AppsRunner Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 We're doomed.. RIP Madison WI and wisconsinwx: Edit: Using the SB Parcel we get an EHI of 19.0, so that's pretty high I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Is the GFS trying to resolve Pac-Man at the southern end of that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Edit: Using the SB Parcel we get an EHI of 19.0, so that's pretty high I guess. Cracking a 20+ again north of JVL too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Oh man. Bells better start going off. 0z GFS very scary and impressive on Monday. Big time instability nearing 6000 j/kg by 21z along the IA/IL border in very extreme high theta-e air coupled with dews in the mid 70s....morning convection goes bye bye bye before a rapid build up of instability and then boom, explosive development along the front. But....this is the first run to show discrete development out ahead of everything in a very tornado prone environment (take sounding east of Clinton, IA) and with decent 2-4mb p-falls/3hr...sfc winds stay southerly to slightly backed over northern IL below 50-60kts of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 6/18/10 seems to have solidified itself at the top of the CIPS analog list almost across the board. Shows up on both the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley analogs tomorrow, and then for this area on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Chicago Storm, Thundersnow, Cyclone, et al. have to be drooling at the opportunity for a cheap chase. Nothing about chasing in Illinois is cheap when it comes to gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Oh man. Bells better start going off. 0z GFS very scary and impressive on Monday. Big time instability nearing 6000 j/kg by 21z along the IA/IL border in very extreme high theta-e air coupled with dews in the mid 70s....morning convection goes bye bye bye before a rapid build up of instability and then boom, explosive development along the front. But....this is the first run to show discrete development out ahead of everything in a very tornado prone environment (take sounding east of Clinton, IA) and with decent 2-4mb p-falls/3hr...sfc winds stay southerly to slightly backed over northern IL below 50-60kts of shear. Meanwhile the NAM seems to keep stuff hanging around through the day which has an impact on instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Meanwhile the NAM seems to keep stuff hanging around through the day which has an impact on instability. NAM's convective scheme promotes this, I don't believe it for a second though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 NAM's convective scheme promotes this, I don't believe it for a second though. This. I can name days it did bad even with the 12z run the day of. GFS staying consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Nothing about chasing in Illinois is cheap when it comes to gas. It is when you only have to drive an hour or two away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 RIP Madison WI and wisconsinwx: That wind profile on the sounding is utterly ridiculous for anytime of year, let alone almost into July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 NAM's convective scheme promotes this, I don't believe it for a second though. If the day 2 outlook is conservative then I guess we'll know why. GFS solution would warrant a day 2 moderate risk imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 If the day 2 outlook is conservative then I guess we'll know why. GFS solution would warrant a day 2 moderate risk imo. I think you can count on it given the nonsense that was the D3 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Nothing about chasing in Illinois is cheap when it comes to gas. One of the best chase areas based on road network, cell coverage, and viewing/terrain. Anyways, GFS does seem to be the most consistent that last several runs. Timing sucks for MI area, but whats new haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 If the day 2 outlook is conservative then I guess we'll know why. GFS solution would warrant a day 2 moderate risk imo. Basing a forecast upon the NAM is setup to a huge failure. I expect at least a 30% hatched which should have came out yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 I think Monday will eventually be a MDT but I'd guess a 30% hatched is coming. Depends who is writing it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 6/18/10 seems to have solidified itself at the top of the CIPS analog list almost across the board. Shows up on both the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley analogs tomorrow, and then for this area on Monday. Decent match overall but low level shear looks stronger this time. 6/18 wasn't much of a tornado producer (the day before certainly was though) and this one should have higher potential in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 There's another analog that come to mind for this event. It was a few years ago. The t'storms produced a massive light show a good 25-50+ miles away from the actual t'storms (once the sun set) and dumped several inches of rain from training across Flint/Saginaw. It was also in the wake of a massive heat wave. I'm trying to see if I can find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 There's another analog that come to mind for this event. It was a few years ago. The t'storms produced a massive light show a good 50+ miles away from the actual t'storms and dumped several inches of rain from training across Flint/Saginaw. It was also in the wake of a massive heat wave. I'm trying to see if I can find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Decent match overall but low level shear looks stronger this time. 6/18 wasn't much of a tornado producer (the day before certainly was though) and this one should have higher potential in that regard. Agreed. I'm just somewhat impressed on how it is a top analog on CIPS across two different regions for both tomorrow and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 There's another analog that come to mind for this event. It was a few years ago. The t'storms produced a massive light show a good 50+ miles away from the actual t'storms and dumped several inches of rain from training across Flint/Saginaw. It was also in the wake of a massive heat wave. I'm trying to see if I can find it. August 2nd, 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Really not much has changed from last night regarding the setup for Monday. Conditionally a huge setup with such strong shear (you could probably say extreme for late June) over strong instability. At this point there's really no question as to whether there's going to be significant severe Monday. The big question is will the tornado potential be fully realized relative to the significant looking tornadic forecast shear profiles/hodos we've seen the last several days from the GFS. If the main instability axis is allowed to fully destabilize without morning clouds/precip then this is looking like a truly high-end event to me in both tornado and destructive straight-line wind potential. If there happens to be lots of festering morning convection and associated cloud cover then we would likely see something evolve out of that into a high-end wind event further downstream with much less tornado potential. This has potential to be a significant mid-summer tornado setup over the central corn belt. The combination of strong MLJ/LLJ/very strong summertime instability is pretty unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Oh man. Bells better start going off. 0z GFS very scary and impressive on Monday. Big time instability nearing 6000 j/kg by 21z along the IA/IL border in very extreme high theta-e air coupled with dews in the mid 70s....morning convection goes bye bye bye before a rapid build up of instability and then boom, explosive development along the front. But....this is the first run to show discrete development out ahead of everything in a very tornado prone environment (take sounding east of Clinton, IA) and with decent 2-4mb p-falls/3hr...sfc winds stay southerly to slightly backed over northern IL below 50-60kts of shear.Both the GFS and NAM are pretty terrifying. Take El Reno or Coleridge and put them over Chicago metro during rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Hello everyone, longtime lurker on here, first time posting. Don't have much to contribute to what's already been said, other than Monday's looking pretty fun per GFS projections. Hoping to get in on the action from around O'Hare here in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Nothing about chasing in Illinois is cheap when it comes to gas. Company car Rather impressive setup, really for any time of the year. Certainly liking where I am sitting to see some good action, or to take a short drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Both the GFS and NAM are pretty terrifying. Take El Reno or Coleridge and put them over Chicago metro during rush hour. But do we see a discrete storm this far east? Might be the saving grace where the best tornado threat stays west of Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 August 2nd, 2006. Actually, I take that back. The evolution of the convection with that event seems plausible for this one as well, but the synoptic setup was different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Both the GFS and NAM are pretty terrifying. Take El Reno or Coleridge and put them over Chicago metro during rush hour. I'm wondering if the timing there might be a bit later than that. Either way, there's probably going to be a substantial discrete or embedded supercell tornado threat at least into the mid evening hours as CINH doesn't really look prohibitive at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 For those composite parameter lovers, here is the Fixed Layer Sig Tor from the 00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 For those composite parameter lovers, here is the Fixed Layer Sig Tor from the 00Z GFS. Considering that is the more conservative of the sig tor parameters, that's rather intimidating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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