Powerball Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 The Euro is pretty incredible for Monday as well and it continues potential after dark maintaining good instability as the LLJ cranks up across lower Michigan, not to mention at 06z there is a 991mb low near Marquette, the wind fields with this system are going to be damn impressive for this time of year. It would be nice, for our benefit locally, if we can speed things up some. As it stands now, most of the activity here looks to happen between 06z and 12z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 It would be nice, for our benefit locally, if we can speed things up some. As it stands now, most of the activity here looks to happen between 06z and 12z Tuesday. I am seeing 00-06z especially with the GFS, plus it is summer time so storms especially big MCSs aren't going to evaporate when the sun goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 Will depend on storm morphology at first but really think the sky is the limit for Monday If we destabilize which I think we will. Maybe an even more intense version of 8/4/08 given the stronger shear and instability and moisture will be close to the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I know we're in NAM clown range but check out the backed low level flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Will depend on storm morphology at first but really think the sky is the limit for Monday If we destabilize which I think we will. Maybe an even more intense version of 8/4/08 given the stronger shear and instability and moisture will be close to the same. Yeah I'm really pumped for this assuming everything goes as planned. FWIW the CIPS analogs have 6-18-10 as the number one analog after the 12 UTC model runs. After yesterday evening's 0 UTC suite it had flipped to 7-3-1984 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I know we're in NAM clown range but check out the backed low level flow namCGP_sfc_temp_057.gif namCGP_sfc_temp_060.gif If the NAM is catching onto a backed low level flow already, that is a huge sign because usually it is late to the game with this. It is still low on the dew points east of there however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 I know we're in NAM clown range but check out the backed low level flow namCGP_sfc_temp_057.gif namCGP_sfc_temp_060.gif Even the GFS had decent p-falls throughout the afternoon around here keeping winds at least southerly. And with almost westerly flow at H5, that's plenty of turning. Any discrete storm before upscale growth will be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I am seeing 00-06z especially with the GFS, plus it is summer time so storms especially big MCSs aren't going to evaporate when the sun goes down. To be fair as far as the GFS, that 12z run was probably the fastest run yet in terms of convection getting in here sooner. There's plenty of time for things to change though (which includes factoring in mesoscale influences). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 To be fair as far as the GFS, that 12z run was probably the fastest run yet in terms of convection getting in here sooner. There's plenty of time for things to change though (which includes factoring in mesoscale influences). Euro and NAM have similar timing. I mean sure I'd love to be in N IL's shoes on this one but once the MCS grows upscale it should accelerate towards us. We are in a good position just not the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 nice to see so many nice analogs popping up…we'll very much be at the mercy of potential mesoscale spoilers but things look good by this region's standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Moderate risk for NE and IA tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Day 2 moderate for most of IA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 New day 2 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014VALID 291200Z - 301200Z...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERNNEBRASKA AND MUCH OF IOWA......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRALPLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION......SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEWTORNADOES...AND SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR PROBABLE SUNDAY INTOSUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLEAND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION....SYNOPSIS...A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THENORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAYAFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO MANITOBA/ONTARIOEARLY IN THE DAY. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EASTWARD ANDRESULT IN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THENORTHERN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION CONCURRENTWITH THE INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILLEXTEND FROM TX EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THECONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THEUPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ANDPROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT....CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYREGION...ALTHOUGH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATIONOF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENTSUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OFSEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDSAND A FEW TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSSPORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYREGION SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY... LIFTINGSLOWLY NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS TOBE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ALONG ANDSOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SURFACE-BASEDINSTABILITY /MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG/ IS NEVERTHELESSEXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AVERAGING 50 KTSWILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THUNDERSTORMINITIATION APPEARING MOST PROBABLE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERNIOWA BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERNNEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SUGGEST AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FORSUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGINGWINDS. LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THEFRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.WITH TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITHSWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR HAIL AND A FEWTORNADOES. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MODERATE RISK AREA ARE LIKELY INSUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE LOCATION OF THEFRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION.ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATELYUNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSSTHE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HAVE KEPT SVR PROBABILITIES IN THATAREA.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY LEAD TOADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OFNORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A RISK FOR LARGEHAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUNTING.. 06/28/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Will depend on storm morphology at first but really think the sky is the limit for Monday If we destabilize which I think we will. Maybe an even more intense version of 8/4/08 given the stronger shear and instability and moisture will be close to the same. Just a little trip down memory lane. The 00z August 5 ILX sounding is one of the most unstable I've ever seen. Shear definitely looks stronger this time, especially in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 nice to see so many nice analogs popping up…we'll very much be at the mercy of potential mesoscale spoilers but things look good by this region's standards A given, as it is in most cases, especially at this range. But you and those to your immediate west have to like where you sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 A given, as it is in most cases, especially at this range. But you and those to your immediate west have to like where you sit. Popped a sounding very near Chicago with an EHI near 16 off the 12z GFS for 00z Tuesday. If some sort of pre-frontal trough/confluence evolves out of this (assuming mesoscale at least partially cooperates), there's almost certainly going to be bedlam given the strength of the wind fields and thermos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Popped a sounding very near Chicago with an EHI near 16 off the 12z GFS for 00z Tuesday. If some sort of pre-frontal trough/confluence evolves out of this (assuming mesoscale at least partially cooperates), there's almost certainly going to be bedlam given the strength of the wind fields and thermos. Chicago Storm, Thundersnow, Cyclone, et al. have to be drooling at the opportunity for a cheap chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 Just a little trip down memory lane. The 00z August 5 ILX sounding is one of the most unstable I've ever seen. Shear definitely looks stronger this time, especially in the low levels. Yep. We probably won't sniff that instability but the shear both in low levels and 0-6km shear will be stronger on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 Chicago Storm, Thundersnow, Cyclone, et al. have to be drooling at the opportunity for a cheap chase. I'll be out there. Any discrete storm at onset will have tornadoes. Leaning more towards closer to the IA border for the tor threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Chicago Storm, Thundersnow, Cyclone, et al. have to be drooling at the opportunity for a cheap chase. I still think it might end up coming in slower than the GFS projects, which means DVN could be right in the trolley tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 White Sox are at home on Monday evening. That could be interesting and by then things could be congealed into one big honkin mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 White Sox are at home on Monday evening. That could be interesting and by then things could be congealed into one big honkin mess. Should be relatively easy to get 6,000 people to safety, if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Should be relatively easy to get 6,000 people to safety, if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 DVN thinks model dewpoints may be too high ... MONDAY COULD BE THE TROUBLE DAY/CHC FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OUT OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR AIRMASS RECOVERY BY THE TIME A SEASONABLY STRONG WAVE/TROF SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY FCST BULK SHEAR PROFILES OF 50-60+ KTS...THE AREA BECOMING INCREASING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100 KT UPPER JET HEADING INTO THE GRT LKS...AND PROJECTED SBCAPES OF 3500-5000 J/KG DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF HEATING AND ACTUAL SFC LAYER DPTS COULD MAKE FOR AN EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN OR JUST WEST/UPSTREAM OF THE DVN CWA. ALL MODES OF SVR POSSIBLE. THE MODELS ADVERTISE SFC DPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH AND WITH TEMPS NEAR 90...THAT/S WHERE THE 5K CAPES ARE COMING FROM. BUT TONING THE THERMODYNAMICS DOWN SOME STILL PAINT A VERY UNSETTLED DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Dews are currently in the 70s here and we've had plenty of rain lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 I don't see the upper 70s the speak of but I still wouldn't rule out 73-75 dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I don't see the upper 70s the speak of but I still wouldn't rule out 73-75 dew points. Yeah, we basically have those values today in IA/IL. Substituting with those dewpoints would make the apocalyptic GFS soundings a little less so but still very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 First heavy rain shower moving through as I type.... A bunch of people just walked past not 5 minutes ago.... fools Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 First heavy rain shower moving through as I type.... A bunch of people just walked past not 5 minutes ago.... fools I'll be hitting your town up tomorrow and Monday, hopefully I don't bring the NWOH storm shield with me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 We're doomed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.