Central Illinois Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 New Day 1 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Is it me or is the 18z NAM coming in more unstable? Nevermind...pulled up the comparison and it is indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Nevermind...pulled up the comparison and it is indeed. Not surprising considering the higher dew points are looking more and more likely to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Not surprising considering the higher dew points are looking more and more likely to verify. The warm sector also looks cleaner on this run...lost that precip it had before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 The warm sector also looks cleaner on this run...lost that precip it had before. Also not surprising considering the NAM has been overly convective with this potential with previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Still people in a neighborhood down the road with no power from last nites storms. That would suck major balls! All the homes around here have private wells, so no power=no running water (well pump)=no flushing toilet... Had some nasty looking clouds move south of here, but nothing more then some sprinkles. The lightning show last night was incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Uhh, something else I just realized that I think is extremely important when interpreting the NAM and GFS. Yeah, they have these large convective signals, but, especially on the NAM, look at the low-level T/Td/wind fields. They're not wiped out like we usually see with big convective complexes. We saw this signature ahead of the April 28th outbreak in Alabama and thought the implication was for linear mode, when in reality it was clustered supercells. This makes sense since supercells feature limited cold pool wake/extent and the atmosphere can recover quickly in the wake of supercell passage. I wonder if a supercell cluster may be more likely for ern IA/nrn IL/srn WI/NW IN tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Yeah the NAM def looks a bit more unstable and brings the juice further north this run like the GFS has been showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Uhh, something else I just realized that I think is extremely important when interpreting the NAM and GFS. Yeah, they have these large convective signals, but, especially on the NAM, look at the low-level T/Td/wind fields. They're not wiped out like we usually see with big convective complexes. We saw this signature ahead of the April 28th outbreak in Alabama and thought the implication was for linear mode, when in reality it was clustered supercells. This makes sense since supercells feature limited cold pool wake/extent and the atmosphere can recover quickly in the wake of supercell passage. I wonder if a supercell cluster may be more likely for ern IA/nrn IL/srn WI/NW IN tomorrow evening. Great point, I was looking at this earlier and thought the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Uhh, something else I just realized that I think is extremely important when interpreting the NAM and GFS. Yeah, they have these large convective signals, but, especially on the NAM, look at the low-level T/Td/wind fields. They're not wiped out like we usually see with big convective complexes. We saw this signature ahead of the April 28th outbreak in Alabama and thought the implication was for linear mode, when in reality it was clustered supercells. This makes sense since supercells feature limited cold pool wake/extent and the atmosphere can recover quickly in the wake of supercell passage. I wonder if a supercell cluster may be more likely for ern IA/nrn IL/srn WI/NW IN tomorrow evening. Seen pretty easily here at 21z tomorrow off the new NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Seen pretty easily here at 21z tomorrow off the new NAM. namCGP_sfc_thetae_027.gif It's even more noticeable with the big QPF blobs at 00z and 03z and the CAPE/shear progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 When I read LOTs afternoon disco, I really don't get a sense of concern. They mention the severe risk, but I thought it would be more strongly worded for tomorrow given the consistency and severity the models are showing. Waiting to see how things unfold tonight/tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Check out the surface low that travels across Wisconsin later tomorrow. Most models are advertising this to some extent but it's really noticeable on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 No hype coming from any of the usual suspects. Obviously we're all over it, but how many folks are reading this board? Few hundred? If things come in as modeled tomorrow it's going to catch just about everyone by surprise. I have family driving in from Colorado, coming in - surprise surprise - right around the time the storms are projected to come in. Should be pretty fun to deal with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 DVN AFD mentioned all severe wx modes. But yeah, not much from LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Check out the surface low that travels across Wisconsin later tomorrow. Most models are advertising this to some extent but it's really noticeable on the NAM. I kinda figured this was going to pop up eventually given the very obvious perturbation of lower surface pressures the GFS/Euro have been consistently showing. That secondary low (if it develops) is only going to increase convergence ahead of any linear development and also lead to even stronger low level shear profiles/rapid low level moisture transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Well, I haven't pulled out the SREF significant tornado ingredients for a while. It is pretty high around Davenport to Fort Madison IA tomorrow (0z). It has a value of 60. That's at least a pretty good indicator of some severe weather (not always 100% correlated with tornado outbreaks). See 15z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I kinda figured this was going to pop up eventually given the very obvious perturbation of lower surface pressures the GFS/Euro have been consistently showing. That secondary low (if it develops) is only going to increase convergence ahead of any linear development and also lead to even stronger low level shear profiles/rapid low level moisture transport. The RGEM has the mother of all secondary lows...deepens it 8 mb in 3 hours. Not sure if there's some kind of feedback issue or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 instability/shear is great in LOT's cwa but models are consistently advertising the best action west and then lifting north into S. WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 The RGEM has the mother of all secondary lows...deepens it 8 mb in 3 hours. Not sure if there's some kind of feedback issue or what. Appears to be some kind of error there, but damn. I don't even think the primary lows with the 6/12/13 or 6/5/10 events were as deep as that 18z NAM secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 The 18z NAM definitely paints a bit more of an ominous picture into the Chicago Metro late tomorrow evening. Instability looks to come a bit farther north and helicity values also increased on this run for the Chicago area. This may be a result of the secondary low that Hoosier and Andy have pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 On another note, it appears the MCS overnight across KS has really put a damper on today's potential. I'm interested to see whether or not we even get any organized convection later this evening into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Appears to be some kind of error there, but damn. I don't even think the primary lows with the 6/12/13 or 6/5/10 events were as deep as that 18z NAM secondary. 6/5/2010 eventually deepened to sub 1000 mb. I think you're right about 2013. Not that I buy it but that RGEM is nuts...989 mb in that location at the end of June is pretty much unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 On another note, it appears the MCS overnight across KS has really put a damper on today's potential. I'm interested to see whether or not we even get any organized convection later this evening into tomorrow morning. Noticed that as well. If there's little/no residual convection tomorrow morning, that will make the afternoon a pretty bad situation all around with what the models have been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 DVN AFD mentioned all severe wx modes. But yeah, not much from LOT. Hopefully we hit it harder in the early morning AFD or even this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 instability/shear is great in LOT's cwa but models are consistently advertising the best action west and then lifting north into S. WI That is what I been noticing; I was figuring they would travel W to E. But it seems, like it will travel E and NE; swiping the Northern suburbs of Illinois. I am also surprised that the local media hasn't made a big deal about this situation; last night on WGN all they said was the worst we can get is downpours and maybe high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I will definitely be watching tomorrow's potential right here at home. I would not be shocked to see a strong tornado or two... Iowa City to Davenport down towards Keokuk area... that is my best guess right now. This looks to have significant potential depending on how tonights convection unfolds. Best potential we've had in a couple years here at home I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 And we continue to raise the ceiling.... 18z GFS in northeast/eastern IA at 21z Helicity values over 1200, SBCAPE of 4200 j/kg, and EHI of nearly 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 And we continue to raise the ceiling.... 18z GFS in northeast/eastern IA at 21z Helicity values over 1200, SBCAPE of 4200 j/kg, and EHI of nearly 29 gfs holy.gif Hi Bangladesh. I've never seen a forecast sounding like that before any setup I can recall in the United States. That SRH is just so ridiculously high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.