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July 2014 General Discussion


snowlover2

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They've definitely had a top-shelf season out there.

 

But their overall climo sucks. The other shoe will drop, hopefully soon..

 

Yeah, the first part of their severe season wasn't great, it was especially bad in New England, where they had an overall cool to normal, dry start.

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Dew down to 72 and slowly dropping.  Still muggy but nothing compared to earlier.

 

Pretty disappointed by the lack of storms around here this evening.  Was hoping to head out and shoot some lightning.  Chicago hogging all the fun again lol.

Very few CG's, but tons of cloud-to-air lightning.

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There's still the matter of tonight (depending partially on cloud cover trends and evolution of the convection).

My point forecast calls for a low of 70*F.

There are numerous nights every summer that have lows above 70, the problem is that they get "cancelled out" the next night if the temp drops into the 60s prior to 1am EDT. It's very hard to find true overnight low temperatures for a given overnight period since we don't record low temperatures by overnights, but rather 24 hour periods that include parts of 2 nights.

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Two garden variety t storms here ne of Indy today, one at 5:30 am and then another nice metro area complex developed around 9 am after I had a brief moment of blue skies and sunshine.  No 90's would certainly be unusual for this area.  Flood warning now for Indy till 12:30 p.m. with 2.5 inches of rain reported at I-465 and U.S. 31 on the north side.

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Two garden variety t storms here ne of Indy today, one at 5:30 am and then another nice metro area complex developed around 9 am after I had a brief moment of blue skies and sunshine.  No 90's would certainly be unusual for this area.  Flood warning now for Indy till 12:30 p.m. with 2.5 inches of rain reported at I-465 and U.S. 31 on the north side.

 

Indy's weather has been killing it as of late compared to climo: almost five degrees below normal (which should feel nice to those who despise the heat) and now multiple thunderstorm complexes.

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Hope the DTW sensor was accurate (per Stebos comment) in maxing at 94F yesterday (DTW and the usual hot spot YIP were the maxes in SE MI) but regadless it was a solid 90F. It was intra-hour (90, 92, 90 hourly obs), but it would have been aggravating if it went like 85, 86, 87, 86 for hourly obs with a max of 90 lol. Detroit is now at just 2 on the year and with no more heat in sight, Id say its near a lock for a below normal year, barring a record 1953-esque end of summer heatwave.

 

Today, a cool September breeze was in the air...truly the perfect summer here with the dominance of pleasant days, a few very cool days and a few very warm days mixed in.

 

Totally random trivia- Was watching some old baseball clips on youtube. The 1971 All Star game was played 7-13-71 at Tiger Stadium. The announcers remarked that it was "very hot and windy" and the ball would carry, and then Reggie Jackson hit his infamous homer. So I checked the weather...and indeed it was 91F that day in Detroit..much like this year, that July featured only a very few hot days, its the 5th coldest July on record to this day, so I guess timing is everything.

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There are numerous nights every summer that have lows above 70, the problem is that they get "cancelled out" the next night if the temp drops into the 60s prior to 1am EDT. It's very hard to find true overnight low temperatures for a given overnight period since we don't record low temperatures by overnights, but rather 24 hour periods that include parts of 2 nights.

Yes, and there are likewise at least as many midnight high temps. But that happens every season, every year.

 

I was referring to the calendar day not having a low of 70F, so its a more than fair way to calculate it. 

 

Detroit will not have a low of 70F this July. Very rare for July, and imo WAY more impressive in the UHI age of warmer lows. Only 13 times has this happened since 1874, the coolest of which was 67F in 1920, 1984, & 2009. 

 

Since 1874...Julys with no 70F+ lows (warmest min listed)

1875- 69F

1891- 68F

1899- 69F

1920- 67F

1925- 69F

1950- 69F

1960- 69F

1967- 68F

1975- 69F

1984- 67F

1992- 69F

2009- 67F

2014- 68F

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Also....the record low for July 24th is the warmest of the entire year, being just 52F set in 1974. Forecast is mid-50s, but I suppose if conditions are right its possible. This has certainly been the year of record lows dominating record highs....a theme not seen in years.

 

Detroit record high/low temps in 2014 (records to 1874)

Record Lows- 6

Record Low Maximums- 3

Record Highs- 1

Record High Minimums- 0

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The 12z Euro has an area of over 6,000j/kg CAPE in central Illinois into Indiana on Saturday.  It probably will be capped, but that would be a juicy atmosphere. 

 

19900829/0000 showed up on the analog list from the 12z GFS for Saturday.  It was way down on the list, but that day is essentially the reason for my interest in weather.  I can't remember coming across it on the analog list before so it's cool to see. 

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Yes, and there are likewise at least as many midnight high temps. But that happens every season, every year.

I would say that high temperatures that occur just after midnight are much less frequent than low temperatures that occur just before midnight.

I have a personal weather station and can easily tally up my stats for the year. I had 61 days this year where the low temperature was recorded prior to midnight. Conversely there only 28 days where I had a high temperature that occurred just after midnight.

I know a lot on this board like to moan over the midnight highs, but rarely a peep over the much more common low before midnight that has pretty much the same effect on a day's weather stats.

I'm curious what this ratio is at DTW? It might not be as even as you think.

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Cool this morning. All the way down to 53° at UGN. Had some condensation/dew on the car windows this morning.

 

Definitely worth a share - 

Saw this on Skilling's wall and on LOT's wall today.

 

10533803_10100473270640584_6213723886667

 

 

To start your day, an absolutely incredible lightning compilation from Elgin on Monday night. Thanks to Lorraine Mahoney for sharing with us! 

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Cool and pleasent in between weekly bouts of thunderstorms is quite nice compared to low and mid 90s and being capped daily...severe has been timid, but for the above mentioned reason, its a legit trade-off imo...18 months straight nearly of not straying far from "B+" to "A" weather seasonly for MBY

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