to watch the next 3-5 days could be a big party pooper for 4th of July beach weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Stole this from the main thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Dang it! I just left kure beach. That would have been awesome! One thing I did note is that there is a ton of construction going on there as well as a bunch of older homes ready to be demolished. A lesser storm could do a lot of material damage there right now. Minimal dune protection as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Before we freak out, this is the same HWRF model that was suggesting a landfall on Louisiana yesterday in additional to being a weenie model historically. However, and it's a big however, this model did pretty decent with couple of EPAC storms this year. I think we'll have to see if 91L can build up onto its structure over the next 24 hours before even considering its potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Before we freak out, this is the same HWRF model that was suggesting a landfall on Louisiana yesterday in additional to being a weenie model historically. However, and it's a big however, this model did pretty decent with couple of EPAC storms this year. I think we'll have to see if 91L can build up onto its structure over the next 24 hours before even considering its potential. Oh trust me I don't really give it much weight but it is inline with a lot of the other model guidance.......and it is most likely overdone at Cat 2 but this thing if it does form is going to give folks all up the east coast a headache this holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Dang it! I just left kure beach. That would have been awesome! One thing I did note is that there is a ton of construction going on there as well as a bunch of older homes ready to be demolished. A lesser storm could do a lot of material damage there right now. Minimal dune protection as well. Just got to KB today and will be here for 2 weeks! Bring it on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Just got to KB today and will be here for 2 weeks! Bring it on!! If your on the ocean you don't want this since they will not let you stay if it comes this way as a cane since they will most likely do mandatory evacs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Oh trust me I don't really give it much weight but it is inline with a lot of the other model guidance.......and it is most likely overdone at Cat 2 but this thing if it does form is going to give folks all up the east coast a headache this holiday weekend. I know some of y'all know what's the deal is, but there's always people lurking on this website Just got to KB today and will be here for 2 weeks! Bring it on!! Was just in Carolina Beach myself Thursday. That and Kure Beach will suffer major damage from even a Category 1, I believe. Just be careful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Before we freak out, this is the same HWRF model that was suggesting a landfall on Louisiana yesterday in additional to being a weenie model historically. However, and it's a big however, this model did pretty decent with couple of EPAC storms this year. I think we'll have to see if 91L can build up onto its structure over the next 24 hours before even considering its potential. Oh trust me I don't really give it much weight but it is inline with a lot of the other model guidance.......and it is most likely overdone at Cat 2 but this thing if it does form is going to give folks all up the east coast a headache this holiday weekend. I was just interested in that the HWRF was the furthest west model and from 12z to 18z it made quite a jump in track and intensity. Interesting for sure. I'd go with an OTS/hug the coast track, though, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 If your on the ocean you don't want this since they will not let you stay if it comes this way as a cane since they will most likely do mandatory evacs.... A hundred yards or so in from the beach...in Seawatch. You're probably right though, half of me wants to see a storm up front, the other half just wants to enjoy vacation. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I was just interested in that the HWRF was the furthest west model and from 12z to 18z it made quite a jump in track and intensity. Interesting for sure. I'd go with an OTS/hug the coast track, though, of course. Yup...OTS/coastal hugger is definitely the way to go. It will be hard for this one to track very far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 A hundred yards or so in from the beach...in Seawatch. You're probably right though, half of me wants to see a storm up front, the other half just wants to enjoy vacation. We'll see... Keep in mind now a days mandatory is mandatory they pull the trigger on that and its hrs of traffic jams for you especially if you are not the owner....so you need to really hope this goes away....... The models will be all over the place I think as they differ in the strength and timing of the trough next week......so expect lots of changes but there is already a far amount of agreement in the overall evolution of the system it does seem rather likely to at least threaten the SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yup...OTS/coastal hugger is definitely the way to go. It will be hard for this one to track very far inland. Agree anything west of I-95 would be surprising in this setup......that said IF the trough tugs it north then leaves it behind and then the ridge builds back in above it we could see a turn to the NW some which could mean more inland areas get in on it the act at least in the rainfall dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Selfishly, I hope it stays away from the OBX. That is my favorite place to be in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Keep in mind now a days mandatory is mandatory they pull the trigger on that and its hrs of traffic jams for you especially if you are not the owner....so you need to really hope this goes away....... The models will be all over the place I think as they differ in the strength and timing of the trough next week......so expect lots of changes but there is already a far amount of agreement in the overall evolution of the system it does seem rather likely to at least threaten the SE... Let's not forget it's about 15 miles between Kure Beach to Interstate 40 via one 2 lanes road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Selfishly, I hope it stays away from the OBX. That is my favorite place to be in NC. Naw, OBX could use some more storm modification. It's on the verge of forming some new inlets and Hwy 12 and the Bonner Bridge are begging for more DOT money. BTW, someone with EMS will have to make a decision soon regarding closing the area to tourists or not. It would be a nightmare to try to evacuate all the 4th of July visitors at the last minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 What is a Souhteast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 What is a Souhteast? It's a direction 180 degrees opposite of Norhteast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 It's a direction 180 degrees opposite of Norhteast. Near Dim-souht? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Let's not forget it's about 15 miles between Kure Beach to Interstate 40 via one 2 lanes road. Thanks guys...we do own the house and will make a call as we get closer. Kinda hoping it will skirt the OBX as a TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Thanks guys...we do own the house and will make a call as we get closer. Kinda hoping it will skirt the OBX as a TSThat's only if it ever makes it there. Pressure is dropping, but it's still struggling to develop convection despite the very favorable conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Model Track Distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 nchighcountrywx, on 30 Jun 2014 - 09:07 AM, said: Model Track Distribution What's the link to this site? I seem to have lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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