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June 28-July 1 Severe Threat


Thundersnow12

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N IN/SW MI portion of the line still cranking from IWX.

68mph gust at SBN.

 

KSBN 010449Z AUTO 33031G59KT 3/4SM R27L/2400VP6000FT +TSRA BR SQ SCT015 BKN023 OVC029 19/18 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 31059/0443 WSHFT 0435 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB33 TSB31 P0028

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Line looks like it's trying to bow out. Atmosphere still juiced here on the OH/IN border

Definetly, it's pushing into an area that hasn't been touched since mid this morning. If it gets into OH, there wasnt even much of a risk for much at all today/yesterday. Even though there's no jacked up CAPE values like in IA/IL, 1500-2500j/kgs is enough to sustain a nighttime MCS

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Still calm as can be here on the eastside. Radar seems to be perking up a bit to the west (Oxford down to Williamsport) though.

That little line sweeping in from the west is interesting. Probably won't be much, but looks a little goofy on radar...

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Big uptick in lightning out my window to the west in the last couple minutes.

 

Seeing the flashes in the distant west here now too. Sorta disappointed the first returns had nothing of the sort. My expectations are low though. :lol:

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MCS maintenance probabilities decrease dramatically east of far western Ohio, FWIW. Someone should pull the the archived values from this evening to see if there was a strong signal for the second line.

The MCS maintenance parameter did a good job of indicating that the second line wouldn't be fizzling anytime soon:

 

post-525-0-01133400-1404192244_thumb.png

 

It wouldn't surprise me to see that parameter increase a bit across NW Ohio as the 500mb jet streak, and hence better bulk shear, continues to head east. However, the MCS will slowly be moving into slightly weaker instability as it outruns the better pool of instability across central/southern IL/IN, and the RAP suggests the 500mb jet streak will run more SW-NE overnight, meaning it will eventually outrun decent shear, so it will probably fall apart somewhere near the I-75 corridor. We'll see.

 

Edit: I could see this maintaining all the way across southeastern MI where there will be some better shear, but I don't expect it to do much in NW Ohio east of I-75.

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This is weird... it's still like soup outside here, and the storm is literally disintegrating to my W before it gets here. I'm wondering if the second line is going to try to build north at all. Right now, it should pass several miles south of here. But it's wild how fast the first line fell apart.

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New WW should be popping up out ahead of this thing for north and western OH, ern lower MI pretty soon...

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NE INDIANA...NW OH...SE LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381...

VALID 010524Z - 010630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT

PERIOD ACROSS NE IND...NW OH AND SE LOWER MI. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE

NEEDED SHORTLY TO THE EAST OF WW 381.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE SEGMENT MOVING QUICKLY TO

THE EAST AT 40 TO 45 KT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS EWD ALONG A

GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NW OH AND SE LOWER MI. SFC

DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F ALONG AND

SOUTHEAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS WRN LOWER MI THAT IS

ENHANCING LIFT. IN ADDITION TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THE

DETROIT WSR-88D VWP SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 0-6 KM

SHEAR NEAR 50 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS

THE LINE MOVES TO THE EAST OF WW 381. FOR THIS REASON...A NEW WW

WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY AHEAD OF THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/01/2014

post-4544-0-09398500-1404192801_thumb.gi

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Man the line is just absolutely cranking from Kalamazoo to West of Fort Wayne. This thing should keep going for a while too.

 

Kalamazoo gusted to 66mph

 

KAZO 010527Z AUTO 29018G57KT 1/2SM +TSRA FG SQ BKN006 OVC048 19/18 A2984 RMK AO2 PK WND 27057/0518 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB17 TSB19 P0084 T01940178 RVRNO

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WOUS64 KWNS 010541

WOU2

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 382

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

145 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MIC059-091-093-099-115-125-147-161-163-011200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0382.140701T0545Z-140701T1200Z/

MI

. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HILLSDALE LENAWEE LIVINGSTON

MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND

ST. CLAIR WASHTENAW WAYNE

OHC003-033-039-043-051-063-069-077-095-123-125-137-143-147-161-

171-173-175-011200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0382.140701T0545Z-140701T1200Z/

OH

. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN CRAWFORD DEFIANCE

ERIE FULTON HANCOCK

HENRY HURON LUCAS

OTTAWA PAULDING PUTNAM

SANDUSKY SENECA VAN WERT

WILLIAMS WOOD WYANDOT

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ142-143-144-162-163-164-444-011200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0382.140701T0545Z-140701T1200Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

ST. CLAIR RIVER

DETROIT RIVER

LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)

MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH

RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH

THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH

DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM

OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER

RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO

US-CANADIAN BORDER

THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO

US-CANADIAN BORDER

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI

ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE...

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GRR's warning for Battle Creek, which I have a slight issue with...

 

 

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 300 AM EDT

* AT 119 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VICKSBURG...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLE
           TORNADO.
 

 

If you are putting a tornado potential in the warning, then you should warn for a tornado in my opinion, or handle it like IWX with tornado warnings on the mesovortices with severe covering the rest of the line.

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GRR's warning for Battle Creek, which I have a slight issue with...

 

 

 

If you are putting a tornado potential in the warning, then you should warn for a tornado in my opinion, or handle it like IWX with tornado warnings on the mesovortices with severe covering the rest of the line.

Yeah, that's not a very good way of doing things...

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