Mitchell Gaines Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 The 12z ECMWF is really going wild developing and sending a tropical system up the east coast for the holiday weekend. There is also a predecessor heavy rainfall event ahead of it. However there was little ensemble support today. Please post more here on this tropical threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Looks like last night's Euro has the front coming through on the 4th with the low passing OTS on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 12Z Euro planning us a back yard barbecue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 0z GFS has a delmarva firecracker on the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 0z GFS has a delmarva firecracker on the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Definitely seeing day-night OP EC trend here. The day are further west than the night runs. So far today's run is west of the 00z through 78 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Definitely seeing day-night OP EC trend here. The day are further west than the night runs. So far today's run is west of the 00z through 78 hr. Is the Euro keying on a stronger Atlantic high pressure than other models to create the more westerly track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 wow...still no posts here today? section should either be merged with NYC area....or dropped off completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 wow...still no posts here today? section should either be merged with NYC area....or dropped off completely. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Doing a quick check I couldn't find any information relating to this, but when was the last time this area was affected by a tropical system in July? Seems relatively rare, if it in fact comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Doing a quick check I couldn't find any information relating to this, but when was the last time this area was affected by a tropical system in July? Seems relatively rare, if it in fact comes to pass. Bertha in July 1996 moved over the region as a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Bertha in July 1996 moved over the region as a tropical storm. Thanks for the reply - I would say that qualifies as relatively rare. With the projected path it's looking like most of the effect here (inland anyway) could be some enhancement to frontal boundary rainfall. Could even be cleared out by Friday afternoon - night, although I imagine some fireworks displays will be rescheduled. We shall see, and interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Meso already. Watch incoming. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1252.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NY...VT...WRN MA/CT...CENTRAL/ERN PA...NRN/CENTRAL NJ...AND NRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 021428Z - 021530Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A SECOND UPSTREAM WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH LOWER MI/NRN IND. AN ATTENDANT BAND OF 50-60 KT SWLY 500 MB WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO SRN QUEBEC PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...WITH THESE WINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE DAY AND SHIFT SOMEWHAT EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ENHANCING BULK SHEAR. MOSAIC RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED CU/TCU AND A FEW CB DEVELOPMENT ALREADY UNDERWAY FROM WRN/CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...GIVEN ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING PER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED. THIS IS CONFIRMED PER MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE TEMP/ DEWPOINT SHOWING NO INHIBITION AND MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG. DESPITE VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH THE AIR MASS BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS FAVORING LINE SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRANSIENT ROTATING STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45 KT FROM NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER NWD THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Thanks for the reply - I would say that qualifies as relatively rare. With the projected path it's looking like most of the effect here (inland anyway) could be some enhancement to frontal boundary rainfall. Could even be cleared out by Friday afternoon - night, although I imagine some fireworks displays will be rescheduled. We shall see, and interesting nonetheless. Even more rare was Agnes on June 22 1972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 nonstop thunder the last 20 minutes. incoming.. [QUOTE]BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ134 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 230 PM EDT* AT 132 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR POCONO PINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... TOBYHANNA AND GOULSBORO STATE PARK AROUND 140 PM EDT... MOUNT POCONO AND TOBYHANNA AROUND 145 PM EDT... PARADISE VALLEY AND HERNYVILLE AROUND 150 PM EDT... MOUNTAINHOME AND CANADENSIS AROUND 155 PM EDT... SKYTOP AROUND 200 PM EDT...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WINDS OF MORE THAN 57 MPH...OR HAIL ONEINCH OR LARGER.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDTWEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A SEVERETHUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAYEVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY ANDSOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.[/QUOTE] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Even more rare was Agnes on June 22 1972 Yeah that one was a boatload of rain wasn't it? If this one brushed North Carolina as a hurricane, we'll exceed last years total (0.0) of land falling hurricanes (Atlantic). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Arthur may have the best satlellite representation of a 70 mph storm I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Cental Bucks is getting some heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Thunder/lightning kicking in as of 8:11pm...nice stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Rainbands coming through, Arthur is a cool storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Interesting that the global models (Euro, GFS and CMC) were more accurate in that Arthur's track was moved slightly west of theNHC models allowing rain bands to get into the sothern half of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Quality storm. Happy 4th everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 more people get excited about a 1010 L.P with the chance of snowflurries than a cat 1 just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Looks like the shore is getting hammered. Was it forecasted to be this bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Looks like the shore is getting hammered. Was it forecasted to be this bad? Don't know about hammered but it's been "stormy" for sure. My peak gust has been 39mph at 9:25am; peak 1-minute average 20.3mph at 9:27am. Lewes,DE, has had a peak gust of 45kts.(52mph) at 9;18am. It has rained very hard at times. My daily total at noon was 1.75"(aprx.); manual measurement will come later. It's still raining lightly. Wind graph for last 1/2 hour shows speed is decreasing. Haven't had a day like this in a long while! Nice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 more people get excited about a 1010 L.P with the chance of snowflurries than a cat 1 just offshore. They're likely pissed that the Fourth is not a hot and steamy day. Me, I like it this way, but we are in the minority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Good looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 more people get excited about a 1010 L.P with the chance of snowflurries than a cat 1 just offshore. I think most people around here are desensitized to tropical systems because we're so accustomed to them decaying beyond interest and/or skipping to the east. Personally I still find it fascinating. Plus a lot of posters are from inland Pennsylvania and offshore storms don't even bother them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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