geddyweather Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 For those composite parameter lovers, here is the Fixed Layer Sig Tor from the 00Z GFS. Well, that's impressive to say the least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 But do we see a discrete storm this far east? Might be the saving grace where the best tornado threat stays west of Chicago metro. My bet is that discrete supercells stay over in NE IA/S WI and maybe part of NW IL but I'd imagine that regardless of that there will be a considerable embedded TOR threat well into the evening. Even if it's not rush hour, 6-7PM is still not good timing for a major city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 No doubt will chase on Monday if things work out. Confidence in ongoing convection not messing things up is low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 For those composite parameter lovers, here is the Fixed Layer Sig Tor from the 00Z GFS. Wow. Can't say it's too unexpected based on what we've seen in the models, but still... Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 No doubt will chase on Monday if things work out. Confidence in ongoing convection not messing things up is low though. If I'm out, you have to be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 If I'm out, you have to be out. Yea, I learned my lesson. If I'm out, you should be in my vehicle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 My guess is we will be seeing a 30% hatched area appear first, then a MDT Risk at 1730z (similar to what happened in yesterday's day2 ). Although, has a 15% SLGT Risk ever gone straight to MDT? Don't recall something like that happening recently at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 30% hatched slight day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 ..UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST OUTPUT OF THE NCEP SREF...IN ADDITION TO THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS THREAT GENERALLY APPEARS FOCUSED EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEARING TO EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WHICH APPEAR POSSIBLE...DOWNSTREAM OF THE BASE OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING TOWARD THE REGION...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ONE OR MORE LENGTHY SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT FARTHER EAST. THIS REMAINS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY...WHICH COULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 My guess is we will be seeing a 30% hatched area appear first, then a MDT Risk at 1730z (similar to what happened in yesterday's day2 ). Although, has a 15% SLGT Risk ever gone straight to MDT? Don't recall something like that happening recently at the moment.Seems that the general idea is this 15% Slight risk is too conservative, and we ought to be at a higher-end Slight risk. Though yes, it would be quite a feat to go from basic Slight to MDT. In this case, though, I think we're already somewhere in a higher end Slight risk, should the current D3 outlook be too conservative.Edit: And looks like that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 New day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 A better written day 2 and Kerr sums things up nicely with pretty much mentioning a possible upgrade to MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 New day 1 moderate shift south to include northern MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Seems that the general idea is this 15% Slight risk is too conservative, and we ought to be at a higher-end Slight risk. Though yes, it would be quite a feat to go from basic Slight to MDT. In this case, though, I think we're already somewhere in a higher end Slight risk, should the current D3 outlook be too conservative. Edit: And looks like that's the case. Yep, there it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 New day 1 moderate shift south to include northern MO.Pretty good shift with the Moderate risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 00z Euro appears to be somewhere in between the GFS and NAM threat level wise, which is definitely concerning considering the NAM is still a pretty high end setup. It certainly has supercells going in E IA at 21z, with 4000+ J/kg CAPE to feed on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Mother of all things holy at the 06z GFS soundings...NW IL at 21z. In other news, we have a supercell tornado warned in KS at quarter after 5 in the morning right now, that's a rather ominous sign. There is really no mention of tornadoes at all in any of the morning AFDs aside from a passing mention from ILX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Monday looks great but i'd lean strongly towards a congealed high-wind/spinup/hail threat over discrete sups for Chicagoland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I don't get the lack of tornado discussion. Though the flow isn't strong, shear vectors are quite veered with height and instability is pretty high to even extreme. This setup could easily support a couple HP beasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Lots of wind damage around here...lost power for 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Some of the higher res models from 00z last night and also the 4km NAM this morning want to pop convection out in central Iowa around noon/early afternoon tomorrow. This then quickly evolves into a complex that blasts east towards the IA/IL border towards 00z. With the intense LLJ blasting into Iowa tomorrow morning storms kicking off that early doesn't seem too unreasonable. If it quickly evolves into a mature complex then we may see less of a tor threat for areas further to the east, but with so much shear there's a good chance we could see embedded sups along the line which could tor quite easily. Definitely gonna be some very high wind reports evolving out of something like this as well, especially early tomorrow evening further to the east when the cold pool really gets things going. Probably see one hell of a rear inflow jet associated with part of the complex as well. Any cells that can pop ahead of the line/complex could easily drop a tornado as well, so this is gonna be a very interesting/dangerous event to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Yeah the one "if" is do we see more pre frontal convection say near the IA/IL border. Then all bets are off and you'll have sig tor potential. Another thing, what will win out? Decent venting down shear due to the strong mid level jet to maybe give a more classic sup look of will such high PWATS cause HP rather quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Yeah the one "if" is do we see more pre frontal convection say near the IA/IL border. Then all bets are off and you'll have sig tor potential. Another thing, what will win out? Decent venting down shear due to the strong mid level jet to maybe give a more classic sup look of will such high PWATS cause HP rather quickly If we have the upper-level flow that the NAM is progging, the venting will likely win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 No denying it, tomorrow could be pretty bad if potential is fully realized. I'm really concerned about eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin. Other than Parkersburg in 2008 (which is more like central Iowa), there hasn't been a violent tornado anywhere in that region since 1990 and tomorrow is probably as good a shot as any setup in recent years. The last time I posted about somebody's violent tornado drought was on March 1, 2012 in regards to Indiana and we know what happened the next day. I hope it doesn't pan out this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Dew points across MO and eastern KS between 72-77 with several obs higher than that. Moisture won't be overdone in model land like DVN had thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Stuff in IA not looking so hot WRT satellite imagery, have to wonder what (if any) implications we could see tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Just after Hoosier mentioned Parkersburg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 given the initiation point trends and overwhelming model tendency to congeal things into a semi-linear complex, i'll be surprised if we see a single TOR in LOT's CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 New day 2 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 given the initiation point trends and overwhelming model tendency to congeal things into a semi-linear complex, i'll be surprised if we see a single TOR in LOT's CWA Are you tempting fate like you did with the no hail over 1" call a few weeks back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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