Chicago WX Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 3 shots at 90...can't screw this up, can we? Untitled.png 83º at LAF today versus the forecasted 90º. MEX MOS has been a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Those mayfly invasions are huge as well from Toledo to Sandusky along the lakeshore, especially in Port Clinton. Almost a guarantee car washing after coming back from there for a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Tomorrow is looking like a hot one! High 83° today. SWS issued. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL847 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-220900-WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER847 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 /947 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...A COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S ANDHIGH DEW POINTS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEXVALUES RANGING FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES. GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OFHIGH HEAT SO FAR THIS SUMMER...TUESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OFTHE YEAR FOR MOST OF THE AREA.HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN FOR THOSE AT RISK TO HEATRELATED ILLNESSES OR IF YOU WILL BE SPENDING PROLONGED PERIODS OFTIME OUTDOORS.$$RC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 83º at LAF today versus the forecasted 90º. MEX MOS has been a disaster. No surprise. Tuesday has always been the day if it happens at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Numerous sites across ND/SD/MN/NE/IA reporting 80+ DP's as of 0z. Model runs from earlier in the day appear to have been underdone as they had very small or no areas of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 On July 8th, 2003 Dhahran, Saudi Arabia had a dewpoint of 95F with an air temperature of 108F which made for a heat index value of 176F...the highest value Mr. Burt is aware of anywhere in the world. Should plug in some values and do some CAPE calculations for that. Could probably pull some 15000 J/kg readings or whatever silliness. Actually the fact that Appleton got to 101/90 is rather sickening in itself. Updrafts feeding on that would be practically supersonic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 gfsCGP_sfc_dewp_024.gif namCGP_sfc_dewp_024.gif Definitely looks like a good shot at a few 80 degree dews around here tomorrow afternoon/evening. The cold front orienting NE/SW compared to a more N/S orientation today. This should allow dews to really pool ahead of the advancing front tomorrow afternoon. Heard the first cicadas of the year tonight. Always a sign that summer is fully mature, and it will be back to school before too much longer. As a kid I always hated to hear the cicadas because summer vacation was more than halfway over lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Definitely looks like a good shot at a few 80 degree dews around here tomorrow afternoon/evening. The cold front orienting NE/SW compared to a more N/S orientation today. This should allow dews to really pool ahead of the advancing front tomorrow afternoon. Heard the first cicadas of the year tonight. Always a sign that summer is fully mature, and it will be back to school before too much longer. As a kid I always hated to hear the cicadas because summer vacation was more than halfway over lol. Last time it happened at MLI was August 2, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Should plug in some values and do some CAPE calculations for that. Could probably pull some 15000 J/kg readings or whatever silliness. Actually the fact that Appleton got to 101/90 is rather sickening in itself. Updrafts feeding on that would be practically supersonic. I did just that. I pulled the 7/14/95 00Z sounding from Green Bay (Appleton is close) and adjusted the surface readings to 101/90 and got an SBCAPE of 13000 j/kg. The GRB sounding was actually 98/77 so either the Appleton site was in the middle of a corn field with evapotranspiration in overdrive or the Td reading is highly suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Last time it happened at MLI was August 2, 2011. Sweet. I'll have to check my weather underground page to see when the last time it happened here. My software doesn't archive dews for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Last time it happened at MLI was August 2, 2011. Awesome severe wx day around here. One of the best lightning shows I can remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Sweet. I'll have to check my weather underground page to see when the last time it happened here. My software doesn't archive dews for some reason. Scratch that. Apparently they "updated" WU, and now it runs like ****. Probably should try somewhere else to upload to. Very disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Dew point came to up 74F in International Falls... 76F in MSP and 77F in DSM overnite. Low of 77F here overnite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Looks like Detroit will go the entire month of july without a low of 70+. The warmest low has been 68. I will have to check later, but that has to be very rare, especially in the age of UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 IND gained 7 degrees yesterday from the noon temp. 83 today at 12pm, so if a repeat happens...first 90 of the year will be on the board. Should have no cloud issues either. As for LAF, gonna need some help. Hoosier nervously biting his nails as we speak. Perfect pool day though. Soaking it up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 LOT newest AFD mentioned bringing down high temps a bit for day. Glad I stuck with upper 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Patented RAP on steroids run with the 15z run, showing 90s for almost everybody in the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 88F/74F an hour ago..next ob should up that...it feels disgusting outside.. Almost no wind here...wait..there is no wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 IND gained 7 degrees yesterday from the noon temp. 83 today at 12pm, so if a repeat happens...first 90 of the year will be on the board. Should have no cloud issues either. As for LAF, gonna need some help. Hoosier nervously biting his nails as we speak. Perfect pool day though. Soaking it up right now. LAF failing me at the wrong time...tied for coolest in the state right now. It'll be funny in a way if we don't make it. 850 mb temps in the low 20s, clouds not much of an issue...without knowing anything else, that alone would make you think it would be very likely to reach the 90s but those 850 mb temps don't do much good if you're not mixing that deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 LAF failing me at the wrong time...tied for coolest in the state right now. It'll be funny in a way if we don't make it. 850 mb temps in the low 20s, clouds not much of an issue...without knowing anything else, that alone would make you think it would be very likely to reach the 90s but those 850 mb temps don't do much good if you're not mixing that deep. I think the old LAF is dead. As you describe, on days like today, it used to be leading the state in temps. Now...not so much. IND 84 at 1pm. Might need a decent size intra-hour bump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 I think the old LAF is dead. As you describe, on days like today, it used to be leading the state in temps. Now...not so much. IND 84 at 1pm. Might need a decent size intra-hour bump... I wonder if soil moisture is playing a role. I just checked and LAF is wetter than almost everywhere else in the state this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 88/71 at MKE. On our way to first 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 90 looks like a lock here for the first time this summer. I guess it was meant to come to an end, but I think there's a decent chance this will be the only 90 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 84 at LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 88/71 at MKE. On our way to first 90 Are our 850 temps any higher than the likes of LAF atm? I think the reason we're ahead of them is more due to the fact that their temp fell more this morning into the 60s, while our low was 70F, but I am wondering if you can check anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Are our 850 temps any higher than the likes of LAF atm? I think the reason we're ahead of them is more due to the fact that their temp fell more this morning into the 60s, while our low was 70F, but I am wondering if you can check anyways. Warmer 925 and 850mb temps and possibly, slightly better mixing depths. 00z DVN and GRB soundings from last night showed the top of the mixed layer at 900mb, so its probably similar today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 87 at IND and 85 at LAF. IND might squeak out a 90 (wouldn't bet on that), LAF won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Hit 91F.. cold front through...north winds now. Can really tell the dew has dropped...Temp still at 90f, but more bearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 90 Isn't happening here... the streak is alive! DTX removed 90's from my forecast too. 86F instead of 88-93 as was predicted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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