SACRUS Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Way too late this year but was just back from a long road trip. Anyway here are the past 4th of July highs by site. We've had a nice stretch overall. Latest guidance yields temps in the 85 - 90 range and it looks dry after a sketchy 2/3rd. Year..14..13...12...11....10.....09.....08....07...06...05...04.....03.....02.....01....00...99...98...97...96...95...94...93 EWR:.76..91...97...92...101....83.....81....73...89...80...87.....94.....100....81....88...99...86...88...72...84...86...97 LGA:.74..91...95...88....98.....81.....80....73...92...82...83.....93.....98.....81....84...95...86...87...73...84...83...92 TTN:.75...84...88.....95....99.....81.....80....74...89...84...89.....92.....97.....82....87...99...85...84...73...81...83...92 JFK:..76....84....89.....86....101....83.....82....72...86...78...79.....92.....99.....75....81...97...82...89...74...80...83...96 NYC:.74...87.....92.....86....96.....79.....78....71...87...83...82.....92.....96.....79....84...96...84...85...71...84...86...95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I remember driving back from the Catskills to Brooklyn on July 4th 1966...it was 100 for the third straight day in some places around the city and some highways buckled in the heat...The following year we had heavy thunder storms and much cooler weather...The evening of July 4th 1981 had heavy thunder storms that washed out most of the fireworks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 2007 was a heinous and cloudy 4th all weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Looks like the models are continuing to slow down the cold front. Now it looks to push through the region early on the fourth rather than the day before. The good news is that the clouds will clear for the afternoon and evening leading to good firework activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 this just in from Upton : FOR NOW THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOW IT HANDLES THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG/NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS WEEK - SO HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN FAVOR OF A GFS/GEFS/CMC/00Z ECMWF BLEND. BASED ON THIS...EXPECT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO SATURDAY...AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO STAY TUNED. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 this just in from Upton : FOR NOW THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOW IT HANDLES THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG/NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS WEEK - SO HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN FAVOR OF A GFS/GEFS/CMC/00Z ECMWF BLEND. BASED ON THIS...EXPECT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO SATURDAY...AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO STAY TUNED. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY. Looking like it should clear up in time for the afternoon. Temps likely in the lower/mid 80s. The week mon - wed looks hot with heat peaking on wed ahead of the front. Park with the recent dryness should clip 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Timing of the front still a bit uncertain but a majority of guidance brings the front through between Friday morning and early afternoon. This should allow for a mainly dry 4th of July with temps in the low - mid 80s pending on timing and cloud cover. Any tropical system should remain offshore and likely cause some nice surf. 30 - 3rd looks quite toasty... projected highs 4th NYC: 80 EWR: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 First part of the day looks like rain, then clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Latest guidance continues to linger clouds and storms with the tropical system well offshore into the afternoon. Still think we dry out in time for the afternoon and not a complete washout. Still a few days to track the timing of the front. Until then hazy hot and humid this week. 4th of July weekend looks pretty nice too with temps near normal and mainly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Think this will help kick this whole thing East , I do think parts of Long Island may see the seasons best Thunderstorms with this system . There should be plenty of Southerly, tropical flow feeding into the front as it swing through . The pattern will push the main energy East of the area , But this is where Nassau and Suffolk Counties get storms to hold together . Meant for the Hurricane disco - put it in here in error . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Still expect any rain/showers ends by the afternoon and certainly in time for the fireworks. Clouds will likely yield highs around 80. Weekend still looks very nice as has been the trend this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Fireworks cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 There will be a tremendous beach danger for Saturday at least and Friday could be raw and showery for a good chunk of the day. I suspect we will have numerous rip current rescues this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 There will be a tremendous beach danger for Saturday at least and Friday could be raw and showery for a good chunk of the day. I suspect we will have numerous rip current rescues this weekend. If that position verifies the area will be in nearly an ideal position for squalls as they rotate onshore. Could be some spinners as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 If that position verifies the area will be in nearly an ideal position for squalls as they rotate onshore. Could be some spinners as well.Western outer bands aren't conductive for spinners at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Fireworks cancel? Expect it to work out that plot too would imply the rain is ending by 8pm with just minor shower. Unless launching fireworks from a fishing boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Western outer bands aren't conductive for spinners at all. Combination of southwest flow from the trough and the counter clockwise rotation of Arthur should produce decent verticle wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Expect it to work out that plot too would imply the rain is ending by 8pm with just minor shower. Unless launching fireworks from a fishing boat. Don't they launch the fireworks from a barge in NY harbor or is it all done from Liberty State Park? Would think that launching from a boat in those conditions would be less than ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Don't they launch the fireworks from a barge in NY harbor or is it all done from Liberty State Park? Would think that launching from a boat in those conditions would be less than ideal. Believe its from the brooklyn bridge this year. I wouldnt want to be out on the barges but id suspect the show goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We are underneath the right-entrance region of the upper-level jet on Friday. Which enhances more synoptic rainfall from Arthur farther north and west from the center: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Believe its from the brooklyn bridge this year. I wouldnt want to be out on the barges but id suspect the show goes on. Aren't the fireworks normally over the Statue of Liberty or did they change that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Aren't the fireworks normally over the Statue of Liberty or did they change that? It alternates - this year from the East River, last year was the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 It alternates - this year from the East River, last year was the Hudson. The fireworks were always on the east river. 5 years ago they moved it to the Hudson River for the anniversary of the Hudson River and kept it since. Now deblasio moved it back to the east river, however at my marina in jersey city, they are also doing a fireworks show just as big along with all day festivities. So you have two equally big shows. http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/05/28/jersey-city-planning-hudson-river-fireworks-on-july-4th/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Aside from the likely washout on Thu, the fourth of July should see rapidly improving conditions once into the afternoon. Rain looks to end west to east by the afternoon, and we may get some clearing by sunset with temps near 80. Fireworks look to go off without rain issues. Beautiful weekend shaping up Sat - Sunday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Aside from the likely washout on Thu, the fourth of July should see rapidly improving conditions once into the afternoon. Rain looks to end west to east by the afternoon, and we may get some clearing by sunset with temps near 80. Fireworks look to go off without rain issues. Beautiful weekend shaping up Sat - Sunday.. I agree..wind might be the bigger issue but probably not enough to affect the fireworks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 I still expect the brunt of rain and any storms is done by the afternoon and anything after 2-3pm (nj - nyc) is scattered and light. Id also think rapid clearing and drying out by sunset on the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I still expect the brunt of rain and any storms is done by the afternoon and anything after 2-3pm (nj - nyc) is scattered and light. Id also think rapid clearing and drying out by sunset on the 4th. Agree. Fireworks time should actually be pleasant and maybe downright cool with a northerly breeze and low humidity. Beautiful period tomorrow night-Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Fireworks shows dropping like flies now for tomorrow...I think believe it or not the culprit is more tonight's potential weather than the concern about tomorrow...apparently alot of these things they get the guys out to set up tonight so they can spend the day with their families tomorrow, if they have rain during that time they cannot set them up properly. There will be plenty of PO'd people tomorrow night when the weather is beautiful by 5 or 6pm...NYC may see a bigger influx of crowds now than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Fireworks shows dropping like flies now for tomorrow...I think believe it or not the culprit is more tonight's potential weather than the concern about tomorrow...apparently alot of these things they get the guys out to set up tonight so they can spend the day with their families tomorrow, if they have rain during that time they cannot set them up properly. There will be plenty of PO'd people tomorrow night when the weather is beautiful by 5 or 6pm...NYC may see a bigger influx of crowds now than normal.. Funny you say that. I just spoke to the crews at my marina setting up for tomorrow's all day festivities. They are pissed they have to be out there now setting up carnival rides for kids when it's going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The fireworks were always on the east river. 5 years ago they moved it to the Hudson River for the anniversary of the Hudson River and kept it since. Now deblasio moved it back to the east river, however at my marina in jersey city, they are also doing a fireworks show just as big along with all day festivities. So you have two equally big shows. http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/05/28/jersey-city-planning-hudson-river-fireworks-on-july-4th/ how late could i get there and still get a good spot for the fireworks in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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